Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

Bit of context.

This thread from 14th talks about how the Ukrainians also launched a counterattack to the East of Izyum to block another road into Izyum

Michael McKay @mhmck
Ukrainian counter-attacks threaten to cut-off the Russian salient at Izyum in southern Kharkiv region. To the east of Izyum, the invaders have been pushed back approximately 30 km. Ukrainian defenders have advanced almost to the strategic town of Borova.

Ukrainian artillery is able to strike all the Russian supply routes to Izyum. With the rearguard under Ukrainian fire control, the Russian vanguard in this battlefront sector is cut off.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are able to strike Russian supply lines at will – back to the international border in some areas. This is why the Russian offensive will fail in the east of Ukraine as it failed in the north.

All the major roads to Izyum are controlled by Ukraine except one: the crossing of the Oskil's'ke reservoir at Borova.

So does seem to be a full on strategy.

It was mentioned this war might be a change for him to rid himself of powerful general.

All it will take is these army people to say enough...and once he looses control of the army that's it.

Putin doesn't have the army he thinks he is the ultimate commander of.

Some debate over this picture but general feeling on twitter is that its the Moskva

Jimmy @jimmysecuk
An unverified but seemingly authentic image of the Russian Slava class cruiser "Moskva", the morning after it was struck by two Ukrainian anti-ship missiles.

It is listing as was described in reports.

Two obversations about it is there looks to be two holes at the rear just above the waterline. And why is there water spray in completely the wrong direction

Is Mariupol still not fallen?

@MMBaranova

Putin doesn't have the army he thinks he is the ultimate commander of.

Where does Putin keep his armies? Up his sleevies ...

The optics are bad for saying 'it would be nice for my friend to come visit me'. Especially when theyve expressed interest in doing so and there is clearly diplomatic work going on about official visits...

Oh dear god what?

Diplomatic efforts are undermined by making public invitations like this. it puts Biden under pressure and that's usually best not done to someone like the president of the US. Expressing interest is one thing, visiting something different. Also, Biden's press secretary said on Friday that Biden wasn't going. To keep saying after the that he should come and visit is putting him on the spot.

Biden doesn't need to visit now. Too late and too much risk.

He can do something else though

I know this is the dreaded daily mail but it's really scared me! What do people think?

President Zelensky warns 'we must prepare' for Russian nuclear attack
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10725045/President-Zelensky-warns-prepare-Russian-nuclear-attack.html?ito=nativesharee_article-masthead

I'm not particularly scared. I think Putin is full of shit myself, but I could be wrong

However, he needs to be dealt with now, fully. Otherwise we are kicking the can down the road for our kids and grandkids.

I think it’s the Daily Mail’s usual crap. That article is under pieces on Meghan and Harry, Bank Holiday traffic and women freezing their eggs. Just goes to show the priority they are giving it.

@TiddyTidTwo

I'm not particularly scared. I think Putin is full of shit myself, but I could be wrong

However, he needs to be dealt with now, fully. Otherwise we are kicking the can down the road for our kids and grandkids.

This.

Putin is a cancer that has been growing practically unnoticed for far too long. He needs ridding now. It may be our last chance.

Re: The Russian propaganda war.

From Sky News today: Here are the posters of children in a street near the NATO Chronicle of Cruelty exhibition in Moscow which I mentioned earlier today.

The news reporter said these posters, related to the propaganda aimed against NATO/Ukraine, show children from Luhansk and Donetsk who have already been subject to eight years of war. I was not clear if the meaning is that their lives have been blighted generally or if it means they were killed.

RedToothBrush I was cheered by reading about Ukraine forces' strategy cutting the Russian's off at Izyum. My deep prayers that they can liberate cities from Russian and Wagner forces.

All the major roads to Izyum are controlled by Ukraine except one: the crossing of the Oskil's'ke reservoir at Borova.

