Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

@littledrummergirl

Glad it's not just me that read it that way. I'd say the person who wrote it maybe speaks English as a second language, I'd like to hazard a guess that their first may be, oh, I don't know, Russian.

I thought they'd disappeared

Don't take the bait...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent
Politico: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz delays tank delivery to Ukraine.

According to people familiar with the deliberations, Scholz is delaying a final decision over whether to give Ukraine around 100 tanks to fight Russia, despite pressure from several other top officials.

@strawberriesarenot

Don’t worry about stones coming at you from me. I wondered about the “Just give them the flowers” stance too. But maybe it wouldn’t turn out the way you suggest - with younger generations leading the way to a better future naturally. There seem to be countries where there is an urge for a tighter and tighter grip that never relents.

I agree, but not Russia. Russia culture and science has flowed in and out of Europe for generations. It's not North Korea.

The Ukrainians had a choice, fight or give in, if they had given in, i still thing Russia would have killed many 1000s and still destroyed the place, you don't assemble a force of 200k if you don't plan on using them.

That's true.

But I still think peace now should be the primary goal. Before one more child dies, one more rape, one more old person shoved out of their home. I think Russia should be offered a reset option, and there's no one to offer it but Zelensky.

Your flawed assumption is that Putin values peace and the sanctity of human life.

If you understood how he has cemented his power over the last 20 years you would understand that he does not.

You cannot successfully negotiate with a person whose ethics, values and aims are fundamentally at odds with your own.

Putin will not walk away from this war through the offer of a "reset button" - rather there is no such button that exists.

Do you think Zelensky can simply say, ok stop now and we circle back 2 months without consequence? Do you think the Ukrainian people would accept this?

Equally, how can Putin possibly spin the success of a "special operation" that achieved nothing except for the huge toll on Russian forces?

There is no "reset" on war and there's no negotiation with a man like Putin whose moral compass never points in a direction other than one that re-enforces his power and control regardless of the humanitarian cost.

The West has a simple choice. We stand with Ukraine or watch it fall under a putative "peace" treaty.

In the case of the latter then we wait whilst Russia recoups its strength, enabled by its success and allies (equally emboldened by our failure) until the next target - probably patting ourselves on the back for out "success" until we rinse and repeat.

We are already at war with Russia whether we like it or not. We are supplying, intel, weapons, training and sanctions (and behind the scenes probably more).

The real question is what is the resolve of the West to win it?

Well shit! I need to catch up but I've been on a works do in London tonight so im drunk lol. My taxii driver to my hotel was Iraqi and we had a goooood chat. I'll post about it when im more compus mentos 😂

We've been shit. UN are shot. NATO are shit.

All weak.

I keep going back to 9/11 and our reaction to that. Of course it was abhorrent but on our doorstep we witness civilian execution and torture, rape of women that ends in death, child rape, torture and execution.

And we done fuck all. If that happened on US or NATO soil it's somehow worthy of action but a non NATO soul civilians aren't?

Sorry but no

UN goes in western Ukraine. NFZ over humanitarian troops, west inky

Free up the Ukrainian army to fight in the east, supply them

NATO naval presence in the Black Sea

Tiddy - just wondering how many you are away from "just nuke the fuckers"?

😉

Illia on twitter said they are still getting supplies and equipment from outside the Russian ring around mariapol!

Russians over strung even there!

summary of military aid sent to Ukraine, from OSINT

twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512237089487826961

It's still sickening me that the Russians deliberately bombed all the hospitals so no one can receive hospital care. The cynicism and cruelty of it ... and then to claim the Ukrainians are attacking themselves.

Pundit's on twitter feel Russia Will draw Ukraine to the Donbas region then start an attack on Kyiv again, surround Ukraine and cut them off in the south.

People in Kyiv also concerned that troops have gone because something nasty is coming.
One prays mask's and medicine's are flooding in to minimise any chemical attacks.

