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What will it take for the Government to enact welfare reform?

1000 replies

Schlossadler · 17/09/2026 16:00

What has to break, before the Government is finally willing to enact welfare reform?

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Badbadbunny · 18/09/2026 14:53

Theseagullwhisperer · 18/09/2026 14:51

But this is where you have got to take the ideology and the party political point scoring out of it.

You cannot fill the hole in the defence budget purely through cuts to welfare. Not one single serious economist believes that you can - not least because of cost-shifting. And most economists agree you can’t fill the hole purely through tax raises either. So, a middle ground has to be found, one way or another.

Other countries manage to take the party politics out of defence spending, and agree long term strategic plans that aren’t tied to electoral cycles. We need politicians grown up enough to do the same.

But you could say the same re NHS, benefits, and lots of other areas of government. When you have different political parties with very different view points, they really can't work together as they have very little in common.

Theseagullwhisperer · 18/09/2026 14:56

Badbadbunny · 18/09/2026 14:53

But you could say the same re NHS, benefits, and lots of other areas of government. When you have different political parties with very different view points, they really can't work together as they have very little in common.

You could - but on defence specifically other countries manage it in the national interest. Significantly, right now, those who share a border with Russia take this particularly seriously. And military chiefs in our country have long advocated for it.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2026 14:59

So Pakistan has already experiencing issues relating to energy shortages
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-disruption-hits-bangladesh-pakistan-gulf-crisis-worsens-2026-09-17/

It has now said markets, shops and malls must close by 9pm, while restaurants can operate until 11pm to conserve fuels and to try and keep government spending down it will cut fuel allowances for official vehicles by 50% for three months, reduce non-salary spending by 5%, suspend vehicle and durable goods purchases, and restrict official foreign travel.

Just a point because of the amount of manufacturing that's shipped to the UK such as textiles. If the factories can't manufacturer they miss deadlines, potentially for orders that have already been paid for. Or orders just aren't fulfilled. This has implications for buyers in the UK.

That's probably not good for the British economy full stop.

Pineneedlesincarpet · 18/09/2026 15:05

Theseagullwhisperer · 18/09/2026 14:51

But this is where you have got to take the ideology and the party political point scoring out of it.

You cannot fill the hole in the defence budget purely through cuts to welfare. Not one single serious economist believes that you can - not least because of cost-shifting. And most economists agree you can’t fill the hole purely through tax raises either. So, a middle ground has to be found, one way or another.

Other countries manage to take the party politics out of defence spending, and agree long term strategic plans that aren’t tied to electoral cycles. We need politicians grown up enough to do the same.

I think you just decide to fund defence immediately and properly due to the clear threats we are facing. And not wait until next year. The Conservatives would act now. Labour don't seem to be able to.

EasternStandard · 18/09/2026 15:08

Schlossadler · 18/09/2026 14:28

Sir Stephen Timms, the disability minister, is drawing up plans for wider reform of Pip, which is paid irrespective of employment status to compensate for the extra costs of ill health. His review is minded to scrap the current points system used to determine Pip eligibility, according to people familiar with its thinking. Instead, applicants would be triaged in an initial assessment and those with the most severe disabilities and terminal illnesses fast-tracked for payment.

Those with fluctuating conditions, including mental health problems, would be given more detailed face-to-face assessments and offered support from a broader menu of options than currently available. For some claimants, this would include equipment, aid, transport or therapy instead of cash payments.
FT

Interesting.

EasternStandard · 18/09/2026 15:09

notanothernamesurely · 18/09/2026 14:48

Or just give every adult in the country £1000 a month. Don’t means test, don’t age link, don’t base on their working status.

Paid for from where?

ExpectMore · 18/09/2026 15:13

concertinacornflake · 18/09/2026 08:10

That's one side of the equation only. Maybe you know that or maybe you don't.

