@Alakazam8 I think that is likely, I'm afraid. But it was ever thus. I think this board sometimes gives the impression that almost everyone gets recalled and most of those recalled get a place in the company, but it's not true. DS and his friends, at 17/18, are well aware of how many older kids were recalled for Merrily and KMK, and are not counting any chickens at all.
However, to get to recall does mean you have the talent, and another year with another show you might well be cast. Hopefully, with the showcase and the workshop, plenty of those disappointed not to be cast in Armchair (the one Jordan was tweeting about) WILL be offered something good. Your DD did the showcase last year, didn't she? I'm sure you will be able to recommend it to anyone whose DC finds themselves in this position. We saw the showcase and loved it!
I'm glad to see things seem to be back to normal this year. It was always the case that the shows would be cast on the Sunday evening immediately following the recalls. I think Covid, and the storms last year, and the self-tapes, slowed everything down last year and dragged out the casting process. But I am crossing fingers that the casting is back to being based on what they saw in first rounds and had confirmed at recall.