OYBBk - Early winter predictions

[JerseySpud]

What are they looking like this year?

I know its early yet but i like to know x

[JingleSpud]

Nah its ok. I'll just come and watch your other threads

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Awwww :( we can keep talking if you like!

[JingleSpud]

Nooo this was the longest thread i ever started lol

[leesmum]

Good idea..brand new snowy thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You are really welcome :) I'm torn about which thread to post in now because this one was about longer term stuff and theres a short term snow watch thread started. here so I've updated that one.

You know what I might start my Christmas snow watch thread tomorrow evening because the 19th comes into line then and people will be starting their Christmas travels.

[leesmum]

Ohhh SNOW WATCH!!! Thanks Kitten

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok, so It is very marginal on friday around Welsh hills. Nevertheless, on higher ground I think there still could be some snow. Another area to watch out for is around the higher ground of the Pennines. Some of those high level passes could become tricky for a while.

Now its early days, but according to the gfs model, mid to late next week could see some significant snow up in Scotland - the further north and away from coasts you are, the more likely it is to be snow as opposed sleet. GFS shows that risk moving further south next friday to encompass northern England.

After that gfs goes on a rapid warm up. Wouldnt take that as gospel. It's also one model, I'll have a look at the ensembles this afternoon if I can. If not, this evening. (if I dont, poke pins in me til I do)



I'm going to also c&p this to the 'Will it snow thread' as that has a title which will draw people in rapidly!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's really touch and go. Think wintery mix at present.
I'll update more tomorrow. Ever so sorry, having one of those mad days and off to a long meeting in a short while.

[leesmum]

Met office has us (Manchester) down for SLEET on Fri!!!

[MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig]

Ooh please come to Suffolk!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Potentially some light snow for central Wales on Friday :) more info later.....

[MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig]

No fog or frost in Suffolk today but it's bloody cold. Have had the fire on all day.

[GloriaSmud]

Yay, just a slight chance of something frosty/snowy will do ~ chance of some snow chat at last!

[hoochymama1]

Oo, small is a good enough chance for me thanks, OYBBK
Murky and dismal in Derbyshire..yuk

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Lots of cold grey and fog about this week. Next week colder weather flirts with us a bit and there's just the small potential of some wintery weather I think.

[nemno]

A nice slow circuitous train stopping at all stations is required please. :)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'll be better off explaining it in the morning but it's to do with the North Atlantic oscillation :)

At the moment the jet stream is doing great lazy loops rather than acting like a express train of weather systems.

[nemno]

Thank you for the flowers Madrigal, appreciated.

OYBBK, thank you. I am confused by the jetstream, I understand that it is unpredictable but last year when it 'clicked' into place it was known that it would stay there a while. When can I relax that it has decided on this winter's location? But I am relieved it isn't there yet. As I recall last year the rain pattern started early/mid Dec? The river was certainly high Christmas to late Feb.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Nemno the synoptics are very different this winter so far and for at least the next two weeks theres no hint of flooding. I will of course post if there is any change to that.

[nemno]

Can you weather gurus please keep an eye on that jetstream. I just really can't be doing with the flooding of last winter. My poor dad who has terminal cancer wants to die in my spare room, a room that was evacuated for 2 months at the beginning of this year. St Jude's storm did for my FIL last Oct so we could do with some benign weather this year.

[hoochymama1]

Thanks for this thread Kitten and Spud

I'm a daily lurker and love weather chat. DH was a geography teacher so is quite keen on iceland and weather

Pleeeease Kitten magic up some snow for us, though only at a convenient time for Madrigal to get to hospital safely

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Rafa - thats ridiculous - the SO2 wasnt thrown high enough to have any affect.

Interesting wobbles in the models for next weekend bringing just the hint of potential for sleet/snow showers. The 3 main models though arent really in agreement. I'll update more tonight or tomorrow.