That money reduces future health costs, support costs, social work costs, justice costs, education costs, housing costs etc etc etc. That money delivers potential future earnings, tax revenue etc etc etc.

There's so much info out there on this.

So does not have the 3rd+ kid they can’t afford in the first place.

Badbadbunny · 18/09/2026 15:16

Pineneedlesincarpet · 18/09/2026 15:05

I think you just decide to fund defence immediately and properly due to the clear threats we are facing. And not wait until next year. The Conservatives would act now. Labour don't seem to be able to.

Labour can't because the Nation's finances are in a perilous state and the financial markets, from whom we'd have to borrow the money to fund additional defence spending, would punish us with even higher interest rates (we already spend more on interest than on education due to the humungous 3 TRILLION pound national debt!).

Badbadbunny · 18/09/2026 15:17

EasternStandard · 18/09/2026 15:09

Paid for from where?

Presumably all the money saved by not paying all the other benefits, i.e. disability benefits, housing benefits, state pensions etc., as presumably the £1,000 per person will be a replacement for all other benefits!! Surely they don't think it will be in addition to all the other benefits??

EasternStandard · 18/09/2026 15:21

Badbadbunny · 18/09/2026 15:17

Presumably all the money saved by not paying all the other benefits, i.e. disability benefits, housing benefits, state pensions etc., as presumably the £1,000 per person will be a replacement for all other benefits!! Surely they don't think it will be in addition to all the other benefits??

Idk but it sounds like a lot to pay even if it replaces other benefits. Not sure what the overall sum is.

ExpectMore · 18/09/2026 15:22

Jimmyneutronsforehead · 18/09/2026 08:18

Not many employers refuse to hire disabled people do they? I mean, legally they can’t so how can they be?

They do. If you've a visual disability it's especially difficult because you can't hide your disability until you're in, but if you've got a hidden disability and disclose your disability during the hiring process or ask for reasonable adjustments then who do you think employers will hire? Someone fit and well who they don't have to be lenient with in terms of absence or costs associated with adjustments? A lot of people with hidden disabilities don't disclose their disabilities at all, or wait until they've got their foot in the door and then find themselves managed out.

Re. the bus driver, there’s a difference between a power and an ability. Consider the poor bus driver who in your world has the power to disembark the group of drunken thugs refusing to move from the wheelchair space. What might the bus driver do?

Would I expect a bus driver to put themselves or other passengers in danger? No. But let's be real that it is actually usually people putting pushchairs here. It is a daily occurrence up and down the country that wheelchair users up and down the country are denied access to the priority wheelchair spot by drivers or by passengers refusing to move or fold down their pushchairs. If you've one bus every half an hour, and then 2 buses in a row refuse to let you on because you can't get into your space due to non wheelchair users, you're already an hour behind the first set of passengers who boarded. How will that help if you need to get to work?

Can you explain what you mean by changing redundant KPIs please.

Some metrics that employers use are completely redundant, and/or unrealistic. Things like X days in office per week, but you've just missed 4 buses because you're a wheelchair user, you get there and none of your team are in. Or targets that squeeze the energy out of it's employees but are wildly unrealistic to achieve - seen a lot of this in call centres. There are many other metrics too but I am sure they vary from industry to industry.

Can I also remind you that employers are people at the end of the day. If running a business (inc providing jobs for others) stops being attractive (or even viable!) they’ll just stop. As why would they? What would all these entitled (able bodied and disabled) employees do them? Demand “more jobs”? Think about it.

Well you sort of answered your first question here. Why would they hire those pesky entitled disabled people. At the end of the day employers have a duty to offer reasonable adjustments. It scales depending on the size of the business as to what is reasonable but there are a lot of things that are reasonable that employers aren't doing.

We’ve clearly different life experiences as I’ve never seen that to be the case re employers.

