Ukraine Invasion: Part 23

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, thanks for the company

That Vice article about US extremists and Russia is well worth reading for the "whither next".

There are a lot of white supremacists worldwide who see Putin and Alexander Dugin as their spiritual leaders.

On the day of the invasion, Trump's guru Steve Bannon said: “Ukraine’s not even a country. It’s kind of a concept. It’s not even a country .. It’s just a corrupt area that the Clinton’s turned into a colony where they can steal money out of.”

twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1496977267188281344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496977267188281344%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vice.com%2Fen%2Farticle%2Fwxd7zn%2Fus-extremists-putin-nicholas-fuentes

Just reflecting on the benefit of sabre rattling for Putin. If the number of anxiety driven threads in MN about WW3 are any reflection on the average western population I think we can safely assume Putin’s tactic has succeeded in sowing fear.

PMK and thanks to regulars for updates.

Russia has no right to be sitting as one power in the UN Security Council. It’s making a mockery of the security bit.

And of course all fascists and wannabe fascists will be loving Putin. That absolute power to inflict your will (and pain) on others is what they’re desperately seeking.

@Igotjelly its certainly rattled me. I still ponder how we know what is sabre rattling anymore, I guess that’s why it works but USA seem to be continuing with what they were doing despite the uptick.

Slight change of subject but I’ve just discovered this story on BBC news about trained dolphins being used off Sevastopol by Russia - it’s possibly one of the more bizarre things I’ve heard about?! (Hopefully the link works) anyway I didn’t realise that a beluga whale wearing a Russian harness was also labelled a spy a few years ago too - is BBC pulling my leg?!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61252785?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=626a4829b1e16c43aefe793a%26Russia%20deploys%20trained%20dolphins%20to%20Crimea%20-%20US%20Naval%20Institute%262022-04-28T12%3A10%3A52.798Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:eb4244ac-a1c5-419c-a826-e096338a9583&pinned_post_asset_id=626a4829b1e16c43aefe793a&pinned_post_type=share

This is a fascinating thread. I hadn't even thought about this.

Uki Goni AT ukigoni
Almost all the countries in Putin’s sights after Ukraine are presided by young energetic women. That must really upset the near septuagenarian in Moscow.
Moldova - AT sandumaiamd
Estonia - AT kajakallas
Lithuania - AT IngridaSimonyte
Finland - AT marinsanna
Not forgetting AT SwedishPM

In my studies of Nazism I have seen how some scholars considered it a form of “reactionary modernism”, using modern technology to combat modern ideas of democracy, either militarily or through social engineering.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and probably soon Moldova, hark back to Nazi attempts at “social engineering,” redrawing borders to fit delusional ideas of nationhood, race, language, trying to recreate in the physical world the “Ukraine doesn’t exist” of their imagination.

The same holds true for the imaginary enemies of despots. They seek through war to call into physical existence the imaginary enemies of their overheated fantasy, in Putin’s case, a secret Western cabal hell-bent on Russia’s annihilation since practically the dawn of time.

Just like lonesome children need imaginary friends to play with, lonesome despots need imaginary enemies to justify their continued relevance and existence.

I survived such a dictatorship, one that indulged elder male fantasies of social engineering, via the annihilation of young Argentines who had succumbed to “decadent” ideas of cultural change in the 1960s, young people who threatened “Western and Christian” civilization.

The same markers were present, the construction of an imaginary enemy that threatened the existence of an imaginary Argentina, images of which looped in the minds of delusional generals, and the use of violence to call forth into the physical plane their febrile visions.

All the above to underline that youth is the natural enemy of creaky, stiff-jointed male despotism. Putin is a dinosaur from the 20th century, selling oil that feeds 19th century technologies, with a mind fused solid around the dead concept of a long-perished Russian empire.

The youth and intellectual modernity that the leaders of Ukraine and that these female leaders in Moldova, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland and Sweden represent is anathema to backward-looking despots like Putin. I have lived under, and survived, men like him. At huge cost.

Add in Zelensky who did a comedy which was anti-corruption and pro-democracy and between them, these women and one man represent just about everything that an aging toxic masculine man with a fragile ego will hate. Its really intriguing to see it pointed out actually.

You just think about how insecure and threatened Putin is by that. None of them have to do anything to Russia. They just have to exist to be a problem to someone who needs imaginary enemies. (I love how despots need imaginary enemies not imaginary friends. I guess they aren't used to having any!)

Its also interesting how Putin thinks they must be somehow weak for it too. And Zelensky pulls a blinder and actually has a backbone and he doesn't like it. Putin literally wants to pick on girls and the little scrawny tv guy who dances (obviously gay. Like the battalion of Mariupol defenders who were ughhh gay yet the Russians complained cos they were ughhh fighting back).

