Mark Hertling AT MarkHertling
A few weeks ago, as the "new phase" was being discussed, I suggested we should look for a couple things happening in the east and south of Ukraine. We're very early in that new phase & there are indicators those things are happening. Let's review what we should see.
First, let's talk the Russian army (RU from here out). RU has attempted to regenerate the forces mauled in the 1st phase. If they follow their doctrine, regeneration usually means new personnel, repair/exchange of equipment, resupply, rest & likely a lot of new leaders.
Given the time & desire of Putin to have a May victory, it's likely little of that happened. RU likely has either low-strength units, several units consolidated into one, or units poorly manned. Reports indicate 2-man tank crews (3 needed) & BMP w/ few infantry in back.
What RU has done is reinforce with lots (repeat, LOTS) of tube and rocket artillery. That is according to RU doctrine. To penetrate an enemy's defense, RU uses mass artillery barrages all along the front. They've been doing that. And it is deadly.
There's two ways to counter massive artillery strikes. 1. Get out from under it (giving up land) 2. Conduct counterfire with your own artillery after pinpointing the enemy's guns with radar.
While Ukraine's army (UA from here out) have some Russian 152 mm cannons, and they are receiving LOTS of guns (155 mm cannons) from the US & NATO, there's 2 problems.
1. UA is running low on 152 (Russian) ammo
2. The western guns/ammo ain't there yet.
Yeah, yeah, I know AT PentagonPresSec said the guns/radars are arriving fast, and some are already there. But they're not all at the front, with the ammo, just yet. Things just don't magically move to the front & get into the fight immediately in combat.
A seque: during combat our division fielded MRAPs (mine-resisted ambush protective) trucks, due to an increased IED threat. Trucks. Not hard to learn. Not hard to drive. No triggers to pull. It took us awhile. Fact: fielding ANY new equipment to units in combat takes time.
So there will be counterfire fights between RU and UA, but it might be awhile. So UA has to give up ground. When they do that, the RU will send in "reconnaissance in force" or RFI. Small combat units to take limited objectives in multiple places.
That's what we're seeing now in several locations in the east & south. Lots of Russian artillery barrages against the front line, followed by smaller RU combat units attempting to seize terrain/cities/critical objectives. RU artillery is working. The RU maneuver forces are undermanned, not well supplied, not well led, are on ground they're not familiar with, and they don't do maneuver all that well. So we're seeing RU forces temporarily take ground, then being pushed back by the smart, better led, more adaptive active defense of the UA.
Finally...we're about 7-10 days (at best) into this second phase. It will go for awhile. New forces are feeling each other out in the east. RU will initially outgun with arty, then it may become a big arty duel. But UA maneuver force will outperform the RU.