How long do you give Andy Burnham as PM?

[AndyBurnham2L]

Build ‘em up.
Knock ‘em down.

Short honeymoon and then the grumbling will start. It will all be over for him by Christmas.

So, who’s next?

Starmer was supposed to undo 14 years of Tory rule and 6 years of Brexit immediately. Burnham might get a brief honeymoon but they’ll start baying for his blood by Halloween.

Probably 6 months. Really bored of this revolving door or PMs, it is so disruptive.

Based on the next 'regular' one (before Aug 2029) or one called early?

Well he’s clearly not very good. He’s in fact a very low grade offering. He’s the damp squib end of the Labour Party.

Unfortunately I think we are stuck with him to the next election. The next general election must be called by August 2029.

It will be the summer recess now and then when they come back in the Autumn he'll have honey moon time backed with a big majority with new legislation in the last quarter of 2027 and first quarter 2028.

The unpopularity and fuck-up fall out of his rabid left wing socialim won't really get going until early- mid 2028 by which time the Labour party will feel they are in the run up to a general election and it will be too risky to change the leader again. It will be a case of who else have we got that could be better? There will be no clear answer so it would be too messy. They will all be looking back wondering why they got rid of Keir Starmer so readily when they ended up with even more of a big pile of excrement.

There was some interesting reporting about comments from people who had worked with Burnham in Manchester saying that he was unfit to be Prime Minister as he is extremely indecisive and dithers.

No I think they will change him out before the next general election, we all know it’s going to be bad and worse than Starmer, the public will be really fucked off, so they will find someone more centralist, apologies for the errors of the past, blame the tories and try to save at least some MPs.

It’s quite shocking that they’ve no decent offerings. Andy Burnham? It’s a bit laughable, except it’s not funny is it, it’s serious. Let’s hope his dithering prevents him from acting on his stupid notions.

Clearly?

Starmer has given Sadiq Khan a peerage and wait for it... June Sarpong! FFS.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cglj25k94r9o

If this is Starmer's standard, god knows what idiots Burnham will elevate to the Lords.

Last person out turn off the lights.

He’ll limp along to the next election

He did a fantastic job as a stateman guiding us through USA and Ukraine. I think the rise in minimum wage has helped as everything is so expensive so it was needed. NHS waiting lists has dropped However every govt including this one never gets a handle on the spongers who never want to work.

Fundamentally the country has to battle an ageing population and shrinking workforce. So it can't grow without massive innovation (AI) or immigration. Given that innovation's main benefit seems to be in growth of profit through reduction of workforce, the country as a whole can only grow if those resources can be deployed elsewhere and don't just go on the dole or the sick.
Anyhow, that is the background to Burnham's arrival. To then basically be anti-business and pro-benefits, isn't going to get anyone out of that hole.
Starmer had a thumping majority and couldn't get any benefit curtailments past his own party. I still think the Tories are selfish for siding with the backbench rebels, despite welfare reduction being one of their flagship policies. Putting self interest above the nation.
So given that Burnham is going to wage war on middle class London and SE and shift wealth to the North, he may be popular initially (in the North), but eventually they will vote for Reform as they are gradually radicalised by social media.
And anyone who says "Labour needs to bring in a wealth tax", they already have, VAT on private schools, Mansion tax on £2m+ properties, increased CGT rates, adding pensions into estates for IHT. All of these are wealth taxes as they are only paid by the richest 1-5%.
So any thoughts that the rich get away with it are just propaganda.
Rant over.

This country is so divided, I've never known people to have such opposed views. He definitely won't please everyone and there will likely be shouts for change by Christmas.
With the Trump war, prices are set to rise. I don't think there is much any Prime Minister can do to prevent this, but people will hold him accountable.
Then, based on the trend of applying pressure on Prime Ministers to resign and switch leaders, I reckon there will likely be demands for a general election and Reform will be in with a good chance of winning as people believe that a gamble on an untested government is worth a shot, as opposed to sticking with Labour or Conservative governments. I can understand this thinking but don't agree with it, they have little to offer beyond satisfying the "stop the boats!!!" brigade.
The country was inherited from a conservative government in such a state. They need to undo many years of hard cuts and improve services again, but no one wants to pay for this.
I personally approve of Andy Burnham but don't envy his position.
I am hoping he will change Rachel Reeves and Bridget Phillipson for a start. As a teacher, I don't think Phillipson has an understanding of education, the pressures schools face and her decision to recruit Gemma Collins as a spokesperson, made a mockery of issues in education. Completely out of touch.
I actually don't think Kier Starmer got a fair shot, it was going to take time but, as others have mentioned, people expect everything righted immediately.

I’m hoping his tenure is short and ideally a Liz Truss type flash in the pan. He has an enormous ego despite his very limited abilities. I hope he fails spectacularly and everyone sees him for what he is: a grubby opportunist. Let’s hope he’s out by Christmas.

He was promoted every time he moved post when in govt.

Under Blair – in Govt

PPS in 2003
PUSS in HO 2025
Promoted to Minister of State in DoH in 2006
Promoted to Chief Sec to Treasury in 2007

Under Brown in Govt

Promoted Sec of State DCMS – Jan 2008
Promoted to Seco of Sate DoH June 2009

Under Miliband in Oppo

Shadow Sec of Education 2010
Shadow Sec of Health 2011 – 2015

Under Corbyn in Oppo
Shadow Home Sec 2015 - 2017

Not just fail, but fail spectacularly. Not much patriotism in you, is there?

I’m very patriotic, which is why I don’t want Andy Burnham running the country. It is now damage limitation.

Let’s be honest, he didn’t really distinguish himself in any of these roles. I remember the 2010 leadership race when he admitted he was astonished at how far he’d got in politics. I think we all were. He really doesn’t have much going for him and the whole northern working class man of the people shtick will wear thin very quickly.

I hope so. We just have to buckle down for the next 3 years particularly if you work hard and live in the South East.

I think Labour will keep him in situ until the next election as they should. He will likely be a disaster for the economy though as he doesn't seem to have much of a plan. It is easy to be a Regional Mayor dishing out the 'tax receipt' sweeties to pet projects. Quite another to take the hard decisions to get the country out of debt and back on its feet.

To answer your question with a question.

What does one think that Burnham can/will do differently from Starmer - in policy terms (i.e. not the u-turns, poor comms, and terrible appointments - Mandy, Rayner et al)?

Christmas max.

Let's hope he knows not to take lots of freebies like Starmer's lot so gleefully did...buy your own clothes and specs fgs.....

Budget will be a disaster, election by February

Burnham has been discussing being PM with members of the PLP for over a year, at least. So nothing to do with Mandelson or the local elections. To do with his plan to be PM.