Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61040424

That guy who had a go at the govt for losing the Moskva is a piece of work.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Solovyov_(journalist)

Solovyov has changed his opinion on different questions numerous times; for example, the Crimean problem. Solovyov on Crimea:[57]

Any person who tries to start a war between Russia and Ukraine is a criminal, moreover, I can't even imagine the extent of such criminality. In Ukraine live people fraternal to us in spirit, in blood, in common history. Do not shout "Sevastopol is ours!" Do not shout "Crimea is ours!" (2008).

<span class="italic">And why do you need Crimea?... It was, without a doubt, legitimately transferred (to Ukraine) by Kruschev. If we suddenly say (we're taking it back) - it means war. Do you want a war with Ukraine? How many Ukrainian and Russian lives are you ready to lay down in order to take Crimea, which (by the way) has long become a Tatar territory?... Crimeans are against (rejoining Russia). (2013).</span>

<span class="italic">"We brought this day as best we could. Crimea and Sevastopol are again a part of Russia. Historical justice has triumphed!" (March 18, 2014).</span>

Solovyov claimed that Russia has "enough firepower for the full annihilation of the Ukrainian military infrastructure without an incursion of forces into Ukrainian territory. But we aren’t preparing to do this."[24] He later voiced support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine, saying that "Today is the day that a righteous operation was launched for the de-Nazification in Ukraine."[25][26]

to top it all, this Jewish man compared jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny with Adolf Hitler, saying that Hitler was a "very brave man"

[quote HappyWinter]Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61040424[/quote]
I think if we (Germany) could sop buying oil and gas now it would be the final nail in the Russian coffin.

Needs us to be brave though.

Tim White @TWMCltd
#Ukraine intelligence reckons the #Ulyanovsk Mechanical Plant, which makes many of #Russian's weapons (Buk, Kub, Tanguska) has been forced to close.

EU Sanctions mean they cannot get the parts they need. Workers reportedly given a choice between uppaid leave or join the army.

Workers reportedly given a choice between unpaid leave or join the army.

An idea our Tory government suggested, I believe.

Russia's FSB has asked for more money to fund soldiers' funerals and tombstones, RFE/RL reported.
The FSB has requested a 17% increase in state funding for funeral arrangements, according to government documents.
The request comes at a time when Russia is suffering "significant" troop losses and soaring inflation.

I think if we (Germany) could sop buying oil and gas now it would be the final nail in the Russian coffin.

Needs us to be brave though

Its very easy to ask others to make huge sacrifices whilst not having to ourselves... a oil/gas embargo would put Germany/EU into a 1930's style recession & that would be a world economic event.
However the solution is for the Middle East, who are supposed to be our allies, to make good the difference, why aren't they?
We do after all, arm most of them.

USA et al needs to be pressurising them to do so, if they aren't already.

I think if we (Germany) could sop buying oil and gas now it would be the final nail in the Russian coffin.

It might, but it also will the final nail in the coffin of the German/EU economies.

Needs us to be brave though.
It's easy to be brave with someone else's jobs and livelihoods.

Unions and alliances are there to spread the pain.

Unions and alliances are there to spread the pain

How?

Who's is going to finance it?

The US and NATO are already paying for the arms for Ukraine. That's not cheap.

From FT comments

Thanks all for the threads.

.

@Alexandra2001

I think if we (Germany) could sop buying oil and gas now it would be the final nail in the Russian coffin.

Needs us to be brave though

Its very easy to ask others to make huge sacrifices whilst not having to ourselves... a oil/gas embargo would put Germany/EU into a 1930's style recession & that would be a world economic event.
However the solution is for the Middle East, who are supposed to be our allies, to make good the difference, why aren't they?
We do after all, arm most of them.

USA et al needs to be pressurising them to do so, if they aren't already.