The Russians cannot be so stupid as to use that crossing, will they? I imagine there will be an almighty ambush waiting for them there ...

ScrollingLeaves, thanks for clarifying with the poster about the children in the exhibition. It never ceases to amaze me the sheer gaslighting of Putin's propaganda. Whether these children suffered or were killed, they were ultimately by him and on his orders.

@blueshoes

ScrollingLeaves, thanks for clarifying with the poster about the children in the exhibition. It never ceases to amaze me the sheer gaslighting of Putin's propaganda. Whether these children suffered or were killed, they were ultimately by him and on his orders.

Yes, it is dismaying to realise how powerful propaganda is and how easy it is to tweak information. The ordinary Russian people must be completely taken in for the most part.

I swear the Ukrainians are proper sick at strategy.

I want them on my side in any future wars.

We trained them.

@paulhollywoodshairgel I think he’s talking about being ready for them to be used in Ukraine and not, as the headline seems to imply, that we should all be digging a fallout shelter ready for him to nuke the West. Not that I think we should be complacent that he wouldn’t do that as I don’t doubt he’s crackers but it would likely mean the end of Russia if he did. RTB posted a really interesting piece about tactical nuclear weapons being used up thread which I actually found quite reassuring - still hideous all the same but at least more rational than the DM!

I don’t blame him but I’m also always aware that Zelenskyy must be on a constant press drive to maintain momentum of other countries to keep supplying him with weapons and support. Maybe it’s wrong but I often try and take what he says with that in mind rather than totally at face value.

@littledrummergirl

I swear the Ukrainians are proper sick at strategy.

I want them on my side in any future wars.

We trained them.

The British also said they were learning lots from the Ukrainians because they were full of ideas...

5 missile strikes on Lviv. No real details yet. There is some speculation about the targets.

This is one of Zelensky's advisors:

@podolyak_m
Five powerful missile strikes at once on the civilian infrastructure of the old European Lviv. The Russians continue barbarically attacking Ukrainian cities from the air, cynically declaring to the whole world their “right” to… kill Ukrainians.

Some western media suggesting the train station

Raf Sanchez @rafsanchez
Zelenskyy advisors says the strikes on Lviv targeted "civilian infrastructure".

Reports the missiles hit the area around the train station - a station which has been a lifeline for a people fleeing the East

Lesia Vasylenko @lesiavasylenko
#Lviv one hour ago. At least 5 #Russia missiles hit the Western city. Train station and storage units were targeted.

Ukrainian MP seems to confirm it.

Apparently the situation is under control, with no reports of passenger or staff injured, and it looks like the line itself hasn't been hit and trains are still running.

Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk
6 people died, 8 were wounded as a result of Russian missile strikes on Lviv, local authorities said. Russians strike Western Ukraine to show that no part of Ukraine is safe, just as more Ukrainians started to return to the country than leave it in recent days

I posted on the previous thread that nowhere in Ukraine is safe from Russian missile strikes and bombings when someone questioned why people in areas which hadn't been bombed, etc were choosing to leave.

This latest Russian agression is all about showing domination in some areas of the warfare. It's the flip side of the beating the Russian army BTGs have taken, the sinking of the Moskva.

More than ever, it is accutely evident that Ukraine has the right to defend itself against this aggressor and the west needs to keep helping Ukraine with weapons and training.

[quote YorkshireLondonMiss]@paulhollywoodshairgel I think he’s talking about being ready for them to be used in Ukraine and not, as the headline seems to imply, that we should all be digging a fallout shelter ready for him to nuke the West. Not that I think we should be complacent that he wouldn’t do that as I don’t doubt he’s crackers but it would likely mean the end of Russia if he did. RTB posted a really interesting piece about tactical nuclear weapons being used up thread which I actually found quite reassuring - still hideous all the same but at least more rational than the DM!

