Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

Phillips P OBrien @phillipspobrien
U.K. MOD saying the Russian units defeated around Kyiv will need ‘significant replenishment’ before being ready for combat and a mass redeployment to the east will take at least a week. Best guess, a week is far too soon. Only an efficient, motivated military could manage that.

Remember: 10 day led time on weapons ordered from Biden's Washington DC specialist branch of Amazon Prime.

Dan @danspiun
61-66 Here the 4th + 5th new RuAF BMP-3 losses shown in the UAF 95th Airborne Brigade montage film from Kamyanka (tweet 54). The aerial shot again shows a common failing at RuAF resupply points, non dispersal leading to mass losses when hit by UAV spotted arti. Pure incompetence.

Trent Telenko @trenttelenko
This is an important observation on Russian supply operations. It also tells me UAF has this Russian operational tendency templated. They are living inside the Russian head when the Russians are resupplying

Translation of above two tweets:
Russian vehicles are congregating around resupply points in large numbers. Ukrainian surveillance is looking for this and then blasting multiple vehicles with a single shot. Its a logistical weakness which shows tactical incompetence and ill discipline on the part of the Russians.

I've been thinking there's the risk of some sort of awful strike on Kyiv or other cities now there are no Russian soldiers nearby on the ground. Maybe Russian popular opinion will start to change now it has been publicly stated they've suffered significant losses.

The Kremlin* controls the narrative and support for Putin has increased to over 75%. If the narrative changes support may weaken, but changes in that narrative can only come from two directions. One is from Russian's living outside Russia. That narrative is likely to be weak against the backdrop of state media the population are experiencing now. The most powerful narrative could come from Russian troops if morale collapses and there is a strong possibility of that. The Kremlin will then consolidate its claims that the US are promulgating the war. It will not want to be seen to be held in check by Ukraine. There is some truth in this of course and Biden's speech in Poland can be made to fit that narrative.

@TiddyTidTwo - I echo @ClaudineClare sentiments.

Hope you managed to find a 'bratty wagon' on the way back to bed last night to help with this morning. Hair of the dog might help.

Traffic jams going back into Kyiv. This is heartening.

@PestorPeston

I was also thinking that there was potential that if Russia can't have Kviv nor can Ukraine. With justification along the lines of, they are all Nazis, only way to oust Zelenskyy (who is the most evil man on the planet), cleansing our brother country's rotten core.

Why not just do it right now then, if thats your thinking?

Why withdraw your troops, say you are doing so because you need the leadership of Ukrainian to settle the war, and then nuke them? Why go to the apparent effort of clearing up bodies in Mariupol to hide astroscities with a mobile cremation unit, only to nuke Kyiv? Why make a song and dance about war crimes not being done by Russians only to nuke Kyiv? This is being done for two audiences: the domestic one and the wider non western one. Dropping a nuke isn't hideable.

I guess if you wanted to make a point of doing it you'd probably pick May 9th. But otherwise, it has no strategic benefits.

Chemical or biological weapons is another matter. Russia are making ominous noises about this. But the suggestion is the target would be in areas they want to cleanse of pesky Ukrainians not the capital. So they can blame Ukrainians.

The signs are now that Russia must be digging in for a long entrenched war - if they have accepted that reality, then actually the risk of 'an event' reduces.

Where this becomes a risks again is if the Ukrainians manage to hold off a regrouping and then push back against the Russians.

Because that starts to look like Russia can claim no victory at all.

Even if you go down the mental gymnastics of Kremlin moving goalposts there are certain consistencies: 1) Putin wants to stay alive 2) Putin wants to stay in power 3) Putin is reluctant himself to use nukes because of 1 and 2 4)Putin will use chemical weapons but also has to find a way to justify / blame their use on Ukraine because there is still a need for the veneer of plausible deniability / destruction of the truth.

Tim White@TWMCltd
More than 30 are dead and over 100 injured in #Kramatorsk after a missile was fired on the city's railway station.

The attack came this morning in broad daylight as evacuees were waiting for a train to safety.

Bodies lie all around outside #Kramatorsk railway station, along with their luggage

There is graphic footage of the aftermath.

Doesn't take a genius to work out who the victims are going to be.

@Ijsbear

I'm wondering about something awful happening to Kyiv too but 1) Putin is a survivor 2) taking out Kyiv would shift more of the world's opinion against him 3) there'd be more chance of things escalating.

So on balance of probabilities probably not. But it's hard not to be afraid.

Isn't Kyiv an important place for the Orthodox religion? So destroying Kyiv might lose Putin the support of the Patriarch (wow, honestly that name....) and the Orthodox church

I agree with RTB, I think Kyiv is in the clear. Putin doesn't have the manpower or indeed the equipment to take it.

Odessa I think is also largely in the clear, they will get the occasional sting, but I think that's largely because the Russians want to keep the Ukrainians tied up there, instead of being able to go to Mariupol or the Donbas basin.

It's like chess, and I hate to generalise but Russians love chess.

Isn't Kyiv an important place for the Orthodox religion? So destroying Kyiv might lose Putin the support of the Patriarch (wow, honestly that name....) and the Orthodox church

No, he won't be worried about losing their support. They are his.

The Associated Press
@AP
BREAKING: Senate overwhelmingly backs sweeping policy bill to pump $700 billion into the military.

Seven .. .hundred ... Billion ...

@Ijsbear

The Associated Press *@AP* BREAKING: Senate overwhelmingly backs sweeping policy bill to pump $700 billion into the military.

Seven .. .hundred ... Billion ...

Is that recent or from 2017 ?