I think the problem is that the Middle Eastern countries have their own concerns eg re possible agression from Iran. They are therefore loth to upset Russia as Russia is acting as a prop in the Middle East against Iran. Thus Israel ( you'd expect to be supporting the US) has been having a lot of meetings with Putin and collaborating closely with Russia re Syria. Ditto countries like India and China are loth to condemn Russia because of their need to have Russia cover their own flanks re concerns about Pakistan ( India) and the US (China) etc. Recent failed interventions by the US and UK in Afganistan etc will not have inspired confidence. As in Ukraine the situation is not at all simple and straightforward.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

I think if we (Germany) could sop buying oil and gas now it would be the final nail in the Russian coffin.

It might, but it also will the final nail in the coffin of the German/EU economies.

Needs us to be brave though.
It's easy to be brave with someone else's jobs and livelihoods.

China and India are offering to take up the slack and buy the surplus oil and gas.

The rouble is now the best performing currency and has regained its pre conflict value after the fall at the start of March.

Putin is demanding that Russia be paid for energy etc in roubles.Would have been a good deal at the first week in March but not so much now!

I think the problem is that the Middle Eastern countries have their own concerns eg re possible agression from Iran. They are therefore loth to upset Russia as Russia is acting as a prop in the Middle East against Iran.

If you are still relying on Russian military help having seen the pigs ear and dogs breakfast they have made of a simple neighbouring invasion, then maybe thinking isn't your forte. Pretty sure there's other ways you could pass your time.

Praying, maybe ?

Oh they're pretty good at blasting civilians into Kingdom Come DGR

@jeannie46 How will they buy or get the gas that is being piped to the West?
Neither country is going to fair well if they deliberately try to sanction bust.

Not really sure on Russia being a prop against Iranian aggression, Saudi has a very advanced military and i'm pretty sure everyone has noted how poorly Russian equipment has fared against primarily hand held weapons.

How much worse against the long range advanced equipment.

Zelensky has invited Macron and Biden to come visit.

Iran has been reliant on Russian support because of hostilities with the West since 1979. It's not really anything to do with Iranian aggression against other mideast countries ( quite more Shia Iran has had to fend off ISIS and other extreme Sunni factions, such as Taliban and so its Iran that feels under constant threat). Iran has not got any allies amongst the Arab world, bar Syria under Assad. During the Iraq / Iran war they were friendless and relied on Soviet weapons to defend Saddam's invasion. Saddam had support from the West and the entire Arab world. Hezbollah are also allies.
Iran also has to function under extreme sanctions while being a very oil and gas rich country. Russia is a necessary ally. Would like to see this alliance break, I think even the Iranian regime secretly want it.

@RedToothBrush

Zelensky has invited Macron and Biden to come visit.

The US and it's oldest ally. Clever.

Zelensky has invited Macron and Biden to come visit.

Not sure the way Zelenskyy has done it is was a good idea. Inviting them is one thing, inviting them in a publicly is putting them on the spot, which isn't very good.

Biden won't go anyway, too expensive for the Americans to provide enough security for him to go. Maybe he'll send a representative.

@Natsku

Biden won't go anyway, too expensive for the Americans to provide enough security for him to go. Maybe he'll send a representative.

Not good optics though, if he doesn't after being invited. A bit thoughtless of Zelensky to land him in it.

Oleh Novikov @olehbatkovych
The Armed Forces of Ukraine start counterattack in the Kharkiv region: the settlements of Bazaliyivka, Lebiazhe, part of Kutuzivka have been liberated – Kharkiv region official

Phillips P OBrien @phillipspobrien
Well this is interesting. Ukrainian armed forces report that Ukrainian forces are pushing out from Kharkiv. This would be very threatening to Russian communications, logistics coming out of Belgorod. Take a look below where Bazaliyaka is in particular (next tweet)

Bazaliyaka (red marker) is on the road heading right to the crucial road systems from Belogorod to Izyum. This is opening up a possibly major problem for the Russian army. If this can be confirmed, its something to watch closely.

If it helps, here is a map with Belgorod included as well--might make its strategic location even more apparent. Its basically directly between Belgorod and Izyum.

This was definitely a move by the Ukrainians that was going on. I saw a source a couple of days ago talking about how they were trying to block the road south to cut off the Russians in Izyum.