Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

In the longer term the lack of specific imported components for Russian hardware is going to become increasingly debilitating for the military.
The West will be burning through their arsenal's at some rate, but the issues surrounding production will be easier to solve.
Another good reason for maintaining sanctions on Russia and directing them where it has the most impact.

From the Bloomberg piece upthread:

Ukraine War Is Depleting America’s Arsenal of Democracy Western allies face a choice: Send more weapons to Kyiv or save their stockpiles for their own defense.

No surprise to anybody who has served and who therefore might have a vague idea how much was likely to be in the locker labelled "war stocks" - fancy munitions cost money and until this conflict I suspect most people thought west v Russia would last maybe a week, absolute tops, before things ended one way or another, so why over order just in case you end up with a long war?

Also you probably can't ramp up production of most munitions quickly - why bother with that capability given the assumption ofv short war scenario where you fought with what you had to hand?

I can certainly understand why some nations bordering Ukraine might be starting to get twitchy about donating systems and munitions, and when we come out this conflict a lot of western governments are going to have to have a grown up and honest discussion with their electorates about defence spending, especially if somehow Putin survives in office.

On another point - the Moskva survivors parade....

Either those shown did very well to retrieve their parade/dress/No. 1 uniforms from the ship before they went down, or "stores" has played a logistical blinder ...or just maybe all was not as depicted.

As long as Russia doesn't manage to get arms out of China ....

I see there's a window of opportunity for mariupols to surrender. God be with them, whichever choice they make. But you can't trust Russian promises ....

notimagain won't the Russians be running out too? I saw something about them getting arms smuggled from Iran but even so the way there been shelling, won't they be struggling?

@Ijsbear

notimagain won't the Russians be running out too? I saw something about them getting arms smuggled from Iran but even so the way there been shelling, won't they be struggling?

Yes they absolutely will be, especially with the limits on what they can now import. This is where it’s critical that China etc aren’t stepping in to help them.

Returning to the whole "first world" distinction (again) - something the US, UK and most industrialised western countries can do is relatively quickly go from 0-100 in terms of production with relatively little effort.

It's almost by definition what we do.

One of the more illuminating stories of WW2 is how the Allies industrial capacity just grew and grew till we were launching 3 ships a week, 100 planes a day, 1,000 vehicles a week.

Obviously there is a cost. But this is the moment for that military industrial complex to earn it's fucking keep. We've put up with it for 70 years - if it fails now, then maybe the whole house of cards should come tumbling down.

It's telling there isn't yet the anger in the west along the lines of "What the fuck have we been spending all that money that could have gone on (for example green energy) these past 70 years ????????" if we don't see some sort of return on the investment.

However, it may come ... there's still time.

Another dead Russia general, can’t be many left

Mykolaiv governor Kim claims unmotivated and scared Russian troops are fighting with their separatist proxies in Kherson. “It’s unclear what it’s about or who we should be supporting,” he quips

Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll

I can certainly understand why some nations bordering Ukraine might be starting to get twitchy about donating systems and munitions, and when we come out this conflict a lot of western governments are going to have to have a grown up and honest discussion with their electorates about defence spending, especially if somehow Putin survives in office

Yup. I think the countries further from the conflict should contribute more arms so the countries closer can keep a bit more of their own, just in case. I know in Finland there's been a lot of talk about how we need to send more arms but also need to make sure we still have enough, just in case. Luckily Finland has long prepared for this and has always seen the need to keep large stocks of everything even after the cold war ended.

Thanks for the new thread MagicFox. Hope the Russian talk about their army's mission being completed might be Putin trying to prepare his public for withdrawal without it looking like defeat.

Speaking of Finland. I'm out and about at the moment, but the Finns in response to the video of the Russians driving military equipment close to the border have made a video in response to warn them off.

It features Finnish tractors driving past a sign pointing towards St Petersburg....

