OYBBk - Early winter predictions

[JerseySpud]

What are they looking like this year?

I know its early yet but i like to know x

I wouldnt be giving up on winter yet!

Hi Kitten i do hope we get at least one Snow Watch thread...i look forward to those

Me too :)

HA! I came on here as I had just read the express story!
What is NAO?
So does the express story gave no merit at all OYBBBk?
I want some snow! I love a good snow watch frenzy

It's theoretically possible it could be right Hattie, as it says the same thing at the beginning of every winter! The NAO is the North Atlantic oscillation. It's a measure of the difference in pressures between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. It has a connection with the jet stream. If the pressure difference is large then we tend to get a more active jet stream and our weather is dominated more by Atlantic weather. If the difference is small (a negative NOA) then the jet stream tends to be weak and it is more likely that our winter will become dominated by Europe which can bring in very cold weather.

I would be ecstatic if there was NO SNOW.

I hate the stuff, nasty, slippery & dangerous.

You need car socks and ice grips

No, I need to win the lottery so I can bugger of to Barbados for the winter!

Netweather's thoughts on Winter 2014/15 are here in their long range forecast (released yesterday)

Will be interesting to see how accurate they are :)

Hmmm Netweather are predicting about the same as Metcheck. I do like Metcheck, they are right 90% of the time for us

Feels like Winter here now, as the wind's been from the North today. I want some snow.

its been between 7-10oC here today

More winter thoughts, from Accuweather and Channel 4's weather forecaster Liam Dutton.

Proper scrape windscreen frost this morning in N bucks. I have just seen a FB post linking to the responsibly reported Daily Express.

Betting season ramps up.

Hints of something colder coming our way?

Hmmmm. Having a look at the models, including the ensembles, I think they are jumping the gun. It may be a sign that we are going to transition to something colder, but I don't think there is a clear signal for that at present.

I was thinking the same thing. I had a look at the models (in my very amateurish way!) and could see where they were getting the 'hints of something colder' from but after all the 'hints' that went on last winter, with people pinning their hopes on them and it coming to nothing snow/cold~wise, it is perhaps a little unwise to go down that route again!

I'll be landing at Manchester on 21st Nov at midnight. Will I be better booking hotel for the night or will I be okay driving the full length of the M62 home to North Lincolnshire? I'm dreading coming home to snow and/or ice on that motorway.

What's the jet stream up to this year?

Night sky I think you will be fine.

Lumpy. Will get back to you tomorrow on that one.

Latest winter thoughts.

Agree with TWO. There are hints of a change at the end of the month - GFS shows temps finally start to begin drop properly in Eastern Europe. Our cold weather has to come from somewhere and there really isnt any showing at present.

Nothing terribly remarkable about the jet stream at present. It seems a bit 'fragmented' both in strength and composition, but despite the DM's lates proclamations, its doing pretty much what it ought.