Now really is the time for some countries even individual go into peace keeping around that side of the county.provide security, so they can concentrate on rebuild, safety, protect refugees, help them to stay in their own country!

Now is the moment.

Many people saying Putin still wants Kiev

@PaperTyger

Pundit's on twitter feel Russia Will draw Ukraine to the Donbas region then start an attack on Kyiv again, surround Ukraine and cut them off in the south.

People in Kyiv also concerned that troops have gone because something nasty is coming.
One prays mask's and medicine's are flooding in to minimise any chemical attacks.

Now really is the time for some countries even individual go into peace keeping around that side of the county.provide security, so they can concentrate on rebuild, safety, protect refugees, help them to stay in their own country!

Now is the moment.

Many people saying Putin still wants Kiev

This

Von der Leyen etc on their way to Kyiv this morning.

Wonder if she'll drop by Bucha on the way.

Bread I was almost there 😂

Sigh....what's von de layon going to Kyiv for?

@PaperTyger

Pundit's on twitter feel Russia Will draw Ukraine to the Donbas region then start an attack on Kyiv again, surround Ukraine and cut them off in the south.

People in Kyiv also concerned that troops have gone because something nasty is coming.
One prays mask's and medicine's are flooding in to minimise any chemical attacks.

Now really is the time for some countries even individual go into peace keeping around that side of the county.provide security, so they can concentrate on rebuild, safety, protect refugees, help them to stay in their own country!

Now is the moment.

Many people saying Putin still wants Kiev

'Pundits' on twitter are not military experts. They are clearly incredibly stupid and don't understand satellite images can see you coming and that Russia hasn't got enough troops to surround Kyiv.

I think I'll stick to listening to those with some degree of expertise.

People in Kyiv also concerned that troops have gone because something nasty is coming. One prays mask's and medicine's are flooding in to minimise any chemical attacks.

This has always been possible. In particular combined with Russian assertion of bio labs being funded and run by the US. But it would be counter to Peskov's interview on Sky last night. I believe the focus really is on the East now, so concentrated that Russia is successful in isolating those regions and bringing them under permanent Russian control. That is essential to Putin's political survival because it is not possible to 'half-take' several regions and claim that as success.

twitter.com/i/status/1512194639155056649
A nice time lapse animated map of Ukraine and the situation at midnight each day.

@PaperTyger

Pundit's on twitter feel Russia Will draw Ukraine to the Donbas region then start an attack on Kyiv again, surround Ukraine and cut them off in the south.

People in Kyiv also concerned that troops have gone because something nasty is coming.
One prays mask's and medicine's are flooding in to minimise any chemical attacks.

Now really is the time for some countries even individual go into peace keeping around that side of the county.provide security, so they can concentrate on rebuild, safety, protect refugees, help them to stay in their own country!

Now is the moment.

Many people saying Putin still wants Kiev

Putin probably does still want Kyiv, but he ain’t going to get it

mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1512053218448183300?t=FQAqzVaZKvdHnyFG58xfmg&s=19

I've been thinking there's the risk of some sort of awful strike on Kyiv or other cities now there are no Russian soldiers nearby on the ground. Maybe Russian popular opinion will start to change now it has been publicly stated they've suffered significant losses.

Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
“Ukraine has about 7,000 unclaimed Russian corpses in morgues and refrigerated rail cars.”
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/russia-war-dead-soldiers-bodies/
Russia's war dead slogan belie that no one is left behind

www.itv.com/news/2022-03-29/itv-news-hears-allegations-of-russian-troops-filming-rape-of-15-year-old-girl
ITV News hears allegations of Russian troops filming rape of 15-year-old girl

AlexandruC4 @alexandruc4
BREAKING: Russian troops stole the entire humanitarian cargo for #Melitopol

This was reported by mayor Ivan Fedorov. According to him, the cargo was stolen along with the trucks that were delivering it. Via @nexta_tv

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent
163 bodies of people killed by Russian soldiers in Bucha have been identified, according to Bucha Mayor Anatoliy Fedoruk.

