How long do you give Andy Burnham as PM?

[AndyBurnham2L]

Build ‘em up.
Knock ‘em down.

Short honeymoon and then the grumbling will start. It will all be over for him by Christmas.

So, who’s next?

Thank you @Visiblyabove25. It’s so refreshing to see calm, rational and intelligent contributions to the political debate here. I hope you’ll stick around, that kind of input is badly needed.

I think the vacuum in policies and scrutiny is leading people to fill in the gaps with what little we have to go on.

I’m confused how the financial devolution will work. It’s only to mayors in cities, “metro mayors “. Presumably this will impoverish the countryside and smaller town even further, unless I’m missing something? As it stands, it doesn’t seem fair.

I completely hear what you are saying, but do you not think the constant media-driven clamouring for instant answers is harmful to our political discourse?

A lot has been announced in the last few days, so personally, I don’t see a lack of policies, although I do totally agree there isn’t much clear detail yet, but then would you really expect there to be? Complex social and economic issues require careful, long term thinking - which I guess is what we have to hope the Prime Minister is doing right now.

No
Those without mayors will still get grants
Those with mayors will get some grants replaced by these funds
Its not really about the value its about having more flexibility / independence as to what you do with it. And the incentive to have growth in your area = more £. Although that idea isn't entirely without flaws

I’m sorry but that’s obvious sophistry. If you want to attack me for language at least be honest and take the words I used, and Burnham used, sensibly.

The reason the 1970s were so shit was because of the very things that were corrected in the ‘80s. Nationalisation was an outstanding failure. It was also one substantial reason for the takeover of government by the unions. Burnham is explicitly supporting nationalisation in that quote.

Privatisation has been incredibly successful. You can argue about trains and water, but in a few years we’ll be bumping into the realisation that they were even more terrible when in state control.

As for decentralisation, I think you’ve got confused. Economic centralisation is exactly what a government aims for with nationalisation. That’s the point of it. What Burnham is talking about is decentralising the powers of social provision, which is all very well and might work, but might instead give us even more absurd local politics, Ken Livingstone and Derek Hatton.

I do wish you’d use the words ‘fact’ and ‘factually’ properly too.

@sleepwouldbeniceOh I see. That’s good. It was presented differently in press. I’m overall quite hopeful about Burnham, other than on the Israel/Palestine issue.

I really, really do not think it is sophistry to point out that Andy Burnham has not said something his detractors keep insisting he has said. All I can tell you is when I heard that speech, I did not think, “oh, he wants to take us back to the 70s, then”. Because I just don’t think he does.

Yes, Andy Burnham is talking about a return to public control for water and transport - but that is not synonymous with “going back to how they did it in the 70s”. There are different models for public control. You’re right that 70s nationalisation meant economic centralisation: Whitehall took the tax and made the decisions. But that’s not the model Andy Burnham is talking about: he is talking about using regional franchises - as has been done with the Bee network.

I don’t think most people are that ideologically fanatical about either public or private ownership - they just want essential services that work. Andy Burnham talks like a man who has pragmatic, solutions focussed ideas to make that happen, and I think that why he’s cutting through.

We really need to get past the tribalism of this was ALL good and that was ALL bad.

I didn’t agree with privatisation but it seems to have worked for gas and electricity. On the other hand it has been a spectacular failure for the railways and water.

In the 70s the unions abused their power, but it was also the decade that had the greatest social mobility and the sex,race discrimination acts were introduced, which were unarguably good things.

If we tie ourselves to a belief that one side is always right and the other side always wrong, we are going to swing from pole to pole compounding mistakes. How about we grow up as people and a country and acknowledge what is good and what is bad and move forward with consensus.

He's been plotting all this for over 12 months. Louise Haigh happily informed everyone.

Personally, I don't think that is something to boast about. It's not a very nice trait. Louise Haigh, Lucy Powell and other are looking far too pleased with themselves at the way they have overthrown the starmerites and excluded them from government.

Andy has been planning his changes for all this time, including number 10 North. He doesn't have a mandate for that. I doubt it is a priority for 90% of people in England. Cornwall is not in favour, nor is Scotland. I doubt that Wales is - though north Wales is fairly near Manchester.

