The "independence pact"

[Sunnnyday]

I'm surprised no-one's started a thread on this, so here goes. The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have signed a Joint Memorandum of Understanding and have called on the UK Government to start preparing for constitutional change.
Listening to the BBC on this, there is currently no majority in favour of splitting from the UK in any of the devolved nations, though Scotland is closer to it than the other two. It's a matter of those who are currently in government being in favour, rather than their populations being in favour. So is this no more than a publicity stunt?
And should any referendum on such a huge issue, which, regardless of your viewpoint, will cause enormous contention, upheaval and disruption over many years, be on a majority vote basis? Have we learnt anything from Brexit?
I'm also confused as to why the leaders of Scotland and Wales are apparently confident that their countries would be swiftly welcomed into the EU, and how they would manage a hard border with England.

With the threat of Russia increasing all the time, this would be a monumentally stupid thing to do.

We need to unite and stick together. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Russia, China etc are influencing social media posts and AI bots to influence people’s opinions on this and to sew division.

Even without bots, (not denying they’re there) there’s no doubt that social media has had a bad effect on political debate.

That's been confirmed and Scottish independence is one of the areas which has been targeted to ferment unrest.

It was reported back in January that "...the foreign affairs select committee heard evidence that bot accounts based in Iran were fomenting support for Scottish independence in an attempt to destabilise the UK...After internet shutdowns inside Iran following escalating anti-government protests, 1,300 fake profiles seeking to influence discourse on Scottish independence, Brexit and institutional collapse went dark."

This was after it had been initially flagged up the previous year: "New research has uncovered an Iranian bot network targeting social media discourse around Scottish independence.

The study suggests more than 1,300 X users posting pro-independence content these past months were actually Iranian-backed bots.

The investigation, carried out by disinformation firm Cyabra, analysed conversations on the social media app – formerly known as Twitter – between May and June 2025, and found over a quarter of the more than 5,000 pro-independence users it examined were fake.

The accounts promoted a blend of pro-Scottish independence, anti-Brexit, and pro-Iranian narratives."

I don't think it's unreasonable or paranoid to be concerned about the efforts of outside powers wanting to encourage the weakening of the UK as it currently stands and to foster internal disharmony to distract us from outside threats.

The UK as it is is not working for all. We are officially classed as being "hypercentralised" in favour of London & SE England and Westminster is generally OK with that.

I am completely unhappy with an English voter dictating my future by dint of greater vote base or greater muscular political intent eg Brexit. Or Partition.

The breakup of the UK does not have to be the answer but neither is maintaining the status quo any longer the answer - hence Burnham's "No.10 North" plan - though that is still in England.

As an aside to my post above, maybe a Four State version a la Two State Israel Palestine that Westminster supports should be supported by Westminster at home.

Well therein lies one of the biggest myths about the "Union of Equals"

The four component parts might well be notionally "equal", but in any truly equal four-way partnership each of those component parts would hold 1/4 of the power and 1/4 of the clout. Except the way this "equal" partnership works is one partner has total hegemony and the ability to foist it's will upon the remaining three "partners" whether they agree or not.

Furthermore - proponents of the Union often state that we're all Brits, much the same, and therefore what's good for one should be good for the other, and this is why having 500+ English MPs meeting in a Parliament in England is a perfectly reasonable way to govern four separate Nations. If this were remotely true, then there should be no issue whatsoever with a 650 member Parliament meeting in Cardiff, where 300 members are drawn from Scotland and 300 drawn from Northern Ireland. After all, we're all Brits, much the same, and it doesn't matter right?

What this actually means in practice is "England gets what England wants and prioritises, to hell with anything else", which is why it's deemed perfectly acceptable to the "majority" of Brits, because the vast majority of Brits are English.

Many people voted for Brexit as a protest vote. I think that for many it was a power kick - they really felt that they were making their voices heard, that for once THEY would be the winners. But it made the lives of the great majority worse, as the country has become poorer. Indy has a very similar feel to it.

