Westminstenders: The Tunnel or Bridge

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently negotiations are in the black hole of the EU tunnel or should that be on the back of the fantasy of the Boris Bridge?

Another week closer to complete meltdown.

I'm guessing that our world beating customs solution will be based on blackboard and chalk.

Contact-tracing data harvested from pubs and restaurants being sold on

Well, not mine as I never downloaded the app as (a) I knew it wouldn't work, and (b) that details were going to be sold whatever anyone said.

Another win for the efficiency of cynicism.

Daily Express is hysterically funny with headline of "Irexit: EU nighmare as leading Irish politicans draw up plans to leave EU bullies"
Those "leading Irish politicans" are in a party that got 0.7% of votes in the last GE !

I suspect a Monster Raving Loony party could get about that, if run professionally

BigChoc
Manaus was awful
but it was an utter outlier
and should not be used for judgements elsewhere

@ListeningQuietly

BigChoc Manaus was awful but it was an utter outlier and should not be used for judgements elsewhere

... For European countries, we can look at Sweden:

Only some SD rules ...
Sweden has 5-12 x deaths / million of their similarly low pop density Scandi / Nordic neighbours who did lock down
and with similar loss in GDP predicted by their central banks for EOY 2020

The Uk was following the death curves of Italy, not Scandinavia
So would almost certainly have had multiples of current UK death total

UK antibodies ~8%
Even allowing for a likely drop of 5% since the measured peak, this is far below the up to 70% measured in some hard hit areas, that are probably near herd immunity

Herd immunity without a vaccine causes"overshoot",
i.e. requires 20-25% more people than via vaccine

Adam Kucharski (LSHTM):

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1305436391707467776.html

If you think pre-existing cross-reactive T cells will save us, read the scientist exasperated by people misusing her research to claim this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NatRevImmunol/status/1313531656771375104

Shane Crottyy@profshanecrotty*

https://nyti.ms/3kXgcQn
"The assumption that T-cells primed by common colds offer protection against SARS-CoV-2 is “completely speculative,” said Dr. Crotty

... “It’s possible they help.
It’s possible they don’t do anything.
And it’s possible they are harmful.”

Covid is just the latest corona virus
many of us who caught the December version seem to be immune
as is the case with the cyclical immunity to flu and cold viruses

I remain utterly unconvinced that COVID has been worth the stress caused
if nothing else because when the REAL pandemic comes
trust has been lost
worldwide

Useful to note that countries with higher deaths than comparable countries (population density, age demographics etc) also have greater falls in GDP

The predictions for EOY 2020 are even more striking than this chart:

@ListeningQuietly

Covid is just the latest corona virus many of us who caught the December version seem to be immune as is the case with the cyclical immunity to flu and cold viruses

I remain utterly unconvinced that COVID has been worth the stress caused
if nothing else because when the REAL pandemic comes
trust has been lost
worldwide

.... Have you had an antibody test or any other proof that you had Covid in December, rather than one of the usual winter bugs ?

Deaths for last winter were actually below the average of the last few years,
but if Covid was circulating widely then - with people indoors more and no SD - in the numbers claimed on MN, then the first wave would have been much earlier

You can't put off tackling the immediate emergency just because of a theory that a bigger one will be along sometime

If the UK had followed Sweden and its multiples of deaths higher than its neighbours

• which would be a damn sight higher deaths / million for the UK than for them

the NHS would have collapsed and the economy with it into meltdown

So the UK would be in a much worse state anyway to tackle any future pandemic, climate change, last revenge nuke strike by Trump or whatever

However, that was the first wave
Lockdown gained time
but if any govt have wasted that time, they should be held to account at the next elections

If the public then still care more about burger-eating techniques and squirrels then .... who has a plan ?

Have you had an antibody test or any other proof that you had Covid in December, rather than one of the usual winter bugs ?
No because I did not have COVID in December
nor did anybody else
we had the bastard December cold which was a different coronavirus
but near enough to COVID to give us protection
in the same way that related flus give protection from each other

hence my very deep irritation that this variant has been accorded messiah level status despite killing so few people who have it

if the next one kills 10% but the trust has been lost ....

@ListeningQuietly

Have you had an antibody test or any other proof that you had Covid in December, rather than one of the usual winter bugs ? No because I did not have COVID in December nor did anybody else we had the bastard December cold which was a different coronavirus but near enough to COVID to give us protection in the same way that related flus give protection from each other

hence my very deep irritation that this variant has been accorded messiah level status despite killing so few people who have it

if the next one kills 10% but the trust has been lost ....

.... Colds and bugs can be rhinoviruses, coronaviruses or other typpes of virus

If you read the links about cross-body immunity I posted, there is only speculation that this would help, even if you had a coronavirus

It obviously does not help anywhere near enough, or we wouldn't have had such high deaths in the first wave

• the ONS says > 57,000 of the 65,000 excess deaths are with Covid, with 90% of them caused by Covid - or the rising cases and deaths now

I presume people in Sweden had colds too, but that didn't stop the effect of no lockdown being 5-12 x the total deaths / million of their similar neighbours

Every little bit helps, but we need some SD measures,
just not the godawful continuing lockdowns of some areas for months,
or a 2nd national lockdown because the govt have buggered up testing, t&t and can't think of anything else.