The line up of the so called rescued crew of the Moskva. They all look very clean, as in no bruises. Two days previous rescued from a burning sinking ship where many colleagues died. No sign of strain on their faces, no marks, all standing. So the rescued crew had no injuries at all? Not one even in a wheelchair or being visited in hospital? Either dead or perfectly ok from that ship sinking. Not a broken fingernail amount the survivors? This is what is weird to me about the footage.

Wonder if you're right Natsku. He sounds a man it's really unhealthy to give bad news to, but his subordinates must be passing some news through and little of it is good.

If he does order withdrawal I wonder if he'll try to keep going long enough to get Mariupol completely taken over and then he has that corridor and control of the Azov sea.

12:52 PM
external Mykolaiv Oblast governor reports shootout between Russian troops, Russia's proxies in neighboring region.

--

there's trouble at t'mill though, saw that report too DuncinToffee in the Kyiv Independent kyivindependent.com/tag/russias-war/ 12:52.

^According to Vitaliy Kim, shooting between the Russian military and forces of the Russian-occupied territories in Donbas took place in the Russian-occupied city of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, on April 16.

Simon Shuster @shustry
I'm in touch with one of the last defenders of Mariupol. He's wounded. After Bucha massacre, he says, "surrender is not an option." He feels their stand accomplished its mission. They tied up so much Russian firepower it gave other cities a chance to survive.

Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll
Georgi Serdechny, deputy chief doctor at Irpin polyclinic says injured keep coming. While Russians were near, it was all about missile shrapnel. Now it’s bites from stray dogs (dozens daily), unexploded ordnance, and poisoning fm water and out-of-date French humanitarian aid

“The Germans are being more careful and checking the dates,” he adds

@RedToothBrush

Simon Shuster *@shustry* I'm in touch with one of the last defenders of Mariupol. He's wounded. After Bucha massacre, he says, "surrender is not an option." He feels their stand accomplished its mission. They tied up so much Russian firepower it gave other cities a chance to survive.

Such bravery. Truly moving. The defenders essentially spent the whole time drawing Russian fire to themselves. Pure suicide. No one should ever have to do this. Damn that Putin dickhead.

I really hope this defender manages to get out and get help.

It's a tenacious slog.

--

From General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
🇬🇧 ENGLISH VERSION | АНГЛІЙСЬКА ВЕРСІЯ
The operational update regarding the #russian_invasion on 06.00 on April 17, 2022.
Video (Spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Shtupun): a bit later.
The fifty-third day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues. A russian federation continues its full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.

The movement of russian units to the territory of Ukraine from the Kursk, Bryansk and Voronezh regions continues. Units of the armed forces of the russian federation stationed on Ukrainian territory have significant supply problems. At the same time, they were able to accumulate significant stocks of ammunition.

Dissatisfaction of personnel is growing in the units of the russian occupiers on the line of direct fire contact, and the morale and psychological condition remains low. The russian military is constantly complaining about the lack of rotation, equipment that is constantly failing, the quality of fuel supplied and food.

In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the enemy did not take active action. Certain units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus continue to carry out tasks to cover the Ukrainian-belarusian border in the Brest and Gomel regions.

In the Siversky direction, there is a possibility of missile strikes and artillery shelling from the territory of the russian federation on military and civilian infrastructure in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions.

There are no changes in the composition and position of the russian enemy forces in the Slobozhansky direction. The russian occupiers continue to partially block the city of Kharkiv and shell its residential areas.

In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, the russian enemy continued to launch air strikes on Mariupol. Conducted assault operations near the seaport.

Units of the 810th and 155th independent Marine brigades are being prepared for the landing naval operation. The information is currently being clarified.

In the South Buh direction, the russian enemy's main efforts are focused on maintaining their positions. According to the available information in the unrecognized transnistrian Moldavian Republic, with the participation of representatives of the Federal Security Service of the russian federation, the combat capability of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd separate motorized rifle brigades of the ransnistrian armed forces was tested. The inspected units are not ready for combat operations.

In the territories temporarily occupied by the russian occupiers, looting and violence by the russian military against the civilian population continues. These actions are encouraged by their military command.