I don't think it's in any way a revelation that X in particular is littered with bad actors. You only need to look at the aftermath of the Musk takeover, his own personal politics, and what that meant for the platform. If you were present for that, there was an almost overnight shift to wholesale, noisy right-wing and far-right agitation on that site, in total contrast to the prevailing mood beforehand. That shift has only accelerated since, and unless you heavily curate what you allow it to show it is practically nothing but obvious bot and engagement trolls espousing right, far-right, pro-Russian, and pro-Israeli positions. It's not even subtle about it, and neither do the "fake" accounts do anything to hide the fact they are not real people voicing honestly held opinions.

I think that would be a fair comparison if the prevailing view of most proponents of Indi was to extract from the UK and then adopt an even further Isolationist position, but that's not the case. For a lot of people the pursuit of Indi is to facilitate re-engagement with the EU, because there is no sign of this happening if it's left up to the UK, and it's not coincidence that all the pro-Indi parties around the UK are also broadly pro-EU.

@XDownwiththissortofthingX Yet again, you're ignoring the fact that, in most areas, Scotland is governed by the Scottish Government, with only Scottish MPs speaking and voting in the Scottish Parliament. And in addition to that Scots elect further Scottish MPs to sit and vote in Westminster. So Scottish voters actually have more say in how they're governed than English voters do. English MPs in Westminster have no say over the many crucial matters that the Scottish Government is in charge of. But Scottish MPs in Westminster have a say in everything to do with England.

From the Scottish Government's website -
"What the Scottish Government does
The Scottish Government runs the country in relation to matters that are devolved from Westminster.
This includes: the economy, education, health, justice, rural affairs, housing, environment, equal opportunities, consumer advocacy and advice, transport and taxation."

So, how good a job do you think the Scottish Government, with the Scottish Parliament, elected by the residents of Scotland, are doing with the economy, education, health, justice, rural affairs, housing, environment, equal opportunities, consumer advocacy and advice, transport and taxation?

But the 2014 Independence Referendum was 45% for and 55% against. In 2014 there was no sign of the UK leaving the EU. So 45% of Scottish residents voted for independence for reasons that were unrelated to EU membership. In fact, had the vote gone the other way, Scotland would have left the EU and the rest of the UK would have remained in the EU.

The EU is totally irrelevant when talking of Indy Scotland though. It would take decades for Scotland to get itself into a financial situation to be considered for application. It’s laughable to ignore these facts. You cannot just turn your head to them and say that yeh is will be fine, we’ll hold all of the cards. That’s provable nonsense.

I wasn't talking about the EU with regard to the 2014 vote, that's done and dusted and isn't particularly relevant. What is relevant is that the majority of Scots, whether they support Indi or otherwise, are pro-EU and never wanted to leave the EU in the first place, so while there is no appetite whatsoever for the UK to rejoin the EU, Scotland becoming independent is the only viable route to that end regardless of the claims it would take "decades".

Yet again, you're ignoring the fact that, in most areas, Scotland is governed by the Scottish Government, with only Scottish MPs speaking and voting in the Scottish Parliament. And in addition to that Scots elect further Scottish MPs to sit and vote in Westminster. So Scottish voters actually have more say in how they're governed than English voters do. English MPs in Westminster have no say over the many crucial matters that the Scottish Government is in charge of. But Scottish MPs in Westminster have a say in everything to do with England

This is a total mangling of what actually happens.

Governance of Scotland is split roughly 60/40. Scots do not have "more say" in how Scotland is governed than the English do England, because England is governed entirely by an English based, Anglo-dominated parliament, a parliament which has 100% of the hegemony over England. The truth is Scotland has far less say in the running of Scotland than English do England, because everything coming out of Westminster regarding Scotland is dictated by the overwhelming majority of MPs who do not represent Scottish constituencies.

Presumably you are unaware of EVEL.

Scots MPs voting on English issues is a symptom of those MPs belonging to English parties but representing Scottish constituencies. SNP MPs only ever vote on English matters if it's something which carries consequences for Scots, e.g. NHS funding. If the other Scots MPs did the same then there would be nothing to gripe about, but they are whipped by their English party whips to vote along party lines, so it's a bit rich then to claim this is somehow unfair when the real oddity is that these MPs are members of an English party but don't see that as a problem or a bar to representing Scottish constiuencies.

