Saudi Arabia and Yemen actually.
The Iran situation was largely manageable until the Yemenis hit the east-west bypass for the Strait of Hormuz. Then hit a bunch of other Saudi facilities and then finally the port of Yanbu (yes the name kills me every time), where there was a refinery and storage facilities.
They DID have 5 to 7 days of supply there which would have helped.
Now they don't. So the Saudis have cancelled a number of European orders due to arrive at the end of September/ beginning of October today.
The Saudis had said they would repair the pipe quickly. However it's since been attacked in multiple places, is vulnerable to other attacks and they don't have the parts to get all the pumping stations back to full capacity. So it's going to take a while.
On top of that you have civil unrest in Syria now, because the government had put up fuel prices. Syria matters because Iraq who had put up the largest increase in production was putting out their oil by road via Syria. Iraq was also the launching place (by Iranian aligned military) for at least one of the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Going by road through Syria (if the Saudis had anything that is still functioning) would be one option (though they'd have to do some diplomacy). Except now unrest. Makes it more complex and expensive.
So it's now not all about Iran but wider instabilities in the Middle East. There's a lack of grasp on this. Oil markets needed stability. That's gone. God knows for how long.
Add to this refining capacity world wide for diesel. The US is currently operating at max capacity. Then one of their bigger refineries broke down yesterday. That's going to have an impact. The diesel they do import comes from (and you will like this) Canada. Today the US said it was considering banning exports of diesel.
Now the UK refines 50% of our diesel. The majority of the rest comes from the Netherlands. With some coming from the US and the remainder from the Middle East. But Europe has an overall lack of capacity. So basically when we run out of reserves (which have been lower due to the situation already) we start to have a problem because there's ultimately going to be shortages world wide. That means huge price spikes.
What do we use diesel for? Trains, tractors and trucks. These are kinda crucial.
This is without talking about the fertiliser crisis which is now already baked into next year's yields. Saudi was one of the biggest exports to Europe and North Africa. This spells famine for some. That spells more unrest elsewhere. That spells already problems.
So yeah.
I'm alarmed at how low it currently is on the news cycle. It should be higher.
It will get higher, especially with that Saudi news today.
Gas reserves across Europe are much lower than they should be too. Hence massive prices. 20% + on the Energy Price cap come Jan is what Martin Lewis is saying. So budget for this NOW.
If we get a warm winter it will likely be wet and cause flooding cos El Nino so I'm not sure that's a curse or a blessing if there's issues already.
This all means Burnham's budget plans are likely all going to go out the window and there's a high chance we'll be back into another crisis management situation. I really hope not but I've been watching this develop over the last two weeks with increasing concerns.
As for AI? AI is an energy eating monster... Energy eating monsters + fuel crisis? Perhaps isn't the combination that suggests we are all going to die in six months.
I'm far more worried about more concrete and old skool issues at this point personally
There's also not a huge amount we can do to prepare for this type of disruption. Battery packs, torches, food you can eat cold if god forbid we do get as deep as rolling blackouts (which they've been suggesting are possible for a couple of years), solar panels, more supplies in the house if we can't get to the shops as regularly/ there's less stock on the shelves due to shortages. But there's really limits.
Keeping in mind that the Red Sea is now effectively a pinch point for any shipping going through from China to Europe due to the Yemenis (Shein and Temu just got a lot more expensive and delivery times longer).
Oh and I've not mentioned how the Russians keep targeting power stations in the EU have I? Nor petrol stations in Ukraine so they are going to need support with energy too.
Yeah. A right fucking mess. You probably have already notices prices of petrol go up this week. That's going to feed inflation.
Yeah. Big squeeze one way or another I suspect.