The "independence pact"

[Sunnnyday]

I'm surprised no-one's started a thread on this, so here goes. The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have signed a Joint Memorandum of Understanding and have called on the UK Government to start preparing for constitutional change.
Listening to the BBC on this, there is currently no majority in favour of splitting from the UK in any of the devolved nations, though Scotland is closer to it than the other two. It's a matter of those who are currently in government being in favour, rather than their populations being in favour. So is this no more than a publicity stunt?
And should any referendum on such a huge issue, which, regardless of your viewpoint, will cause enormous contention, upheaval and disruption over many years, be on a majority vote basis? Have we learnt anything from Brexit?
I'm also confused as to why the leaders of Scotland and Wales are apparently confident that their countries would be swiftly welcomed into the EU, and how they would manage a hard border with England.

Westminster coming to an end, say Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish leaders - BBC News

Without taking any side here I can’t see any scenario where any future referendum will not be decided on a majority basis.

Anything else is immoral, undemocratic and frankly a cheat for those who prefer the status-quo.

As for the pact, I don’t really see how it will help any of the parties as the situations are so different.

Scotland is around 50:50 with support moving based on current events.

If the referendum was ran again during events such as the aftermath of Brexit, Boris scandals or Michelle Mone’s extortion then it would have been a yes vote.

Conversely if it had been ran during the campervan or gender fiascos then it would have been an easy no.

Interestingly, I read recently that if the 2014 ref was restricted to people born in Scotland then it would have been a yes vote on the same percentage as the Brexit one.

No matter what beliefs you have, if a majority of native born Scots wanted to leave then clearly there’s something wrong with the current set-up.

Ireland however is very different, demographic changes mean unionism doesn’t have an automatic majority any more and for the first time both sides are having to campaign on policies without purely being a tribal headcount.

Interestingly many people from traditional unionist backgrounds are now open to a united Ireland with the undecided voters holding the balance.

Sinn Fein holding the 1st Minister position would have been hard to believe even 8 years ago and having spent time there recently there has been a huge shift towards Irish culture.

I genuinely think it is just a matter of time before unification takes place, the GFA was designed for a peaceful transition of power so hopefully it serves it’s purpose.

Wales I have absolutely no idea over but was surprised that PC have so much support.

I think Britain needs to fix the social contracts and binds it once had or there will be change sooner rather than later.

What do you suggest is done? The last referendum was a truly vile time to live in Scotland. Truly vile. Divided whole communities. Speak to any economist. Indy would be incredibly economically damaging to Scotland. Who wants that? The trampling of people’s lives just for the sake of a passport. Have we learned absolutely nothing from Brexit?

If you’re looking to start a thread bashing independence you’re probably better off just joining another one of the few thousand that are already on here, you’ll have no shortage of contributors to the echo chamber.

Whether you like it or not the debate isn’t going to go away, support for remaining in the uk is now only a majority in the 65+ age groups and 50/50 between 55-64.

Amongst younger people support is massively skewed towards independence.

The issue the the Union has is that traditionally most people tended to move towards the status quo when they got older due to assets built up/pensions, but the younger generations don’t have the same opportunities as previous ones to build this wealth and the generations who were in young/mid-adulthood in 2014 show mode signs of changing their mind.

Outside of the fairly well-off middle classes and certain other communities around central Scotland there aren’t really the cultural links with the rest of the UK that there was when I was young in the 80’s/90’s, demographic/cultural change has made nations that were once reasonably similar seem miles apart.

I travel to London with work regularly and most younger people have no idea about Scotland at all, most didn’t know that part of Ireland was still in the UK (all came up during a strategy meeting), whereas the older ones were much more informed and likely to have family connections to the other nations.

The reality is that Londoners now are much more likely to have cultural ties to places like Nigeria, India and Pakistan than Scotland, to be clear there is nothing wrong with that, that’s where their family ties and backgrounds are from, but why would a young person in Dundee for example feel a cultural connection to London when it is one sided.

I guess its a case of choosing which one to suffer...Either way its going to be hard going forward.

