OYBBK- chances of a white christmas?

[CherryMonster]

what do you think? will the uk be buried under 6 foot of snow, or will cheltenham be cold, wet and windy?

I'm just looking at one model here the GFS which may or may not be in agreement with any other model or indeed with reality. Towards the end of the week confidence is incredibly low so don't panic!!!!!!
Tomorrow morning I will cover the latest UKMO model as well.

Tomorrow.
Snow moves in very early into the south west. By lunchtime it extends most the way across the southern half as far north as London . Much of Wales has snow by evening. London has a lot. NE scotland continues to be plagued. Some southern coastal areas could see some rain.

Tuesday.
Patch light snow across the south. maybe slightly warm in the sE

Wednesday.
Interestingly it shows the snow moving in fro the SE (again may be a bit warm in Kent for snow) Evenstar - if this actually played out then I think that if you go in the morning you would be fine.

Overnight a lot of widespread snow.

Thursday.

still a lot of snow in the morning and all through the day - widespread on this forecast as in maybe some of Scotland escapes and perhaps the far SE and EA have rain. Will be very interesting to see if the next model run and UKMO show this too because it would be a very difficult scenario.

Habbibu - watch this space!!!

Christmas eve:
Again UK wide snow showing (apart from far SE and EA)

Christmas day:
dry for most with some snow and perhaps a bit of rain pushing into the sW by evening. #in general very widespread cold.

Eek! thanks so much, kitten.

Thanks, I was aiming to get away early, so will make sure we are loaded up and on the road as soon as possible.

You are welcome :)

eek was pretty much my reaction!!!!
This week is going to be a bit challenging!

Good plan evenstar. Worth checking the latest met office warnings before you go too.

Oh heck kitten! Is my trip looking foolhardy or will getting back tues or weds keep us safe? One of our visitees isn't there anyway, waiting on a flight into heathrow, another is snowed in...

I think ducky if I were to have to travel then I would absolutely choose the first half of the week, esp away from the south or the NE or Scotland.

i'm hving a lovely sloe gin before going off to bed so I darent attempt any more serious analysis. All I'll say is that it was a bloody good year for sloes this year!

:) tough that is very kind.

Oh blimey OYSSK. Looks like a lot of plans are going to get canned this week.

Do you think the band of snow will go just north of London tomorrow or mainly stay south?

Thanks kitten you have certainly earned your sloe gin this weekend!

So still no snow for Norfolk? Honestly, it's like we've been cut off from the rest of you.

Maybe some rain.

Rubbish. Just rubbish.

YY - will it stay over London? Particularly concerned about Thurs (as DP's supposed to be travelling), Fri (parents are travelling) and Sunday (I'm travelling). Moral of the story is, we should all stay put.

But I point blank refuse to. I'M GOING TO ROME DAMN YOU

mychat - the models I think would say for just north but yesterday they got that somewhat wrong.

I'm off to bed - amd I'm afraid I have some bad news for you all, tomorrow morning I'm off up to London and Olympia (horse show) and very well may not be back until tuesday. I booked a room after seeing the UKMO this morning and it looks like we will need it. I will have my phone but no access to models, just basic phone internet. I may well be asking you all what my prospects are :)

abs - there will be a break between tomorrow and the next batch. Will update with the latest in the morning before i'm off (have set the alarm early)

MissA - sorry!

goodnight all :)

Good luck for your trip OYSSK hope its not too snowy for you. Thanks for the update (will be on snowwatch tomorrow as DH works in Bristol and im worried about him getting back to Wilts).

Have a fab time OYSSK and a good break from all this.

Just looked on the Met Office Invent and wow yep looks like we're in the firing line.

OYBBK - you are the best better than the Met Office

Have a great trip, kitten. Wear something distinctive, so we can see you on TV!

Wow. Thank you kitten.

And DAMN. Have 300 mile drive on Thursday. Can anyone suggest any accomodation in Stranraer?

Just wanted to say a great big thanks to Kitten, you're so kind to do this for everyone!

Enjoy the horse show have been before and loved it

ok, first of all - today's snow.

looks rather heavy in Dorset! This area will slide east and perhaps north. I've seen 3 different scenarios for today:
1)met office invent have it sliding through the channel mostly, disrupting the southern coast but not much elsewhere.

2)UKMO weather model have it spreading much more with heavy snow showing this evening in London. Wales is really affected too.

3)GFS have it covering southern England and much of Wales but light snow and not as dramatic as UKMO.

Take your pick.

Some of south west under extreme weather warning

Ok onto the next few days:

Tuesday:
GFS shows widespread light snow for the midlands southwards (missing norfolk)
UKMO confines it further south

wednesday:
snow starts off in Wales and some of the SW in the morning. might be rain in the far sE. Later in parts of EA it shows rain for some and snow for others.

thursday:
Yesterdays widespread snow has vanished again1!!! dry and cold for most

Friday :
again much less snow - dry for most with snow moving south from Scotland into northern england.

Don't things change!!!!

ok, back :) (spotted the red weather warning for somerset)
Christmas day:
Dry almost everywhere.

Weather from the atlantic is waiting in the wings and after Christmas day it tries to push in. it may succeed for a bit, esp in the west.