I don’t blame him but I’m also always aware that Zelenskyy must be on a constant press drive to maintain momentum of other countries to keep supplying him with weapons and support. Maybe it’s wrong but I often try and take what he says with that in mind rather than totally at face value.[/quote]
I think the important bit about that piece was how it made the distinction between tactical nukes which are considerably smaller than what we perhaps understand as nukes from Hiroshima. And how they compare to levelling a city which has already happened in Mariupol.

Its the whole idea that the world only sits up and listens properly at the word nuke or chemical weapons and almost ignores utter devastation they can see has already happened.

It raises different questions to the ones we perhaps think.

Its stuff like making sure Ukraine has anti-radiation pills in large volume and that these are already distributed. Its things like making sure bunkers are up to scratch. Do they have the appropriate medical supplies and awareness of how to deal with casualties. Do the west have a plan for potentially helping with casualties? Have the west made a clear policy, which might deter an attack in the first place?

We tend to think of the subject of nukes as hitting a major uk city and wiping it out in our heads when we see headlines about the use of nukes.

Instead it might be a smaller nuke targeted at a Ukrainian city which is less terrifying for us, but I'd argue merits more not less intervention. And as the thread states (controversially it might be added from response it got on twitter), it need not be purely an intervention which is another nuke.

Its much more nuanced and complicated than has been made out.

Trent Telenko amplifying the following from his replies:

First thread from 1 day ago.
War is no fun anymore @krafttea
More to the point is that Russia's ability to resupply itself is finite, w/ Ukraine's ability to attack supply behind Russian lines only increasing w/ time.

A return of failed, piecemeal Russian attacks from near Izyum may suggest supply issues due to high troop concentrations.

Increased, ineffective, poorly trained Russian troops could easily decrease the ability of competent troops to have the supplies needed to conduct effective breakthroughs with armored spearheads, i.e.

They could even lead to troops running low on petrol & food near the front.

One thing I have noticed on the Russian tanks near the front: far fewer w/ reserve fuel. So they mass up, idling regularly, burning fuel to stay warm during the rainy season, reducing their effective range without resupply... more mud... and then what?

Then second thread from overnight
War is no fun anymore @krafttea
As I was saying the other day, Russian supply near Izyum seems likely to be really bogged down. Fuel & food might be prioritized over shells... and as for missiles, anything remotely specialized should already be in short supply.

Also Trent, take a look at the area around Izyum...

Ukranian defenders would likely have fallen back behind the river, and blown the bridges, which explains why we have Russian video of them using a pontoon bridge, and advancing their forces across in force. /1

This position is quite vulnerable to attacks on its supply. Artillery in the theater could advance near Izyum, most likely to the N of river, but given that a river runs through it, it's likely low ground. Staying closer to Kharkiv might be a safer bet. /2

We have seen a few attacks out of Izyum, but they have been limited and peacemeal, and have been destroyed as such akin to what we saw near Kyiv, when Russian tanks were at operational limits on their supply, making a unified push impossible. /3

There were reports of attacks on convoys going to Izyum, and the other day, I saw video of a Russian APC moving rapidly towards Izyum, driving past a graveyard of destroyed vehicles, with turrets facing towards Izyum. (Russian.) So it's likely supply's been vulnerable for awhile.

In short, even if ammo is getting low, we should expect supply in general to be quite low for Russians amassed near Izyum, especially to the south side of the river, and for the main supply road to Izyum to be vulnerable to Ukrainian attack.

More rain won't help that. /end

Update!:
This translated intercept from #Izyum is really something.
It's like watching a slow motion train wreck.

Wow, this is the chef's kiss to that thread I wrote about #Izyum earlier.
1> Russian communications are totally intercepted.
2> Their soldiers refuse to go on the offensive.
3> Russian leaders want to extend their supply line even longer, despite being flanked.

I'm expecting to hear more about Russian logistics being cut and isolated soliders and various examples and reasons for dissent amongst Russian troops, if Ukraine is doing well.