Ten enemy attacks have been repulsed in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts over the past 24 hours, fifteen tanks, twenty-four armored units and ten vehicles, as well as three enemy artillery systems were destroyed.

Thirteen air targets were hit by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the previous day: one plane, one helicopter, five UAVs and six cruise missiles.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Let's win together! Glory to Ukraine!

Phillips P OBrien @phillipspobrien
The upcoming Battle of the Donbas: where we might be when looking at both the most predictable but also one of the strangest battles in modern war. As everyone seems to guess, after losing the Battle of Kyiv, this battle is now Russia's great priority.

Its predictable in that ever since Putin lost his 'big' war, the total conquest and subjugation of Ukraine, he has been left trying to secure more limited objectives in the south and east. Basically take as much of the area of this map as possible.

Russian build up seems mostly to be in the area between Izium and Kharkiv, to launch as assault to link up with forces in the south. Putin seems to be telegraphing the importance of this battle--see interview with Austrian chancellor who just met him.

[rtb there is a link to an interview with the Austrian Chancellor who met with Putin. He said that Putin believes he is winning the war, which isn't something I've seen before]

So there is little surprise, as we are awaiting this battle beginning. Problem is, that the Russian build up seems to be a real logistical problems complicating their build-up.

Its worth noting that the Ukrainian government, which claimed in a report yesterday that the Russians might have concentrated 22 BTGs in the area near Izium, didnt repeat that number in its most recent communique.
www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/04/16/the-operational-update-regarding-the-russian-invasion-on-06-00-on-april-16-2022/

If the Russians do have 22 BTGs there, the rest of the fronts will be pretty lightly held. There are also signs that instead of having a large build up for a major assault, the Russians are drip feeding units into action as they become available. This is what they did at Kyiv

This is an @TheStudyofWar report on that a few days ago.
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-15

Now the weirdness---there is no surprise at all! Think about that. Its like preparing for a major, crucial engagement that might decide the war, and everyone knows exactly where it will happen, indeed Russian units are being tracked closely as they get into position.

The Ukrainians in their most recent update are basically describing Russian attempts to prepare for the Battle of the Donbas. Ukrainian forces are being prepared to meet an attack that they know practically the exact location

In fact it does seem the Ukrainians are being very methodical now, limiting their offensive action and trying to retain forces and keep casualties down til a major Russian assault occurs.

In this way, the battle will be no surprise. All the matters now is what kinds of build up the Russians can actually make, and what kinds of counter preparations the Ukrainians make. There will be no substantive negotiations before the battle, but after the war could wind down.

That is why getting everything possible to Ukraine now is so important. Its clear where the attack will take place and its clear it could affect any peace negotiations. Take advantage of the pause and the historic weirdness of the lack of any surprise.

Have seen a few people point out that fighting has been going on here for weeks. True. I’m thinking about the battle that would ensue after the Russians complete their build up and have real strength in the area. If what we are seeing is all they can do…

Look, we also don’t need clever western analysts to guess what Ukraine needs for the battle of the Donbas. The Ukrainians are being explicit, and they know what they are talking about.

They’ve asked for 1) air and anti air to contest the airspace over the battle area. 2) ranged weapons (artillery and UAVs) to attack Russian forces at depth. 3) APCs body armour and tanks to protect their own forces.

What they need is obvious and they are saying it openly. Only question is whether they get it.

Btw, if the Ukrainian claims of Russian losses in the Donbas are close to accurate, the Russians lost basically an entire BTG yesterday in a series of piecemeal attacks. They keep doing that and they won’t be able to build up enough for a major offensive

Michael McKay @mhmck
In Donetsk and Luhansk regions on April 16, Ukrainian defenders repulsed 10 attacks by Russian fascist invaders.

Losses inflicted on the the aggressors: 15 tanks, 3 artillery systems, 24 armoured vehicles, 10 military vehicles; 4 Orlan-10 UAVs and 2 cruise missiles shot down.