Overall, 320 bodies of slain Ukrainians have been collected in Bucha.

The number of bodies found each day in the city continues to grow, Fedoruk says.

Frederick Pleitgen @fpleitgencnn
The Ukrainian interior minister took us to Chernobyl yesterday. The first time since the Russians occupied the place. We found evidence of mistreatment of Ukrainians and that the Russians got radiated. 🧵1/8

The Russians held almost one 170 Ukrainian servicemen prisoners, mostly in the plant’s own bomb shelter with no light, bad air and no communication for nearly a month. Ukrainian police, national guard and military, according to the interior ministry.

The prisoners have since been forcibly taken to Russia, the Ukrainian interior minister says, and the Ukrainians do not know where they are being kept or how they are doing. The interior minister also says the Russians stole most of the prisoners’ valuables and phones.

There is also evidence that Russian troops were subjected to radiation: we found increased radiation levels in the quarters where Russian troops stayed. Ukrainians say because the soldiers went out into the contaminated areas and then had radioactive dust on their boots.

This was drone video of Russian positions dug in the Red Forest - one of the most contaminated areas in the world. Most of the radioactivity is in the soil so disturbing it is a bad idea.

We went to the edge of the Red Forest and found a Russian military food ration laying on the side of the road. This is right at the edge of that zone. The radiation levels at the packaging massively shot up

These are the signs warning that it’s the red forest and of radioactive contamination. The Russians seem to have dug position INSIDE that zone

We also went to Chernobyl town and found the Russians blew up their own HQ when they left and shot up a memorial to SOVIET traffic police who helped after the Chernobyl disaster - a Lada. They shot it up but stole the headlights.

There is talk today that Russia is forcably conscripting Mariupol men.

Carl Schreck @carlschreck
Per local news, families of fallen Russian soldiers in the Irkutsk region won't have to pay for trash-removal services.

Someone did not think the headlines through on that one...

@WeAreTheHeroes

I've been thinking there's the risk of some sort of awful strike on Kyiv or other cities now there are no Russian soldiers nearby on the ground. Maybe Russian popular opinion will start to change now it has been publicly stated they've suffered significant losses.

I wouldn’t expect any significant shift in Russian public opinion. The Kremlin have indeed admitted for the first time to ‘significant losses’ but the numbers being cited are still far short of what is understood to be the true numbers. Russian propaganda is likely to very effectively paint the picture of Russian soldiers giving the ultimate sacrifice in an important ‘special operation’ and that the need to liberate Ukraine has never been greater. Remember they’ll be seeing this ‘news’ filtered through a very different lense.

@strawberriesarenot The only way to limit further rapes and deaths and other atrocities is to arm Ukraine and help in other ways we can, so that they can fight back. Because if Ukraine capitulates it won't be peace that comes there, it'll be more mass rape and murder. And then Russia will re-group, re-arm, possibly learn from its mistakes in Ukraine, and then set its sights on the next country.

Zelensky is addressing the Finnish parliament today.

And NATO chief is saying that Finland could get political protection from NATO during the joining process, not sure what that means exactly though?

I was also thinking that there was potential that if Russia can't have Kviv nor can Ukraine. With justification along the lines of, they are all Nazis, only way to oust Zelenskyy (who is the most evil man on the planet), cleansing our brother country's rotten core.

@TiddyTidTwo

Bread I was almost there 😂

Sigh....what's von de layon going to Kyiv for?

How is your head this morning? Do tell us about the Iraqi taxi driver!

I'm wondering about something awful happening to Kyiv too but 1) Putin is a survivor 2) taking out Kyiv would shift more of the world's opinion against him 3) there'd be more chance of things escalating.

So on balance of probabilities probably not. But it's hard not to be afraid.