If we had a ref where all UK could vote, Scotland would be independent as we are apparently such an economic drain on the rest of the UK - it seems to be across people from all parties as well. But also, we don't get a say in anything that is decided for the UK as a whole in the current set up.
If they are such a drain, with no

Why should it not be on a majority vote basis? What other way could it be done?

Personally, its something I would be willing to suffer through. I say that as someone who has spent 37 of my 44 years here, but who is technically English and Irish by blood (originating from Cork and Essex).

In regards to the EU, I think its was because it had been regularly stated by the EU administration that they would be welcomed

@DontEatTheMushies Has the EU administration said that (and regularly)? Where? I'd love to see that.

This seems to the the Scottish Government's position

Scotland could rejoin EU 'smoothly' - independence paper - BBC News

I have to say, I think the EU (and the world, including Scotland) has enough to be working on at the moment - including now the potential annihilation of the human species by AI, on top of the war in Ukraine, the other ongoing wars, climate change, the loss of the US as a meaningful ally, and everything else. I very much doubt that it would welcome a membership application by Scotland (let alone Wales) with any enthusiasm. And that's even assuming that Scotland would meet the membership criteria.

Joining the EU as a new entrant includes:

Joining schengen.
Moving from a Scottish currency to joining the euro.
A hard border with rUK (with the exception of N Ireland).
Bringing the deficit down to 3% of GDP. It’s currently running at 12% WITH the Barnett formula funding 15% of the budget.

Thats just the initial stumbling blocks. There are many more. I’m not sure EU membership is something that will be possible for an Indy Scotland for many, many, many years, even if it was something Scot’s wanted.

In regards to the EU, I think its was because it had been regularly stated by the EU administration that they would be welcomed

This will entirely depend on Scotland (or Wales) fulfilling the economic requirements that the EU demands, which looks unlikely, and also committing to the Euro and to becoming part of Schengen.

@DontEatTheMushies has said this about the message we're being given by the Scottish Government that a newly-independent Scotland joining the EU would be a quick and straightforward process:
"In regards to the EU, I think its was because it had been regularly stated by the EU administration that they would be welcomed"

I've invited her/him to provide proof of that, and look forward to receiving it. The only thing I've personally ever seen from the EU on this has been a clear message that Scotland could not apply to join the EU unless independent (because Sturgeon didn't seem to be clear on that point), and that it would then have to go through the application process.

We would find ourselves in the position of being out of the UK (by far our most important trading partner, far more important than the whole of the EU) and not in the EU. That would be an indefinite and possibly a permanent situation.

And yet the message sent out to the people of Scotland by Sweeney this last week has been that in an independent Scotland in the EU we would all be £3,000 a year better off. No mention of any period outside of both the UK and the EU, and no mention of what would be the astronomical cost of leaving the UK (think about the amount of work and expenditure leaving the EU cost the UK, and Scotland is far more closely bound to the UK).

I'd also like him to explain that £3K figure. We have no idea what the arrangements would be between Scotland and England. Scotland has far more to lose from England than it has to gain from the EU.

Having Co pilot and chat gtp so easily available is really interesting when weighing up the pros and cons of Indy. They are totally impartial so you’re not hearing skewed views. Co pilot has the very best case scenario for Indy as a lot of initial financial pain that becomes manageable after 10 years or so and the no voters accepting it and no civil war breaks out like it did in Northern Ireland etc, with Indy becoming more normal rather than a long term fight..

AI isn't impartial - it reflects what it reads, which may well be biased. And it is likely to reflect what it knows you want to hear from it.

How much money has Sweeney put against the cost of splitting from the UK, both in terms of the enormous amount of resources that would have to go into it (does anyone really believe the SNP is up to it, or willing to do it?) and the likely effect on Scottish businesses and Scottish consumers. My guess is Zero.

Regarding the EU, I find it hard to believe that over the years they have incorporated Romania, Latvia & Lithuania but would not find a way to include Scotland.

This also raises an interesting point in that it would have been once unthinkable that any of these countries would outperform the UK in living standards but now it is just accepted that many of these countries have a higher quality of living than us now.

