Dr Mike Martin @threshedthought
The Battle is Donbas seems to have started.
But it’s the Ukrainians who have started it.
See here on my expertly drawn map
The Ukrainians are pushing east from Kharkiv which cuts the supply routes for Russian forces in Izyum.
If you remember from a few days ago (or a week? I can’t remember) the Russians took Izyum. This was import - it is a transport hub which makes it easier for the Russians in the NE to link up to this in the Mariupol direction. The start of an encirclement of Ukr forces in Donbas
But it appears that the Russians have over stretched themselves over supply lines that they can’t defend.
And so the Ukrainians are merrily cutting those supply lines
An encirclement of an encirclement if you like
I suppose this is the consequence of having a fixed date - may 9th to wrap everything up by
We’ve seen this before in the battle for Kyiv. Russians push too far on unrealistic political goals and get their log tails cut.
They’ve learnt nothing. Watch this space.
This sort of movement coupled with credible reports of Ukrainian reinforcements and reports of Russian losses seems to indicate that the war is still not going Russians way
Which takes me back to my original prediction: the russian armed forces will be defeated in Ukraine and Putin will be removed from power.
It may take some time but that is where we’ll end up
I swear the Ukrainians are proper sick at strategy.
I want them on my side in any future wars.
This move gives the real lie to all those Russian claims of reconstitution of those forces that got mullered around Kyiv.
Where are they? There aren’t any.