It'd actually be hilarious if it was a comedy and not this ghastly reality.

I don’t know, the threads I have seen it’s been people with existing anxiety problems freaking out while the majority of posters have been pretty calm.
And I would think Mumsnet would be more at the anxious end compared to the average?

I think im at the eyerolling point with them tbh.

By the time we got to October, it was already on track for the scenario we now find ourselves in. Thats when Putin decided by all accounts. Ukraine was fucked from that point and so was the west. We were locked into whatever outcome we now get because all roads were going to led to these type of threats of nukes.

Either it will happen. Or it won't.

I think I'm very much of a fait accompli with it. It was Putin’s decision alone to invade and it will be Putin’s decision alone to nuke/not to nuke. Not the west.

Might as well get on with living whilst he sorts his shit out.

Kyiv Independent
Polish media: Spanish army ship arrives in Poland with 200 tons of military assistance for Ukraine.

The 149-meters-long Ysabel carries the largest delivery of military aid that Spain has ever provided to the Ukrainian armed forces: weapons, 30 trucks and 10 off-road vehicles.

Lbc AT lbc.
'This is about just a grubby little man who has stolen a ton of money and wants to make sure he can get away with it.'

Anti-corruption campaigner and author Bill Browder on the Ukraine war.

As long as he gets his May 9th Parade he will feel like the 'Big I Am'...

Bill Browder always worth listening to.

.

Loving the name of this account

Russian Bridges Go Boom! AT BruckenRuski

Impact of APR28 bridge destruction by UA

All railroad-based resupply of RU in southern Ukraine cut to...

Melitopol, Enerhodar, NovaKakhovka (northeastern Kherson Oblast via Kakhovka hydroelectric dam & rail x-ing), Tokmak, Berydansk and Mariupol (from west)

See Map. This is in reference to a map destroyed today near Melitopol.

Trent Telenko AT TrentTelenko
This is called "Preparing the Battlefield" by Ukraine.

Let's talk about logistics, Starlink & Ukraine's southern front.

Ukraine's destruction of these railway bridges require far more exposure of the declining Russian tactical truck fleet to Ukrainian ATGM/Mortar/Drone kill teams in the south.

This is a defacto operational truck lift per day kill in terms of delivered supplies at Kherson.

It also exposes Russian Railway Troops trying to fix those bridges to Ukraine's new loitering munitions.

Like the Polish WARMATE. The US Switchblade 300. Or Switchblade 600 that has the same anti-tank warhead as a Javelin missile

Michael Kofman makes clear in this latest 'War on the Rocks' podcast that Russia at its current level of mobilization has just one more offensive in them, in Donbas & is perilously short of infantry, lots of reasons.

The offensive in the Donbas & shortage of Russian infantry means Ukraine can infest the countryside in the South with those missile armed ATV/Buggy's you see up thread.

Moving at night with Western NVG & hiding during the day means RuAF helicopters can't interdict them

With AT elonmusk Starlink they can communicate with Ukrainian high command to coordinate & synchronize strikes across the whole of the southern theater with post-strike video uploaded in short digital encrypted bursts.

Starlink is widely used in Ukraine because it's really hard to jam Starlink.

EW 101 -- the best place for a jammer is between a transmitter and a receiver.

Thousands of Starlink satellites mean it's impossible to do that w/the right software

...in the Starlink receivers.

Software that SpaceX wrote for 2nd gen receivers AFTER the war in Ukraine began at no cost to Ukraine.

Believe me when I say the US three letter national security agencies NOTICED that.

Ukraine punched 40km of the 100km towards Mariupol yesterday before those bridges were blown.

The Russian formations in the south have been staved of troops by the Kyiv & Donbas offensives since the beginning of the war.

This dual rail bridge destruction just hollowed out the Russian Southern front's logistics plus requires more combat vehicle escorts for truck convoys needed to replace railway shipments.

This further dilutes Russian Army combat power at the South where Ukraine is pushing

Now to the gut punch of the thread.

I believe Ukraine's 'right wing wheel' offensive in the south is imminent.

Ukraine has been able to replace losses in the South and Russia has not.

The survival of the Azov/Marine garrison in Mariupol means many of the 13,000 man Russian ground formations attacking there are still pinned screening it.

Since many of those 13K are dead or casualties

...there are little or no reinforcements for the Russian front lines in the south

And note, the Mariupol garrison still has Starlink communications to coordinate with Ukrainians outside Mariupol.

