Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
Russia is nearing 50 days of war in Ukraine.
Here's the snapshot that U.S. is seeing, according to a senior U.S. defense official who briefed reporters today on day 46 of the war.
Russia's pace of missile launches has actually gone DOWN in recent days as the Kremlin has re-adjusted for operations in the Donbas.
Weeks ago, Russia's average of missile launches per day was around 50. That number has sunk as we approach day 50.
from earlier
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: Russia has launched more than 1,500 missiles into Ukraine in more than 46 days war of in Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.
Russia is focusing missile strikes in the Donbas. 🇷🇺 has fired an average of about 32 missiles a day in Ukraine.
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
Russia's new offensive in Donbas has yet to begin, U.S. officials caution.
But 🇷🇺 has started reinforcing military positions southwest of Donetsk in an effort to prepare. And it is resupplying some units on the ground and moving others out of country.
Top Pentagon officials expect that Russia's campaign in the Donbas will be more of a close quarters fight – with mechanized forces nose-to-nose backed by artillery – instead of shelling cities from distance, like the abortive drive on Kyiv.
That is dovetailing with the weapons systems that the US & European nations want to supply to Ukraine.
Several nations are considering sending tanks to 🇺🇦 to take on Russian armor in the Donbas. And the US is looking for more options to train 🇺🇦 on drones
But Russia is still licking its wounds from the effort to take Kyiv.
About 20 battalion tactical groups – maneuver units that form the backbone of Russia's military in 🇺🇦 – are regrouping in W 🇷🇺 & Belarus.
Another 20 BTGs are near Donbas.
Russian units that could overcome Ukrainian forces in Sumy & Chernihiv are out of the fight – and it's not clear whether they will return.
And some others are likely done for good (other Western estimates indicate ~1/4 of Russian BTGs now inoperable).
Putin is also appointing Gen. Alexandr Dvornikov – known as "the butcher" for ordering 🇷🇺 strikes that flattened Syria's Aleppo – as head of all forces in 🇺🇦.
But US & European officials don't believe Dvornikov can solve 🇷🇺 logistical problems overnight.
Instead, Dvornikov, who fought in Russia's two brutal wars in Chechnya in the 1990s and early 2000s that destroyed another famous city, Grozny, is likely to make Russia's war in Ukraine even more focused on targeting civilians, officials indicated.