Badkitten's 'will it snow at Christmas?' thread

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

Just for fun

GFS had Christmas Day in sight now. Of course it's massively a long way off in forecast terms and it can't even make its mind up what is going to happen on Friday yet!

disclaimer: am only an amateur and this is my hobby. Please don't rely on it for any crucial decisions - I don't want you to get into pickles cos I got it wrong!

And now for the forecast......

Hi kitten, when do the models start to get accurate? I know nothing is ever certain with weather but when do the predictions have more weight?

I'd say 4 days out is a pretty good time frame for starting to pick out specific weather systems. Snow itself is usually harder in this country because it often happens under quite marginal conditions.

A weeks time frame is usually enough to be able to pick up a general trend towards hot/cold/settled/unsettled and that's probably about it. Sometimes though the models do get things right surprisingly early but it's pretty hard to pick out which model might have the right idea!

GFS is once again going for a wet and mild Christmas. a storm is still showing, but this time the 24th/25th and affecting northern Scotland most. I think we need to pay attention to the possibility that there may be some sort of storm over that time period somewhere!

An increasing likelihood of flooding I'm afraid as we go through this week. The weekend concerns me. If you are in a flood prone spot, please be prepared to take precautions.

Looked at GFS which goes out to New Years Day. the good news is, that it seems that there's no risk of hypothermia for revellers.

kitten - I don't want to hear of more flooding . The aprt of North yorkshire I lvie in has been badly hit twice since October, and I have a Tesco order due for delivery on the 23rd, I don't want to hear a voice on the end of the phone saying
"oh I am sorry Mrs saltire but every road in your area is shut again due to flooding and we can't get to you"

I was sure it might have snowed here this morning (London, despite the forecast). I woke up to that strange yellowish light you sometimes get when there's been a little bit of snow.

But actually it just looks a bit stormy

Desperately still hoping for snow, though it does sound unlikely.

Saltire, that would be rubbish!!
I'll make sure that I keep an eye on the amount of rain expected this week and perhaps be able to give a bit of a heads up on it. No met office warnings out yet, only for ice for the north half of Scotland

Got my threads a bit muddled, back on this one where I meant to say.....
GFS is being astonishingly consistent in showing Christmas Day as wet. every single model run......

Oh no! A wet Christmas Day. Everyone hating each other and stuck in the same house :(

Or is that only the Ariel outlaws? Hopefully there'll be a break in the weather and I can take Nephew out in the puddles.

Tis a prospect I dread too!

Latest GFS shows snow showers for northern Scotland christmas day. Wet showers elsewhere . Maybe cooling down in the new year.

Goodness! A bit of a turnaround in the overnight GFS run!! Shows colder, with temps just a bit above freezing in central northern areas with an area of precip moving in from the SW Christmas night that just possibly may have a bit of snow on its leading edge.

Golly! I really want to take the dog out for a long walk with his reindeer antlers on Christmas Day. So anything other than urky murky rain would be great

I'm still up for playing in puddles with Nephew

That's the spirit Ariel!

flood warnings for the sw tomorrow and I'm afraid looking at the charts that is just the start. Lots and lots of rain for the SW over the next week. More warnings will be issued by the met office I'm sure.

Oh for God's sake. How am I supposed to dry any bloody washing? I was on the M5 yesterday and loads of the Levels and Devon are just an extended lake. There is nowhere for any more water to go.

But let's build on more floodplains anyway.

Just out of interest, is Sheffield in a central northern area? Please?

Hmm. I might need to add fags,and bandages to the shopping list.

Just looking at the next GFS run :)

Ok,
The low pressure is still there. It's in a position at the moment that could bring gales to the south on Christmas Eve through the night. Quite wet through Christmas Eve afternoon and night but drying up during Christmas Day to leave showers. Temps stay too mild for snow away from central Scotland, where it has the right mix of ingredients to bring the white stuff.

It's certainly being a tease isn't it!

ECMWF going for a completely different picture! Mild westerlies before cooling down!

So fundamentally damp really.

Will pack wellies and waterproofs for our trip to my brothers.

Thanks

I think "fundamentally damp" sums it up pretty well.

Nice summary :)

more warnings for the sw including amber I'm afraid :(

Gosh, it looks bad, doesn't it? Even in London netweather forecasts 36mm of rain on Thurs.