Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

east Edinburgh and I had sleet on my car this morning and the paths are slippery. it's officially winter

I was promised snow in Nottinghamshire today and I feel cheated!

Snow on the tops of the Mourne mountains in Northern lreland and today. Fires lit. Hot cheese toastys for lunch and cosy on down.

Snow on the Argyll hills and over on Mull.

morning all, slightly behind today. Be with you shortly!

Friday 19th (GFS and ECMWF) Damp and mild. Breezy

Saturday 20th (GFS) Wet and Mild for much of the UK. Cooler in Scotland, maybe some snow showers.

Sunday 21st (GFS) Colder, snow showers in the north, rain showers midlands and south.

Monday 22nd (GFS) Mild and wet in the SW colder elsewhere.

Tuesday 23rd (GFS) Mild and wet in the SW and far south. Colder and drier elsewhere.

Christmas Eve (GFS) Cold away from the south. Possibly snow showers (unless you are in the south)

early Christmas day (GFS) away from the south coast - snow. seriously. Though, actually don't take its seriously, its like centuries away in forecasting terms and will be different tomorrow.

Kitten
When I was growing up in Gloucestershire, I definitely thought of Manchester as "up north". Now ( having lived in this region for 37 years ) i still think of it as "north" but on the southern fringe of "north" unless someone refers to NW England, when I bizzarrely see Manchester as being in the centre of the NW!

I tend to think of NW as Blackpool, but Manchester isnt all that far away from it! Funny how geographical perception varies. Perhaps we need a thread when its not quite so buy 'A definitive guide to UK locations' then we can get a formal mn definition going (if we could ever agree!) that I could use.

I'm NW born and bred and definitely see Manchester as being NW England. Agreed that we're not 'North North' but we're northern all the same!

for your Christmas day forecast OYBBK. Snow!

Coincidentally when I opened the latest edition of 'Weather' this morning I found it has the met office geographical definitions in map form in one of the articles. Handy!

It splits the UK into 'climate districts. One climate district is 'England NW and NW.' It splits Wales neatly in half and continues up the West coast to Scotland. However It also has the 'Midlands' as a funny shape through the centre going all of the way up to a latitude beyond Blackpool. Its a bit hard to tell looking at the map but as Manchester tends to get weather similar to those west of it rather than east of it (due to great bloody hills to its east!) I think meteorologically it does look as though it counts as NW!

Image attached stolen from the met office

sod not getting excited... the fore cast wil have changed tomorrow and I won't even have the meerest hint of being able to get excited about snow.

whoops and dances around living room.

I'm only looking once a day, I couldn't handle the emotional roller coaster of the 4 runs a day.

too excited to spell obviously..

Here in North Wales I tend to think of myself as North though not as north as more northern places haha!

We have Sleet!

Marking place, thanks for the thread OYBBK. Very much hoping for snow here in London, willing to do snow dances or communal smiting of Azores wind or whatever is necessary to ensure it

Morning!

Friday 19th (GFS and ECMWF) Damp and mild.

Saturday 20th (GFS and ECMWF) Mild for much of the UK. Cooler in Scotland

Sunday 21st (GFS) Very mild, wet in Scotland

Monday 22nd (GFS) Very mild. Half the Azores high seems to have escaped over mainland Europe

Tuesday 23rd (GFS) Mild and wet

Christmas Eve (GFS) Wet and mild.

Christmas day (GFS) Cooler and dry

Early Boxing Day (GFS) dry and cooler with a high pressure sitting over us.

Not very inspiring but hints of a pattern change as we go into the New Year perhaps.

I'm doon south.

No snow anymore

Thats forecasting for you! A roller coaster of emotions, a surprise at every turn.....

see, told you you had to do the excited bit yesterday.

goes back to sitting in corner waiting for better news...

Is there a subtle difference between 'Mild and wet' and 'Wet and mild'?

OYBBK can you give an idea of the weather for Cornwall for Christmas etc. And please make it cold not bloody mild for a change, unlike the rest of the weather forecasters

Please? Please? I know it's in your power

It hasn't snowed here (other than a light dusting) for 3 years now. And we have to get some this year as we can't afford to go skiing. I can't face an entire winter without snow...

No, no, no, Please no snow!

Our building work starts tomorrow and I've been waiting 9 years for it!

(It can stay cold and bright, or cold and cloudy, just no form of precipitation please!)

Snow covering all the mountains here in Snowdonia and I had a little pile of sleet outside my door in the early hours of the morning. I am quite high up though.