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Olympic Weather Forecast thread

116 replies

Ohyoubadbadkitten · 21/07/2012 16:30

I've dithered between putting it in this section and the weather section.....

Quick disclaimer: Remember I'm an amateur forecaster and so I do get things wrong. Please don't make critical decisions based on any forecasts in this thread!

I'll only work up to 10 days in advance (which is five more days than I do normally any more than that and it really is getting into utter guess work. Anything after 5 days is really just trends and possibilities) Also please bear with me if I dont get round to answering everyones individual questions. As we go through the days the forecasts will change.

So:
27th July (Opening Ceremony)
All 3 main models I look at are showing a low pressure developing to the south with a warm (hot in the se?) and humid air mass. This means that heavy showers are likely in the south possibly with thunderstorms. (nature adding an extra light show to the evenings entertainments?)

Sat 28th July
Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. (In Scotland it looks bloody cold according to GFS, with temps struggling to reach 10C!) Unsettled with widespread showers.

"Sun 29th July*
Looking decidedly unsettled according to GFS with low pressure dominating and cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. However ECMWF looks more optimistic with high pressure forming in the wings - so lets hope that is the more accurate model :)

OP posts:
Ohyoubadbadkitten · 24/07/2012 11:07

:) how lovely that you can enjoy your garden this week! Fingers crossed for the 11th.

OP posts:
Ohyoubadbadkitten · 24/07/2012 11:55

Cool new forecast types from the met office to help us with our planning. Off to see if they say what I say!

OP posts:
Ohyoubadbadkitten · 24/07/2012 11:56

oh :( seems that they only look a couple of days ahead at most.

OP posts:
PoppyWearer · 24/07/2012 12:30

Thank you OP! Am in the South-East and absolutely desperate for dry weather this weekend. Keeping everything crossed!

PoppyWearer · 24/07/2012 12:35

OP, I have linked to this thread from my "We Love the Olympics" thread in Chat, so hopefully that will bring a bit of extra traffic for you.

CointreauVersial · 24/07/2012 12:44

I'm here! Watching avidly, as I have a busy day on Friday, and need to decide whether to walk dragging three reluctant DCs to see the Olympic cycling. We are about a mile from the Box Hill circuit, but a lot of rain will turn a fun day out into a thoroughly miserable experience.

ajandjjmum · 24/07/2012 12:47

Just found this thread Kitten - thank you. At least the sunshine this week is making everyone smile - apparently the atmosphere at Olympic Park is brilliant today. DD is distributing suncream to the volunteers - and the army have stolen her water!!! Grin

The odd shower wouldn't be a problem - perhaps you could just cancel those thunder storms please?!!!

Ohyoubadbadkitten · 24/07/2012 12:51

splendid - thank you Poppy :)

CV it looks like a splendid day for watching now on Saturday :) Hooray!

OP posts:
Ohyoubadbadkitten · 24/07/2012 12:52

awww, I hope your dd has a lovely day aj - how exciting! :) is she there each day?

OP posts:
ajandjjmum · 24/07/2012 18:28

Yes - she's been 'chillin' with some very hot (as opposed to warm and sweaty) soldiers today apparently! Grin Lucky little madam!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch · 24/07/2012 21:15

OYBBK. Don't worry I think more people will come to the topic once things formally start. I might suggest MNHQ does a sticky to tell people about the topic....

MegBusset · 24/07/2012 23:01

I'm following with great interest. Don't care if it rains in London but would like sunshine in Cornwall for the whole fortnight please :)

Ohyoubadbadkitten · 24/07/2012 23:03

Will see what I can do meg, but if I'm successful I'm camping at yours!
:) thank you Doctrine. Hopefully I won't get things too disastrously wrong < refers people to disclaimer at the top of the thread>

OP posts:
Ohyoubadbadkitten · 25/07/2012 08:46

Morning all :)
Have introduced a Weymouth wind element. please, please note though that I'm reading that off a large scale map at coarse time intervals, so should be taken with a massive pinch of salt!

26th July - still hot for a good part of England and Wales Maybe the odd shower further north and cooler. Also perhaps the odd shower later in Wales.

27th July (Opening Ceremony)
Looking like a heavy showers day for much of the day in Scotland with the furthes north being most affected. Some showers in northern England too (and into the Midlands?) By the evening in the London area some heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms. This I'm afraid is looking quite likely to hit the opening ceremony. However, overall, for many, not a bad day in store :) Light winds

Sat 28th July
Much Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. In Scotland it looks pretty cold with temps struggling to get much above the low teens. Rain is showing a north south divide with the south now probably escaping. Light winds.

Sun 29th July
cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. Rain moves south through the day, Perhaps not reaching the south east until night time. (hooray) though the odd spot of rain about earlier in the day in that region. Light winds. Winds out to sea from Weymouth picking up to about 20KT (but light close to the coast)

Mon 30th
Looking cool and showery although the far south may escape relatively dry. Light winds. Winds out to sea from Weymouth picking up to about 20KT (but light close to the coast)

Tues 31st July

A wet day in store for for the bulk of England in Wales is now showing. light winds across the Uk. Light winds. Winds out to sea from Weymouth picking up to about 20KT

Weds 1 Aug, Thurs 2 Aug, Fri 3rd Aug
rather cool/cold and damp. Winds remain similar.