I couldn’t agree more. Water privatisation has been a dismal failure which has created catastrophic environmental damage with the only beneficiaries being its executives and shareholders, it’s beyond me how anyone can defend it.

Yes, and the final blow - John Healey and his much-acclaimed reasons for resignation. He will now not commit to what he resigned over. It is essential that we hear about the defence plan from Streeting, ably backed by Healey if he has any integrity.

This is why Al Carns turned down a position in another ministry - we can see why it is important to have that extra independent voice on the back benches. I do expect far more from our government.

If Carns had the courage of his convictions he’d have got in there and fought for both the plan he thinks we should have - which isn’t the one we’ve got - and more funding. Anyone can heckle from the sidelines. He’s really gone down in my estimation and I rated him before this.

What Healey actually said was:

^At the spending review, we will set out a clear path to meeting our 3.5 per cent Nato commitment in 2035 and we will set a target date on that path for 3 per cent,” he said.
Healey said that he had discussed defence spending with Burnham before Burnham became prime minister and that he was equally determined to “keep the country safe”. He added: “As you'd expect, we have discussed a range of things including the challenge of funding defence. The determination that we share is to do what's necessary to keep the country safe, and a recognition, quite simply, of that truism, that for any government the first duty is to keep citizens safe”^

Al Carns, DSO, MC, was not offered another position in the MoD. You know that ministers have to vote with the government or resign. You can have an opinion but I would never question his courage:

Carns, who joined the Royal Marines at 19, was due to be promoted to brigadier this month, which at the age of 44 would have made him among the youngest in that rank. He has served in every major conflict this country has been engaged in for the last two dozen years.

Much of Carns’s service history – 14 of his 24 years – cannot be made public for security reasons. He won his Military Cross during a six-month tour that began at the end of 2010. Those of us who reported from Afghanistan remember the fierce, sustained violence of this period as the Taliban made increasing use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and lethal ambushes.
(The Independent)

I didn’t question his courage. I questioned the courage of his convictions. It’s entirely different.

I didn’t agree with privatisation but it seems to have worked for gas and electricity

Apart from all the gas and electric companies which went bust in 2021/ 2022. Which cost us as bill-payers money.

True that. It ‘seems’ to work for most people, including myself, in that it is not a total and utter failure like water.

Courage is having bravery and determination - I do not think it is fair to cast aspersions on his motives. He was not given the opportunity by Burnham to be in the MoD again and he was not given the confirmation that the issues were to be addressed, that had caused his resignation. And that of John Healey.

Agreed. But I am still bitter that I lost my lovely cheap tariff at the time 😁

Courage is having bravery and determination

Precisely. His life before politics led me to expect better. I’m very disappointed in him.

From what I am reading, from various sources, many more people are disappointed in John Healey. He was more senior and has done extremely well out of undermining the last government.

The thing that gives me confidence is that the bond markets haven’t moved in the last fortnight and business seems happy. I don’t know what “people” want from him. He hasn’t committed the government to anything apart from departmental savings which seems eminently sensible until he’s got his feet under the desk and knows what he’s dealing with.

It is in all our interests that our government has stability. The way that Burnham, and his closest ministers, have come to power does mean many of us will be thoroughly scrutinising what they say - and more importantly do. It is not our fault when there are glaring inconsistencies!

I hope you are right. We will have a better picture in the autumn, after the budget.

It was all a stitch up. Carns would never have got to be prime minister. He wasnt a well established politician.

Andy and Co had rigged the leadership long ago. Noone dared to support another candidate. Healey only resigned in order to create a stink and get Andy in. Anwar in Scotland is also engaged in dodgy dealings to get back in power. And the backbenchers are mostly quite happy with this. It stinks of corruption.

Wes streeting is not suitable to be defence secretary. He refused to answer questions about the 3% target this week. I thought he was a decent health secretary, but on reflection, he just talked the talk. Many of his new announcements had actually been happening in our area for over 20 years.

Wes is also a bloody wimp. He made a big deal over resigning but then didn't stand for leadership. He said he'd wait for Andy to come along. Pathetic.

But. Out of over 400 mps, the only one that they've got suitable as a leader, is someone who wasnt even an mp. Think about it.