I also feel that many of the EU arguments are so focused on Scotland as it is today and not what it could become.

I understand that we have a deficit but the reality is that it is down to the mismanagement of the whole UK and the concentration of wealth that has become so unequal it is borderline criminal.

I would love for someone to explain why Scotland has such a deficit when proportionally in comparison to the rest of the UK each resident has -

• 84.5 x the oil wealth per capita
• 3.2 x the agricultural capacity
• 1x (slightly higher) financial services wealth
• 0.9x manufacturing capacity (10% lower)

All of this has been achieved even with the abandonment of many areas and London Centric policies.

I really don’t like how dismissive that some people are about independence voters when they talk about economics with the assumption that they don’t understand how painful it would be.

The reality is that most people do understand how painful it would be, they just think that it’s worth it for the chance of a better future and as a reality check most of the country are already going through painful economic times without any of the hope that something new would bring.

Who is "Sweeney"?

Be

I'll correct it

Apparently we can't correct typos anymore - but I'm sure you can work it out, Differentforgirls. I know you're well up on the SNP.

Ignore my last post, my phone had a senior moment.

This is very true regarding AI, however countries that broke away from the Soviet Union that were much poorer and had much less resources than Scotland managed to turn around their economies in ten years, the same as some of the Balkan countries after being torn apart but war, so I do not see how Scotland could not turn it around in ten years.

Again the ‘too wee, too stupid’ argument.

@Meeplemakeglasgow What makes you think that people realise how painful it would be? Please provide any evidence of that. I've seen the opposite. Just one example - I used to be on the long-running Brexit thread, populated by those of us who were very against Brexit. A woman on that thread, who lives in the west end of Glasgow, was (probably still is) a big independence supporter. At one point she wrote, with great awe, that the Scottish government wasn't like Boris Johnson, who went into the first Brexit negotiation with the EU with no documentation. No, she said that the Scottish government had an entire leaver-arch file relating to leaving the UK. AN ENTIRE LEAVER ARCH FILE!!

Yes, Estonia (the one I've been to and know something about) seems to have done an incredible job. It has a very tough education system which it takes very seriously. They make it clear to their citizens that everyone of them counts - they all have to play their part. I fear that in Scotland we have the opposite of this.

@Sunnnyday To pose a question to you, do you believe that if a Scotland did become independent that the Scottish people have the skills, drive and ingenuity to make the country a success?

As I’ve stated our industrial, agricultural and business capacity isn’t a problem and we have a highly skilled educated workforce.

You clearly want to stay in the UK, it’s a valid opinion (and one I voted for in 2014), but your points are mostly based on why Scotland shouldn’t do something and not why they should want to stay in the UK for positive reasons.

Would that not ironically be an argument for independence?

I agree that there is little belonging or cohesion in society as it stands and we are culturally adrift from the rest of the UK, so would independence not be a chance to build a society again?

I still grieve leaving the EU. I would love to be in the EU again. But I think that the Scottish Government is deliberately encouraging voters (potential Indy ref voters) to believe that it's basically a done deal and that everything will be quick, straightforward and profitable. It's actually just told us that everyone will be £3,000 better off when we're in the EU. Nothing whatever that I've seen about the time, cost, problems and risks of leaving the UK and seeking to join the EU.
I don't agree with you that the younger members of Scotland's workforce are well-educated, no. I think that the current education system, both primary and secondary, is a dumbed-down disaster. And there seems to be a lot of emphasis on young people's rights rather than their responsibilities, what they can do to contribute to society, etc. And I'd be interested to know how many people in Scotland are on benefits.
I'm not sure how widespread the "skills, drive and ingenuity" you talk about are. They certainly exist, but do we have enough of them? Our education system doesn't encourage our young people to gain those attributes, though I'm sure some teachers and headteachers are doing their best in difficult circumstances.

I'm always hearing on here that Scots are culturally very similar to the English. Apparently survey after survey shows that there's basically no difference between them.
In the UK a lot is centred on London. I suspect that you'll find that people who live in the regions and always have done feel somewhat "different" and "isolated". Whether they live in Cornwall, Boston or even Birmingham.