2013/2014 Winter - Should we be getting ready for 'snowmageddon'?

[johnworf]

According to this article, based on past winters and other factors, this winter could be a very chilly one.

I don't understand half of the things used to predict why this may be but I'm wondering if I should start making sure we're ready for it, should it come?

S.Herts.
Was 1 degree last night, thank goodness it clouded over as forecasted. This morning it is 6.
What upsets me is that at 9.30 pm it was 21 degrees in sitting room but at 5.50 am today it was 16.5 despite the heating having come on at 5.30.
Been on without a break for 90 minutes now and is only 20 and still not lovely and warm. Is the coldest night sitting room temp so far and not even well below freezing yet.

That's a good idea funnyrunner. I'm out for the morning, Did you want to start the thread?

Whilst we may start to see more (still localised) frosts next week, no snow on the cards yet.
Tomorrow I have a bit of time and I'll have a look at the longer term outlook (which will be utterly wrong)

Yes Yes to the prep thread

Okay :)

PREP THREAD IS HERE - this way we won't fill up the weather thread with wind up torches and the like :)

After dog walk this morning in miserable drizzle, at lunch-time the sun came out. I had my 40 winks and woke up to ominous looking skies.

snap digerd, it got so sunny I almost thought I might go for a run but then the clouds came over and convinced me to stay put! Its bitterly cold here today.

Bitterly cold here too with a really biting northerly wind BUT the sun is out too which means I can work in my office at home without heating on (sun heats up the room enough) :)

OYBBK are there any good long-range forecast sites we can read?

(PS: The prep thread is filling up with good advice for anyone who is into that kind of thing).

Have to take dog out again before it gets dark, but although the skies keep varying and in the south it looks lighter, I really don't feel like going out in this weather. Says 11 degrees on my outside sensor but is sheltered. Think it's a northerly wind today.
Wish I could enjoy all the smells outdoors like little dog does, but doesn't do a thing for me.
My running days are well over, but I can still do low impact dancing in a hall

FR
. Our sun disappeared an hour ago and hasn't come back.
So my reckoning was right that it is a northerly wind. So it's the wind direction that is making it feel sooo cold.
Must dig out a warmer hooded jacket.

Its really cold here. Have just made the DCs go out and get some sticks to light the fire.

Very clear and starry tonight glad to have the stove lit! Can anyone suggest a good basic weather station for the garden? Would love to be able to report in in a suitably geeky manner

Much milder today but has been grey and drizzly so far. The cold northerly wind seems to have gone. 12 degrees atm. SE

Still cold here. I've had the fire going since 9am.

Temp here is saying 8 deg but it is MUCH milder than yesterday. Think the wind chill yesterday was baaaaad! Cloudy. Have a fleece on but no heating.

Ok:
Jet stream: It looks like it slows down again after the speedy whizzy stuff its been doing recently. and starting to fragment etc similar to last winter. Forecast only goes out a couple of weeks.

North Atlantic Oscillation: Ensembles are split, it is currently weakly positive but the mean takes it to weakly negative towards mid/end of November. Negative NAOs tend to lead to cold more settled weather over Europe. At the moment there isnt enough trend to indicate much influence over the weather.

El Nino/la Nina: Still neutral and NOAA are currently forecasting it to stay that way til spring. So no clues there!

CFS model: This is a long term forecast model that is to be taken with truck loads of salt. Anyway you can look at the out put results yourself: weatherweb tv cfs .50% of the models go for some pretty cold weeks at the end of November, in December and January - not consistently cold. 50% go for more average temps. Not especially dry either.

Solar cycle: No chages here! This cycle is looking very weak (looks to be the weakest since 1906) and weak solar cycles do tend to be associated with runs of cold winters. If you are interested in this google 'Dalton solar minimum'. It's a controversial area of meteorology!

Met office global long range forecast: I've lost my really good link :( I think theyve changed it since I last looked. From the limited map I can see it looks like the forecast is for slightly warmer than usual and slightly drier than usual. However, without seeing the better quality maps I wouldnt pay much attention to that.

To summarise:
Still not got a scooby - everything points to a very average winter. Which probaby means it won't be

Good news Kitten :) DH will now freak at my preparations until I point out they will be useful when the zombies come...

It's not really especially good news as its all bollocks anyway - I have no idea what the winter will be like!

Well, I'm taking every day as it comes and today has remained mild but drizzly. Weather still so changeable. Little furry dog looked all bedraggled today though, not that she cared

How odd? Seemed to be getting warmer - gone up to 14 degrees atm . What is happening now.?

"mild and dry". Hope they are right and it stays that way

digerd ~ we've had the temperature rise too. After being around 10C today we're up to 13.6C. It's also throwing it down atm ~ we've had 7.8mm of rain in the last 24hours.

We must have had a clear sky last night as lost 7 degrees - 7 atm.
Just have to wait and see what today brings. Just want it dry for a while and a bit of sun would also be appreciated with it being dark by 5pm. < I feel my body going into hibernation mode already>

Not sure whether I'm reading it right but has the CFS got a bit of a cooling down forecast towards the end of the month? It's way into the future though ~ 22/23 November time.

It does Gloria.