Ukraine Invasion: Part 23

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, thanks for the company

We need another miracle I think. I think about and hope for their release every day.

I get the feeling that the sending of 8000 troops is being presented as a normal, if not slightly upgraded, exercise but that there is no denying the potential psychological impact in an already paranoid Putin.

Governor of Lviv signed off his morning briefing with “have a nice day everyone! everything will be fine” - very sage advice I feel.

I love this

Hi 👋

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Olga Tokariuk @ olgatokariuk

Day 65 of Ukraine resistance. Russia launched missiles on Kyiv during the UN Secretary General visit, showing its true attitude to diplomacy and international organizations. At least one person died. An attempt to evacuate civilians from Azovstal in Mariupol planned for today

Yes. I also like the saying:

"Today is the tomorrow we worried about yesterday, and all is well."

Victims of the war

14-year-old athlete Alina Perehudova and her mother died in Mariupol as a result of shelling by Russian occupation forces, the local city council reported.

At her age, the girl already achieved considerable success in weightlifting (national gold) & had high hopes for the future
twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1519965825205252098?t=iYxHU83iZN1OMNva8gHuKw&s=19

this is vira hyrych, a ukrainian journalist. she was killed by yesterday night‘s russian airstrike at her own kyiv apartment
twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1519966726460428288?t=iYxHU83iZN1OMNva8gHuKw&s=19

That made me tear a little. Not that I need any comforting. I am in awe of such tremendous optimism in the face of unceasing horror.

Very long thread but interesting

“If Gerasimov goes to Ukraine, and no-one replaces him, who will oversee overall Russian military operations and development in short term, as well as any mobilisation?

Does it mean Russian military strategy will improve or get worse?”

twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1519913057455001601?t=mQbKtIrFTYINrDbLgsz8mg&s=19

It is 64 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Today, an examination of the implications of Gerasimov ‘taking charge’ of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 1/20

Thank you for the new thread, and to everyone for all the contributions including the new ones since last night.

Been pondering dangerous, I know : I wonder if Ukraine could end up being Russia's Vietnam?

The US went in to Vietnam to stop the domino effect of countries "falling" to Communism. It failed abjectly at that objective and had to leave with its tail between its legs - even though it was supposedly the most powerful country in the world and, initially at least, had the support of the people and had the draft .

Russia has gone into Ukraine to stop the siren call of the West (forget about the fallacious excuse of "denazifying" Ukraine). Will it ultimately obviously fail and have to leave ignominiously - even the eastern regions and Crimea?

The difference is that the war in Ukraine seems to be one man's hubris, who also has control over the media and doesn't allow protest.

But after hubris comes catharsis.

Yeh @TargusEasting this is such a true saying! Tomorrow is promised to no man and the Ukrainian’s seem to get that in spades.

Ukrainecast last night was taking about the role of artists in understanding war and trauma as well as hope. Worth a listen as ever.

Euromaiden claiming that a marine commander has been assassinated.

Euromaidan PR
EuromaidanPR
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54m
In Mariupol, the commander of the reconnaissance unit of the 810th Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet of russia with the rank of captain, a certain Aleksey Okhota, was assassinated.
PR

One for Notimagain:
·
4h
11 Ukrainian pilots are currently taking F-16 training courses. "It is just a pleasure to operate such a machine! Absolutely new philosophy of flight, incredible avionics, everything the pilot may need," says one of the #Ukrainian pilots.

@Ijsbear

That Euromaiden quote about the F-16s is interesting to say the least since it implies a change to previously stated policy..(which was along the lines that F-16s would be delivered to countries which decided to transfer MiGs etc to Ukraine)...

www.military.com/daily-news/2022/04/01/ukraine-aims-high-request-f-15-and-f-16-jets-heres-why-it-probably-wont-happen.html

Ilia Ponomarenko

So!
^🇵🇱Poland sends to Ukraine over 200 T-72 tanks (prolly T-72A and T-72M1) several dozen IFVs (BMP-1s?), BM-21 Grads, 2S1 Gvozdika, WB Electronics UAVs, and air-to-air missiles for MiG-29s and Su-27s.
In fact, it has donated at least 25% of its 808-strong total tank arsenal.^
twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1519992989057261568?t=XcTFvf4t9plGzATzt7sN_g&s=19

Kyiv Independent

⚡️BBC: Russian occupiers abduct 2 British volunteers in Ukraine.

Two British volunteers were detained by Russian forces at a checkpoint in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on April 25, as they were trying to rescue a family from a Russian-occupied settlement there, BBC reported.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61268817

I see the UN are saying this horrible war could go on for years.
A few weeks ago we were being told Russia would run out of munitions in weeks, and that financial sanctions would cripple the Russian economy.
Where has Russia found this new strength to continue?

....because the leaders & generals in Russia are old men and bloody minded . And as a large country with conscription, they have plenty of cannon fodder So even with low replenishment of tanks and munitions (and there are grey/black market ways of getting hold of new supplies ), they have plenty of bodies (literally ) to throw at the "problem" as they perceive a sovereign Ukraine

Is it possible the strikes on Kyiv and the 'detaining' of British aid workers is a response to all the UK war talk this week? Kyiv was ostensibly left alone recently until last night, and the Russian spokespeople threatened "Kyiv and European capitols" in the last day or two. Not sure if this counts as a "proportionate response" but those missiles came out of nowhere 😔

Na. They'd have done it anyway.

'The defence ministry in Moscow said in its daily briefing on Friday that two “high-precision, long-range airbased weapons” had destroyed the production buildings of the Artyom missile and space enterprise in the Ukrainian capital on Thursday night.'

It' s the "high-precision" description that makes me think of what Putin has been threatening this week. A US-backed journalist was killed.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/russia-carries-out-airstrike-on-kyiv-during-un-chief-visit-ukraine-antonio-guterres

Have they got enough bodies? This year's conscription is one of the smallest on record, thanks to Russia's demographic crisis. On top of that, morale is low and people are dodging the draft, either through bribery or injuring themselves.

I can see a number of possibilities, including a long-running 'cold war' with an untidy ceasefire, but I am not convinced Russia can maintain this level of troop and equipment loss indefinitely.

No doubt, and I think less and less today that we should be watching what we say. If not now, and all that.