OYBBk - Early winter predictions

[JerseySpud]

What are they looking like this year?

I know its early yet but i like to know x

[LumpySpacedPrincess]

Cheers kitten.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You are welcome. :) I should add the caveat that it is running further south than usual.

[atticusclaw]

The weather guru on MSE had just given a sneaky snow tip off. Is it you OYBBK (she also has a kitten related name!)? Are things looking clearer for snow?

[Muchtoomuchtodo]

You can all stop worrying about snow.

My winter tyres are on........

......it never snows when they're on !

[atticusclaw]

[GloriaSmud]

More winter thoughts. I think from my (very amateur) glances at the charts, it looks like they think it might get colder next week/as we head towards December.

[GloriaSmud]

And for a bit of fun, netweather have their 'Santa Shaker' to see what the chances of a White Christmas are!

[GloriaSmud]

Another lot of winter thoughts. I'm still thinking from my glances at the charts that the temperatures are heading downwards after the weekend.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

That wasn't me :)
I tend to do my faraway look aheads at the end of the month, but I'll have a bit of a squizz in a few minutes.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It can be really useful to look at the spaghetti plots in these circs because it gives you the spread of likely forecasts GEFS ensembles

I tend to look at Oxfordshire for a broad stroke look for England as it's vaguely central. If you look at the 850 temps, these are the temperatures higher up in the atmosphere (where the pressure is 850 hpa). Very very roughly speaking you need temps around -5c to bring down to ground level. There are exceptions! If you look at the chart which goes to the 3rd of December, snow is very unlikely for that region.

Surface temp wise, Gloria is right, it does look like there will be a cool down next week (about time, I have a spring blossoming tree which thinks its spring currently!) but it's not a huge drop and it seems more likely that there will not be many air frosts up until early December. (Remember there's a diff between ground and air frosts)

Precipitation certainly looks to calm down with most of the ensemble members showing a fairly dry time, with one or two notable spikes in the operational and control runs.

So to summarise til early dec that one particular model shows drier, cooler weather but not snow or esp cold.

[GloriaSmud]

Looks like the US has had a blast of winter.

[atticusclaw]

Yes my friend in New York State has seen snowfalling at a rate of 4 inches an hour!

[mankyscotslass]

Look how deep the Lake Effect snow is! here

[Cindy34]

Looks cold in the US at the moment, apart from Alaska which seemed be a bit warmer (when I checked temp sensor data). Is it unusual though? I recall being in mid US around Nov and there being lots of snow.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Finally we have a little hint of winter showing on gfs :) In the second week of December it shows cold air being drawn in from europe. I wouldnt exactly call it a beast - the temps over Europe are not shown as very cold, but nevertheless cold enough to potentially bring our temperatures down quite nicely.

If the GFS is on to something I'll be quite interested to see how the cold air from the east interacts with our rather warm sea temperatures. The 850 temps still unfortunately look just a little too high according to the majority of the GEFS ensemble members so it would be borderline but there is, looking at todays chart, the potential for SNOW!

However, that's two weeks off yet and an awful lot can happen to the charts in the mean time.

[Muchtoomuchtodo]

First frost of the winter here today in South East Wales.

Lots of snow in the European alps and across the Atlantic - it would be nice if we saw a bit of it here!

[MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig]

Good frost here in Suffolk too.

There was a picture on my fb news feed this morning of a daffodil in bloom in Wales.

I want some decent snow this winter. Just for a bit. We didn't get any last year!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I've just had a peek at the 06Z GFS . Whilst the chart looks quite different, with less of a blocking high to the east it actually looks more promising for short term snow I think in the second week of december, with more of a north easterly component to affairs. However, it doesnt look like a very stable situation in terms of potential for a long period of cold.

But thats one model run. We wait for the next......

[GloriaSmud]

I think (as a result of my very amateur looking at the charts and just having a 'gut feeling'), that this winter is going to be very different to last year (and what could be worse than last years?!) I also get the feeling that it will start slowly cold-wise but that we'll all see some decent frosts (good for killing bugs etc) and possibly snow eventually, maybe from December onwards.
That ends my 'gut feeling predictions' for the winter!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It is at present looking very different I agree. Although superficially all of the rain we've had has led to fears of it being a rinse and repeat of last year the synoptic set up is looking rather different.

Mind you it's a bit of a shock to realise that December is just a week away

[GloriaSmud]

I know, I'm about December starting in a week ~ I'm not ready for December/Christmas yet. Could we slip another month in somewhere before December starts, then I might be ready!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Only if we can squeeze in another half term! Not sure I could last a couple of months without a bit of a break!

[GloriaSmud]

OK that'll be good, an extra month but including a week off for a half term. We'll perhaps arrange that for next year!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Splendid!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Rather a different out look in the 00z run. Dank and coldish would be the order of the day for the if this model run was correct with high pressure bringing up warmth from Southern Europe.