I’ve worked for a number of organisations now can probably approved the hiring of 500+ individuals and can honestly say disability has never been a factor. If anything, the push to ensure we’re doing the right thing and are not discriminating has probably swayed in the favour of disabled candidates over non-disabled candidates, rightly or wrongly.

i sometimes think people think there’s a big bad conspiracy out there when in reality there isn’t. People generally don’t have enough time to spend their time conspiring. Most just get on with doing a good job.

KittyCorncrake · 18/09/2026 15:24

Telecone · 18/09/2026 08:37

Have you ever left your house and actually met people? Tens of thousands of women are in shitty abusive relationships. They aren't in a safe position to report, leave the relationship with their children, and be safely homed without having to see their abusive ex again.

‘tends off thousands’???
Where do you get that stat if the women are not reporting this to the police?
Rather hyperbolic.
And the country cannot afford to support these ‘tens of thousands’ of women who apparently choose not to use birth control and so end up with…how many children? And children in abusive households.
Really??????

ExpectMore · 18/09/2026 15:26

CandyCrushLevel14809 · 18/09/2026 08:35

You realise people’s circumstances change - unemployment, illness…..

Both insurable, either through savings and / or purchased insurance. The state shouldn’t have to baby everyone. People should build resilience into their own finances

ExpectMore · 18/09/2026 15:27

Theseagullwhisperer · 18/09/2026 08:37

But the evidence is the two child benefit cap did not have any affect on how many children people had. https://cpag.org.uk/policy-and-research/our-position/two-child-limit

You can’t run a country like a sixth form debating society. There is no point pursuing an economically damaging policy - that costs the state money in health, education and social care, just to make an ideological point.

Hmm. Pretty sure that’s exactly what Kier did with Private School VAT…

bingobangs · 18/09/2026 15:34

ExpectMore · 18/09/2026 15:26

Both insurable, either through savings and / or purchased insurance. The state shouldn’t have to baby everyone. People should build resilience into their own finances

I don’t think that’s fair, I have had friends get ill very young which can make insurance prohibitive.

Theseagullwhisperer · 18/09/2026 15:34

Pineneedlesincarpet · 18/09/2026 15:05

I think you just decide to fund defence immediately and properly due to the clear threats we are facing. And not wait until next year. The Conservatives would act now. Labour don't seem to be able to.

Look, at the end of the day both Labour and the Conservatives have been guilty of neglecting defence spending over many years.

Both Labour and Conservatives agree defence spending needs to increase.

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have an economically sound proposal as to how to immediately do that. The Conservatives claim they have but in reality independent economic analysis shows you can’t fund defence through welfare cuts alone (not least because of our old friend, cost shifting): https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comment/welfare-versus-defence-framing-oversimplifies-difficult-trade-offs

I get why the Conservatives want to make this into a wedge issue for party political reasons, but that won’t make the country safer. Proper long term, consensus building politics - like the Norwegian 12 year defence plans - might.

2GFYYH2.jpg

The “welfare versus defence” framing oversimplifies the difficult trade-offs | Institute for Government

Lord Robertson is wrong to suggest welfare cuts alone can pay for defence.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comment/welfare-versus-defence-framing-oversimplifies-difficult-trade-offs

Pineneedlesincarpet · 18/09/2026 15:35

Badbadbunny · 18/09/2026 15:16

Labour can't because the Nation's finances are in a perilous state and the financial markets, from whom we'd have to borrow the money to fund additional defence spending, would punish us with even higher interest rates (we already spend more on interest than on education due to the humungous 3 TRILLION pound national debt!).

We know Labour cant. Which was why I was suggesting to @Theseagullwhisperer that a cross party concensus was unlikely.

Why they need one with their massive majority anyway I do not know. Maybe AB needs the opposition to help him with his votes against the wishes of the PLP.....

Pineneedlesincarpet · 18/09/2026 15:36

Theseagullwhisperer · 18/09/2026 15:34

Look, at the end of the day both Labour and the Conservatives have been guilty of neglecting defence spending over many years.