OP posts:
MyMelody · 25/07/2012 12:02

Thanks for thread oybbk, I am reading, I often read your weather threads but don't post much. I am in awe of your knowledge!

Ohyoubadbadkitten · 25/07/2012 12:28

:) thank you mymelody - I still have an awful lot to learn though!

OP posts:
Ohyoubadbadkitten · 26/07/2012 09:18

Morning all.
Have decided to remove any offshore forcasts for weymouth cos actually I think trying to pick wind speeds off a chart for a marine area is a bit of a nonsense. So can i refer you to magic seaweed which has a pretty good reputation.

26th July - still hot for a good part of England and Wales Maybe the odd shower further north and cooler. Also perhaps the odd shower later in Wales.

27th July (Opening Ceremony)
Two main areas of showers: The SE in the afternoon and evening. These could be thundery in nature and may extend into the London area. Scotland, with the northern half getting more persistent showers/rain but also extending to the south of Scotland at times. Still rather hot in the south East and central southern areas, but getting cooler as you go further north until positively rather cool in northern Scotland.

Sat 28th July
Much Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. In Scotland it looks pretty cold with temps struggling to get much above the low teens. Rain is showing a north south divide with the south now probably escaping. Light winds.

Sun 29th July
cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. Rain/showers moves south rapidly through the day all areas likely to be affected at times, though perhaps the far SE might not see too much, Light winds.

Mon 30th
Pretty much a north south divide until later in the day with the northern half likely to see rain. Pretty cool day everywhere. Light winds.

Tues 31st July

A wet day in store for for the bulk of England in Wales is now showing. light winds across the Uk. Cool

Weds 1 Aug, Thurs 2 Aug, Fri 3rd Aug
low pressure remains a dominant feature sadly. rather cool/cold and damp.

OP posts:
MyMelody · 26/07/2012 13:14

I must admit I'm pleased to see cooler temps coming as at nearly 9 months pregnant I've been pretty uncomfortable, esp at night! Dh and the dc are very excited about the forthcoming Olympics so maybe if I could time baby right paternity leave would allow extra viewing time haha!

Ohyoubadbadkitten · 26/07/2012 13:19

That must be really uncomfy!

OP posts:
MyMelody · 26/07/2012 13:29

Yes and the weather just seems to keep going from one extreme to the other this year, pouring down or crazily hot and muggy!!

OhYouGreatGreatBritain · 27/07/2012 08:27

Today (Opening Ceremony)
Got the timing of the showers in the SE a bit wrong it looks like they have arrived early. I know the bbc are saying it should be dry this evening, but actually there could be thunderstorms in the east and south east including the London area. Quite wet in parts of Scotland

Sat 28th July
Much Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. In Scotland it looks pretty cold with temps struggling to get much above the low teens. Rain is showing a north south divide with a few showers in the south of the UK, but the bulk being further north. Light winds.

Sun 29th July
cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. Rain/showers moves south rapidly through the day all areas likely to be affected at times, Light winds.

Mon 30th
Pretty much a north south divide until later in the day with the northern half likely to see rain followed by the south later. Pretty cool day everywhere. Light winds.

Tues 31st July

Wide spread showers across the UK . light winds across the Uk. Cool

Weds 1 Aug,
low pressure remains a dominant feature sadly. rather cool/cold and damp.

27th July (Opening Ceremony)
Two main areas of showers: The SE in the afternoon and evening. These could be thundery in nature and may extend into the London area. Scotland, with the northern half getting more persistent showers/rain but also extending to the south of Scotland at times. Still rather hot in the south East and central southern areas, but getting cooler as you go further north until positively rather cool in northern Scotland.

Sat 28th July
Much Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. In Scotland it looks pretty cold with temps struggling to get much above the low teens. Rain is showing a north south divide with the south now probably escaping. Light winds.

Sun 29th July
cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. Rain/showers moves south rapidly through the day all areas likely to be affected at times, though perhaps the far SE might not see too much, Light winds.

Mon 30th
Pretty much a north south divide until later in the day with the northern half likely to see rain. Pretty cool day everywhere. Light winds.

Tues 31st July

A wet day in store for for the bulk of England in Wales is now showing. light winds across the Uk. Cool

Weds 1 Aug,
low pressure remains a dominant feature sadly. rather cool/cold and damp.

Thurs 2 Aug, Fri 3rd Aug
perhaps drier?? Some little hints I think, esp for Friday before another low pressure is modelled by gfs to come in.

ajandjjmum · 27/07/2012 10:02

Love your new name - and for once I hope the BBC are right!!! Grin

OhYouGreatGreatBritain · 27/07/2012 10:10

I hope so too. aj.

ajandjjmum · 27/07/2012 10:12
Smile
TheDoctrineOfEnnis · 27/07/2012 15:27

I am reading too, thank you. I have tickets for tomorrow and I don't think there will be shade so pleased it will be cooler and cloudier!

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