Pmk and thanks for the new thread. Got to admit feeling a tiny glimmer of hope with Reds post yesterday evening re the changing objectives of the Russians and the “de-nazification”. Perhaps poo tin has realised his goals are not going to be so easy. But at the same time it’s impossible to believe anything coming from Moscow anymore, it’s just been industrial grade bullshit for months now. Also encouraging these stories of Russian forces turning against each other, if I’ve understood that right. I hope their moral continues to fall.

General Staff: Russia lost 20,300 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Russian forces have also lost 773 tanks, 2,002 armored fighting vehicles, 376 artillery pieces, 127 multiple rocket launchers, 66 surface-to-air missiles, 165 jets, 146 helicopters, 8 ships, 76 fuel tanks, 148 drones, and 4 ballistic missile systems, the General Staff reported on April 17.

Interesting stuff if Putin believes he's winning the war still. It seems British Intelligence believes he's still after Kyiv. Fingers, toes and everything crossed that they can win the Battle of the Donbas.

The Eastern Border🇱🇻🇪🇺
@Eastern_Border
· Apr 15
Also in the news: Looted stuff stolen by Russian soldiers is now being, in turn, stolen by Russian postal workers. For example, from the 130 boxes that were supposed to arrive to the town of Rubcovsk, only 3 made it there.

Damn those thieving postal workers eh?

PMK with thanks 🙏

The Eastern Border - Also in the news: Looted stuff stolen by Russian soldiers is now being, in turn, stolen by Russian postal workers. For example, from the 130 boxes that were supposed to arrive to the town of Rubcovsk, only 3 made it there.

This is beyond a joke

@RedToothBrush

Speaking of Finland. I'm out and about at the moment, but the Finns in response to the video of the Russians driving military equipment close to the border have made a video in response to warn them off.

It features Finnish tractors driving past a sign pointing towards St Petersburg....

Saw it yesterday, amusing. Been a fair bit of tractor memes going round Finnish twitter too, showing tractors ready to do their duty

Found it
twitter.com/Odessa_Journal/status/1515399841236541443

Thread I'm doing over two posts as it needs images

Phillips P OBrien @phillipspobrien
Please read. A presentation by Sam Gardner, who is a retired USAF colonel and taught strategy at the National War College, Naval War College and Air War College. Its on a possible use of Russian tactical nukes in Ukraine, and how to respond. Best I've seen on the subject.

Opening summary (these are my summaries--apologies to Sam if I paraphrase wrongly), Russian tactical nukes would basically be to kill civiliansi in a city (Kyiv) more than effect the Ukrainian armies

If used, these weapons would have effect in an area of approx a circular kilometre from airburst

Basically the damage they could inflict on a military airbase--somewhat limited in terms of equipment except close to the airburst.

@blueshoes

The Eastern Border - Also in the news: Looted stuff stolen by Russian soldiers is now being, in turn, stolen by Russian postal workers. For example, from the 130 boxes that were supposed to arrive to the town of Rubcovsk, only 3 made it there.

This is beyond a joke

You can see why their army cannot organise their supply chains. And why their weapons don't always work properly.

I hope the defenders of Mariupol manage to hold out, they've been very brave.

Part 2

Phillips P OBrien @phillipspobrien
Putting the damage in context in comparison to an airfield in Latvia or Talinn, the capital of Estonia

Here is what would happen if the Russians used one over the center of Kyiv.

Conclusion. The damage a Russian tactical nuke would do to Kyiv is basically the same as their terror attacks are doing now. NATO would not have to respond with nuclear weapons to retaliate proportionally.

Definitely thought this was worth sharing and appreciate Sam sending it to me.

Most people get the importance of this, but have seen 2 responses that make no sense. 1st is that it is to encourage Ukrainians to keep fighting if they are attacked by these (this is preposterous). 2nd that it calls for too weak a response by not using nukes against Russia.

Not having to get involved in a full nuclear war because the Russians use a tactical nuke on Ukraine is not a bad thing--for Ukraine or the world.