DS1 has another chest infection. Has been home since last Mon. There are cases in his lycée (8 positive cases in one final year class alone) and so he needed a negative test to go back.
Got a prescription on Thurs, a test on Fri at 2:30pm and the results at 8pm today. Negative.
So he just needs to recover from his chest infection to return to school (and possibly catch Covid...).

Bigchoc
If the UK moved to a coherent 1m SD system
(every other seat in the theatre etc)
I'd be quite happy to comply with that for yonks
but this stupid 10pm curfew
resulting in crowd cricket in central London last night
and the wicked bans on visiting elderly relatives
are just wrecking trust at a time
with Climate change looming
when we need it most

The evidence for cross immunity with other human coronaviruses is slim - in fact if anything the evidence is that there isn't any (eg Pasteur institute study this summer). Disappointed to see bad science being spread here.

Isn’t that the point? That this was a contract between people and government. If the government had fulfilled their part and handled the pandemic professionally and effectively, according to the scientific consensus, and with probity then more people would be prepared to comply with infection control measures as they have in other countries, including actually Sweden. Their death rates would have been even worse if people had not complied with the voluntary recommendations. www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

But 67% now say that the government has been incompetent and into the vacuum rides this sort of nonsense. What links Brexit and Scamdemic - the Koch brothers again bylinetimes.com/2020/09/23/scamademics-right-wing-lobbying-groups-reviving-herd-immunity-in-the-uk/?fbclid=IwAR2UP9rsIlvU-bfpRekysrssWf1DOGl1u2rwz06bNuibXNodlJd5_5ZEaeM

One member of my household has Covid antibodies, we don’t know about the rest of us. We were also almost certainly exposed to SARS in 2003. Has anyone had a child have diarrhoea followed by a chest infection especially during a trip to Shanghai in February 2003 when it is known it was transmitting in transport routes out of Guangdong. We are not remotely complacent though because nobody knows what the immunity to this thing is. I know families where all had the symptoms innMarch but only one has tested positive for antibodies. And staying 2m away from people and wearing a mask ain’t that much to ask, unless of course you have decided that if nobody else is bothering why should you?

The evidence for cross immunity with other human coronaviruses is slim - in fact if anything the evidence is that there isn't any (eg Pasteur institute study this summer). Disappointed to see bad science being spread here.
Mistigri
At the moment all we have on COVID is noise and very little light
a single study is meaningless until backed up
COVID is just another Coronavirus
and the extraordinary claim that it will not act like the others
will need extraordinary evidence to back it up
which will take time

At the moment we have evidence that 75% of people with it have no physical symptoms at all (ONS)
and the economy and civil liberties being destroyed
with no tangible benefits

Emily
I wear a mask whenever I'm in a shop or a crowded place.
Cool with that
but I will NOT make my mother live like a hermit to protect her
as its not protecting her
its killing her soul

To lighten the mood, a genetics joke about the second wave of covid courtesy of Dr Caroline Bartman:

How it started:
AUG

How it’s going:
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

The evidence on cross reactivity is mixed, I'm not convinced either way yet. Regardless, the bad cold that loads of people had in December probably wasn't solely due to another coronavirus, as they only cause about 20% of colds. It's far more likely it was a mix of viruses.

I know you're angry about all this LQ. It sucks. I don't know what the answers are. We do know a metric fuck tonne more about this virus now than we did in the spring, and we even have some effective treatments, but there are questions about immunity that simply can't be answered yet because not enough time has passed.

To lighten the mood, a genetics joke about the second wave of covid courtesy of Dr Caroline Bartman

MShip I hope neither of you are giving up the day job

Unfortunately, this does not seem to be just a bad joke

The Express & others are reporting this is his latest scheme - the BXP personal finance newsletter:

Do you get NewBrixittania snake oil with it?

Panicking No 10 dumps Donald Trump and woos Joe Biden

What's another U-turn between friends ?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/panicking-no-10-dumps-donald-trump-and-woos-joe-biden-llg7llg8c

Ministers have been told to forge links with the White House frontrunner Joe Biden after “writing off” Donald Trump’s chances of re-election,
amid fears that the UK could be left out in the cold if the former vice-president wins.

Boris Johnson has been warned that Trumpmp_ is on course for a landslide defeat*
with his Democratic opponents set to land a historic “triple whammy” by seizing control of the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
......
But a senior Tory told the Sunday Times: 'They're writing off Trump in No 10 now.'

< That's torn it: If No10 think Trump will lose .... they've a consistent record of being wrong about everything >

@BigChocFrenzy

MShip I hope neither of you are giving up the day job

I'm certainly not!

I think you can take the #10 sucking up to Biden news as evidence that it's finally sunk in to their thick skulls that Trump isn't looking like such a hot prospect.

Ps I'm so glad I've stayed out of the USA election news this time, to the extent that my phone (new since 2016) does not know to capitalize Trump, and auto corrects Biden to Boden!

Hey, I thought it was a funny joke

I think you can take the #10 sucking up to Biden news as evidence that it's finally sunk in to their thick skulls that Trump isn't looking like such a hot prospect.

Given Biden has already said there will be no trade deal if they mess with the NI Protocol, I wonder will they rethink the IMB? Or are they not capable of joining those dots?