@XDownwiththissortofthingX "Presumably you are unaware of EVEL."

It's frustrating trying to talk to someone who just appears to be spouting inaccurate propaganda. You apparently haven't even bothered to read this thread. I have already responded to the EVEL issue upthread. EVEL operated for 6 years, and ceased to operate 5 years ago.

"English votes for English laws (EVEL) was a set of procedures of the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom whereby legislation that affected only England required the support of a majority of MPs representing English constituencies. The procedures were in place between 2015 and 2021."

You seem to be saying that the Labour party, Conservative party and Reform party shouldn't be allowed to operate / have MPs in Scotland? Is that right? Because they're headquartered in and have the majority of their MPs in England?

I suppose that all you're saying is that you want Scotland to be a completely independent country. Whereas what it is is a part of the UK in which all the day to day running of Scotland is done by the Scottish Government via the Scottish Parliament, elected by Scottish residents. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have an enormous amount of independence, compared with all other regions of the UK. Believe it or not, there are enormous differences in the needs and wants of other parts of the UK (eg Cornwall or Kent), but they don't have the power to govern themselves, as Scotland does.

You say that governance of Scotland is 60/40? Well, almost everything that affects Scottish people on a day to day basis is devolved to the Scottish Government / Parliament. Including education, housing, planning, the health service, the roads and ferries, the economy, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, the environment, and much more. The SNP Government has been in charge of all this for the last 19 years. Has perfection now been reached in all of these areas? Do you seriously want the SNP Government to be in charge of defence and national security? It can't even successfully educate its own children. The SNP can't even put basic measures in place to stop its own staff embezzling hundreds of thousands of pounds of its own money.

@XDownwiththissortofthingX As far as the EU is concerned - as has been repeatedly explained on this thread (which you have apparently not bothered to read) - Scotland, were it to become independent, is nowhere near satisfying the requirements to apply to join the EU. It is far easier to envisage a future where the UK becomes substantially closer to the EU. That process has already started, in a modest way, with the UK re-joining Erasmus.

Don’t know where you live where all the children are uneducated considering more than ever got qualifications this year.

The easier you make the qualifications, the more people get them. Odd that.

How many did you sit?

More news about how successful the SNP Government is at governing Scotland. From the BBC -

"Drug deaths rise sharply in Scotland as figures remain worst in Europe.
National Records of Scotland (NRS) said the figure for 2025* *was 116 higher than the previous year, bringing the total deaths in a decade to more than 11,000."

"The most recent comparable data from 2024 shows that Scotland had an age-adjusted death rate of 216 per million compared with 91 for England, 140 for Wales and 135 for Northern Ireland."

I wasn't shocked by this news. What I was shocked by, though, was to hear the Scottish minister in charge actually accepting some responsibility for Scotland being the drugs capital of Europe (on the radio). That's not something that happens very often, is it?

My DC sat them. What's your point?

Hope you weren't as dismissive of their results as you were about the rest of our young people and their teachers.

I have a low opinion of the education system as a whole, including all the disruption and violence, and of the Curriculum for Excellence qualifications which our unfortunate children are required to cram for (very geared around exam technique rather than substance). I have sympathy for the young people who are offered that as their education system. They leave school much less well-educated than all the other young people I come across (from various other countries). The fact that my child went through that system doesn't change that. It just gives me more insight into the system.

No Iranian or Russian or whatever has influenced my belief that the UK needs some form of constitutional reset

@Sunnnyday

"More news about how successful the SNP Government is at governing Scotland. From the BBC -".

Yes. Not good at all.

But neither has Westminster excelled in reducing regional inequality in terms of life expectancy, life opportunities, wages & investment. And it is Westminster and it's ever present historial desire to still be the big "I am" on the world stage that is driving us all dangerously towards at worst a nuclear war with Russia, at best loss of critical infrastructure as winter closes in.

Equality of Governance & Respect is all that I ask if we "Celts" are to happily stay.