Ukrainian hearts will want to push to Mariupol, but Ukrainian strategists would want a push to put Crimea's air & sea facilities into Smersh BM-30 & GMLRS range.

Ravaging Russia's Crimean logistics facilities will do more to unhing Russia's military in the south than pushing

...a narrow relief corridor to Mariupol.

Crimea seriously threatened will collapse Russian positions across the south, possibly causing a southern front wide rout.

This is the risk Russia is running by pushing it's last offensive into Donbas.

We will see if Ukraine wants to wait out the Russian's Donbas offensive or play for higher stakes right now.

I think its going to be soon.

End

Now, I've been wondering about the Kherson attack for a while (you might have noticed Im paying close attention to it). I hadn't realised the movement towards Mariupol. Nor the strategic significance of the bridge.

Now Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer certainly has been hinting that something is imminent. And there certainly seems to be some real tactical planning for some kind of offensive.

So true.

It is the same with terrorists. They talk some shit and want you to live in fear but you cannot control where or when they can strike so the best way to piss them off is just to live your best life.

In reply to Trent and retweeted by trent.

DecodingTrolls AT decodingtrolls
Waiting for the Russians to run out of logistics is a smart move. General Kutuzov's beat Napoleon's forces out of Moscow, using the same strategy. Funny to think that Moscow's military haven't read Tolstoy's War & Peace, yet Ukraine has. Ukraine is Russia's Mother Culture.

Right time to do battle with MNs Oops of Doom

https://www.wired.com/story/russia-hacked-attacks/
Russia Is Being Hacked at an Unprecedented Scale
From “IT Army” DDoS attacks to custom malware, the country has become a target like never before

THE ORDERS ARE issued like clockwork. Every day, often at around 5 am local time, the Telegram channel housing Ukraine’s unprecedented “IT Army” of hackers buzzes with a new list of targets. The volunteer group has been knocking Russian websites offline using wave after wave of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, which flood websites with traffic requests and make them inaccessible, since the war started.

Russian online payment services, government departments, aviation companies, and food delivery firms have all been targeted by the IT Army as it aims to disrupt everyday life in Russia. “Russians have noticed regular hitches in the work of TV streaming services today,” the government-backed operators of the Telegram channel posted following one claimed operation in mid-April.

The IT Army’s actions were just the start. Since Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February, the country has faced an unprecedented barrage of hacking activity. Hacktivists, Ukrainian forces, and outsiders from all around the world who are taking part in the IT Army have targeted Russia and its business. DDoS attacks make up the bulk of the action, but researchers have spotted ransomware that’s designed to target Russia and have been hunting for bugs in Russian systems, which could lead to more sophisticated attacks.

The attacks against Russia stand in sharp contrast to recent history. Many cybercriminals and ransomware groups have links to Russia and don’t target the nation. Now, it’s being opened up. “Russia is typically considered one of those countries where cyberattacks come from and not go to,” says Stefano De Blasi, a cyber-threat intelligence analyst at security firm Digital Shadows.

And

Since Russia began its full-scale invasion, the country’s hackers have been caught trying to disrupt power systems in Ukraine, deploying wiper malware, and launching predictable disruption attacks against the Ukrainian government. However, Ukrainian officials now say they have seen a drop in activity. “The quality decreased recently as the enemy cannot prepare as much as they were able to prepare,” Yurii Shchyhol, the head of Ukraine’s cybersecurity agency, the State Service for Special Communication and Information Protection, said in a statement on April 20. “The enemy now mostly spends time on protecting themselves, because it turns out their systems are also vulnerable,” Shchyhol said.

An MP writes to the Russian Embassy

RedToothBrush your last few posts are very positive developments on the Ukrainian battle front. They will me with hope. I am guessing that whilst Ukraine is systematically degrading Russia's logistics in the South, they must aching to launch an offensive to push towards and free Mariupol. It is upsetting to think of torture basements and filtration camps.

PS whilst I am not sure what Elon Musk wants to do with Twitter but you gotta love him for Starlink. I thank his craziness that if he got one thing right, it is this one.

Brilliant

(Plus placemarking)

www.wsj.com/articles/russias-long-disdain-for-ukrainian-nationhood-11651165024?mod=e2tw

This was an interesting read. The disregard for Ukraine sovereignty is endemic in Russian society, even amongst 'liberals and intellectuals' according to this essay...

Thank you for the new thread.

😂

Love the MP letter, there’s another 400 odd who need to do this. Thanks for the new thread @MagicFox

twitter.com/i/spaces/1vOGwyAkwbLxB

Live Twitter convo including Trent...

Thanks @BreadInCaptivity i can't sleep so this is something to keep me awake even longer...

Are you listening?

I'm still on...