Both Labour and Conservatives agree defence spending needs to increase.

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have an economically sound proposal as to how to immediately do that. The Conservatives claim they have but in reality independent economic analysis shows you can’t fund defence through welfare cuts alone (not least because of our old friend, cost shifting): https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comment/welfare-versus-defence-framing-oversimplifies-difficult-trade-offs

I get why the Conservatives want to make this into a wedge issue for party political reasons, but that won’t make the country safer. Proper long term, consensus building politics - like the Norwegian 12 year defence plans - might.

Edited

Why does AB need the Conservatives with his huge majority....?? Are you suggesting AB cannot control his party?

ExpectMore · 18/09/2026 15:36

Pineneedlesincarpet · 18/09/2026 09:47

Is it your ideology then that the taxpayer funds the lifestyle of anyone who decides to make any decision that they cannot pay for? You are taking away personal responsibility and the concept of standing on your own two feet. This is why the welfare class is growing so rapidly. It's is so destructive for the individual and the country. It needs to be curbed as soon as possible (ie 2029 with any luck).

This. We need for self responsibility in this country. Not learned helplessness with the state picking up what should be basic responsibilities of an individual.

Look at even the energy price increase recently. People aghast at the fact that (surprise surprise) energy prices might go up and demanding that the government step in and bail them out. Rather than living within their means, building a buffer, so on and so forth.

They forget that the government bailing them out is just (a really inefficient and thus expensive way for) other people paying for them.

Look at maslow’s hierarchy of needs. People aren’t even taking responsibility for their most basic needs. It’s ridiculous.

bingobangs · 18/09/2026 15:38

@Theseagullwhispereragree it’s needs to be cross party consensus

Pineneedlesincarpet · 18/09/2026 15:40

bingobangs · 18/09/2026 15:38

@Theseagullwhispereragree it’s needs to be cross party consensus

Why though? Labour have a huge majority. They don't need the consent of other parties.

Its because the PLP won't agree in reality isnt it.

bingobangs · 18/09/2026 15:40

Look at even the energy price increase recently. People aghast at the fact that (surprise surprise) energy prices might go up and demanding that the government step in and bail them out. Rather than living within their means, building a buffer, so on and so forth.

I thought the backlash to means testing winter fuel was crazy & the threshold is still to high.

bingobangs · 18/09/2026 15:42

@Pineneedlesincarpetpersonally I think things like defence, the NHS needs long term strategy so it’s pointless having one party introduce something that another party then reverses if they get into power.

Theseagullwhisperer · 18/09/2026 15:42

Pineneedlesincarpet · 18/09/2026 15:36

Why does AB need the Conservatives with his huge majority....?? Are you suggesting AB cannot control his party?

It’s not about Andy Burnham. It’s not about Keir Starmer. It’s not about Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss or Boris Johnson or Theresa May.

That is the whole point of a long term strategic defence plan - like the ones other countries - notably those who share a border with Russia and therefore understand the very real dangers of the world we live in - have.

A long term defence plan would be agreed by all parties, over a period outside of the electoral cycle so the military are never dependent on how popular a government or its leader is or isn’t. It is intended to provide predictability for the armed forces and the defense industry, ensuring procurement etc is not canceled or altered by a change in government. Military leaders have long advocated for it to happen in the UK.

ExpectMore · 18/09/2026 15:43

Pasithean · 18/09/2026 10:03

If they sorted out the nhs especially the waiting lists sickness benefits would fall. My cousin is waiting for a hospital test , cannot return to work until it is sorted. , her date is quoted as well into next year. .

Why doesn’t she go private? Could it maybe be done more quickly that way? I’ve given up on the NHS and normally go straight to private. Even for GPs. It’s embarrassing how quick you can get an appointment mainly because they bother to organise themselves properly vs the NHS.

Sadly I don’t however get a discount on my NI contributions…. Now there’s an idea?

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