Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

Where are you bigbluestars?

South of Edinburgh. It has stopped now but I am hoping there is more to come.

I love seeing this , I am now here for the duration .

Driving from Glasgow to Edinburgh today, hope the roads aren't bad [worried]

Take care BeHoHoHove .....BigBlueStars how exciting

BeHoHoHove ~ to help travel plans (you might know about it already), there's the trafficscotland website.
And for those that enjoy looking at Scottish snow, they have traffic cameras here. (the A9 ~ Drumochter North and South is looking especially wintry at the moment!)

it ready feels like Christmas note we are wittering about snow we are flying from Heathrow on the 21st so if it's going to snow anytime in the south it will be then remembers the previous xmas`s of doom

Its absolutely freezing in East Scotland, no snow but it feels like it should be snowing, we've just had drizzle today.

Snow on Perthshire hills

Following....

Love these threads. Followed the storms one earlier in the year. I'm up for snow or wet and windy this Christmas please.

I really dislike sunny bright christmas days. It has to be either cold as fuck or chucking it down.

I hate snow. Please let it be crisp and sunny over Christmas!

If you are in Wales or the midlands checkout met office warnings for overnight

it is frosty out there on the electric shed substation roof in the garden. no white stuff though.

Goodness me! That weather warning has got very interesting. I get very excited at the prospect of snow! The yellow has increased to more southern areas. Are there any chances that we might see some on the surrey London borders? Pleeeease??

If not, if everyone in the yellow but went out at say 7am and huffed and puffed in a southerly direction, would we maybe see a flake or two?

I'm 46 now and still get ridiculously excited by snow. Just love watching but fall and float and dance down.

Obv I hope it doesn't cause problems for anyone and I hope that everyone stays safe, but I do love it!

OYBBK, as ever, thank you for the winter weather thread updates. I love you too!!! xxx

Ooh, and Gloriasmud too! Xxx

It's vaguely possible that there may be one or two sleety showers around dawn Newbie, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

It does show how marginal snow is. A change in temp forecast of just one or two degrees can make all the difference!

still no snow here in the w mids.

Hanks again OYBBK. I'll keep everything crossed for a lovely surprise in the morning. Xxx

Not snow but tons of hail

Scenic Leesmum!

Morning all.

Friday 19th (GFS) Cold in the north. Snow showers in the northern UK!

Saturday 20th (GFS) Remaining cold for the northern half (temps around freezing). Milder in the south and west. Maybe some snow showers for 'up north'

Sunday 21st (GFS) Mild and wet. (Basically showing what it was showing yesterday for the Saturday but shifted one day forward) Quite windy.

Monday 22nd (GFS) Mild, with more wet weather moving in. Quite windy/

Tuesday 23rd (GFS) Cooler over northern UK with snow over Scottish mountains and perhaps down to lower levels. Wet elsewhere.

Early Christmas Eve (GFS) A mix of rain sleet and snow over the northern half. Rain further south.

The issue is still the Azores high. It needs to piss off. Tomorrow the the forecast period begins to enter ECMWFs range so we can start to verify a bit more. Note that the GFS ensemble members show wildly different solutions for the time period I'm talking about so take this all with a massive pinch of salt at this range!

Kitten - what counts as "up north?" - I'm in Greater Manchester. I never know if people are talking about Northern UK (eg Scotland) or Northern England. where it might mean me!

I kept it suitable vague as of course its all very much still up in the air but I tend to think of North Yorkshire, Cumbria and further north as properly up north. The Pennines sometimes sneak into this personal definition because of their altitude rather than their location.

I'm not really sure where I think Manchester is, I tend to think northern Midlands/southern 'up north'

Where would you classify it as?

I'm pretty sure I see snow on Snowdon today. Lovely.

interesting.

No snow here - West Yorks - and I don't want any yet please.