From conversing with relative behind Russian lines in Kherson oblast (and edited to anonymise without hopefully becoming meaningless):

Very frightened about relieving forces getting close as, post Bucha etc., they fear not only being caught in shelling, but also being looted, raped and/or killed by Russian forces if they are close to pulling back. I just don't see Ukrainian forces getting to them in all honesty, but who can tell how things will develop? The fear is real.

There's little food now and more Russian forces in their area.

They are not in touch much with neighbours as it is too frightening to go out. This is suburban density housing, equivalent in a way to early 20th century bungalows in Britain in terms of spacing and grounds, but with more in the way of wooden fences and outbuildings.

@DGRossetti Oh you're quite right! sorry, it's from 2017 yeah

www.globalfirepower.com/defense-spending-budget.php

Projected 2022. To put it into context. Combined Western European defence spending is just over $200 bn. What matters there is some form of collaboration and I can imagine leasing between European countries will become more prevalent in time. Normal UK central tax revenue is about £750 billion per annum (the last two years have been skewed by Covid). Money spent in the arms industry involves the private sector so this is part of GDP and taxes are recycled.

@Ijsbear

The Associated Press *@AP* BREAKING: Senate overwhelmingly backs sweeping policy bill to pump $700 billion into the military.

Seven .. .hundred ... Billion ...

Fuck. The amount of money going into this war, when it could be spent on climate change measures, poverty, schooling...it's just fucking wrong.

I get WHY we are doing it and it's worth supporting the Ukrainians but I am so angry at the waste of lives and resources, just so one man can play at being Tsar of the USSR again.

The worst of it is that Ukraine is damaged, but will rise again. Russia is fucked for at least one generation. Possibly more if it choses isolation.

I am also going to toss down a prediction here; they can't keep up entrenched warfare for years. Russia can keep throwing conscripts at the situation but it will run out of weapons as most of it's supply lines for semi-conductors and other equipment are gone. That's going to accelerate as the West cuts it's dependency on Russia's fossil fuels. I can't see China enthusiastically supplying them with enough arms, either. It wants peace and they have their eyes on Taiwan and the Pacific.

[quote Ijsbear]@DGRossetti Oh you're quite right! sorry, it's from 2017 yeah[/quote]
No harm done. Shows how easy it is to fact check each other when you aren't ramming your head up your arse.

Kyiv Independent

Russian attack of Kramatorsk train station kills 30 people, injures over 100.

Thousands were at the station at the time of the missile strike, as locals are being evacuated ahead of the escalation in the east.

Source: Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko, Ukrzaliznytsia.

@ PaperTyger

Pundit's on twitter feel Russia Will draw Ukraine to the Donbas region then start an attack on Kyiv again, surround Ukraine and cut them off in the south.

I was worrying about that too last night. They have been ‘protesting too much’ so to speak about concentrating on the south. But wouldn’t American intelligence know?

In the US there is also the 'black budget' which is probably another 10% or so. Again for context GDP by country:

databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf

The US is a giant.

If you look at corporate activity, as you would expect the top US companies dominate. What is interesting is if you flip the data and look at the bottom quartile. Mostly US companies. The largest ore producer in Chile is going to be a pretty big company and so is the largest supermarket in Brazil. But it is the mid-cap companies that give the US economy a great depth. The country can afford to fund its military - indeed it is an inherent component of its GDP.

companiesmarketcap.com/

Our pensions are about 65% invested in US corporates.

Putin wanted to go down in history as the greatest Russian leader ever - the irony is that he will be remembered as one of the stupidest leaders ever;

He has united world opinion against all Russia.
He has brought together the previously weakening organisations of the EU, NATO and maybe even the UN.
He is losing his biggest customer of oil, gas and other natural commodities.
He has proven the ineffectiveness of his armed forces.
He has set back the Russian economy perhaps 20,2 5 years.
He has isolated Russian sport and cultural activity for many years.

He has broken the bond of trust between Slavic peoples which could well lose him influence if Belorussian and the Southern and Eurasian countries that border Russia.

He could well lose Russias permanent position on the UN Security Council.

He. his family, his circle of gangsters and his friends cannot visit any Western looking Nation without fear of arrest or reprisal.

He has written himself into the history books as hitlers inept and silly little apprentice.

Alec, I agree, the pathetic attempt to resign after they were suspended just makes them look like a bunch of amateurs who think they are being clever.

@ScrollingLeaves

@ PaperTyger

Pundit's on twitter feel Russia Will draw Ukraine to the Donbas region then start an attack on Kyiv again, surround Ukraine and cut them off in the south.

I was worrying about that too last night. They have been ‘protesting too much’ so to speak about concentrating on the south. But wouldn’t American intelligence know?

Well it’s a possibility but TBH the Russian performance in the East has been so poor that they probably do genuinely feel they need to redeploy some forces to there from the Kiev area to increase local numerical advantage (and that’s probably much more likely the reason for any move away from Kiev than thoughts of a chemical attack).

The Ukranians probably do have to in turn move some of their forces towards the East from Kiev in response …it risks exposing the capital but they do at least have the advantage over the Russians in them being the ones with the interior lines of communication.

With regard to the US, intelligence and sharing thereof.. some may get shared with the Ukranians but great care will be taken about the what and how for various reasons…same applies elsewhere, I would never ever assume for example that US, UK & e.g. Germany share all their info, even in current circumstances.

Horrific scenes at the train station
Targeting civilians trying to evacuate, sickening.

Yes those scenes are sickening

Twitter is a cesspit. Already the bots saying that Ukraine did it.

So many Africans and Italians are expert on this war

Fuck. The amount of money going into this war, when it could be spent on climate change measures, poverty, schooling...it's just fucking wrong.

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.

One of the most profound comments on humanity ever.

From.
A.
Soldier.