Westminstenders: Dear Santa for Christmas I'd like...

[RedToothBrush]

The ERG to be the grinch that stole the Tory Party Christmas who ultimately get what they deserve.

To remain in the EU

Donald Trump's impeachment

For politics to be boring again

A trex toy for my son

Yes that’s how I understand it 2bees, although Jeremy Corbyn could still bring vote of no confidence in the government I believe.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Remember tho it's a secret ballot - people can say whatever they like on here - doesn't decide for good what they will do in a ballot later

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
PM will fight this today as hard as poss - No 10 strategy: 1. say if she's forced out, Parliament will take control of Brexit which means it will be softer than under her 2. a leadership contest would mean whoever was next would have to extend article 50 because of delay but...

May herself has just caused delay by delaying the meaningful vote by weeks, and there's dispute over how long a leadership contest might actually take - some MP s believe it could happen in a couple of weeks, doesn't have to take forever

Robert Kimbell @ redhotsquirrel
Cleverly and Hunt back May.

I suspect most if the Cabinet will publicly back her.

But they could turn against her in a secret ballot.

It's about not looking disloyal to potential MPs voting for a new leader...

But surely if they split then they lose the shaky majority and we go into general election?

Don’t understand this if she wins the first vote then doesn’t she get to stay for the next 12 months ? Which would at least stop a no deal brext supporter getting in?

I believe that is so, in which case I think she'd get her WA through, and the Brexit circus continues. Lose - crash out a certainty I would think and then, it's anyone's guess what would happen. Some MPs might grow up and decide that they will do the job they were elected for! Pigs might fly.

BTW shouldn't Brussels sprouts be renamed Independence sprouts?

Placemat king
Thanks red

This week is getting too hectic to follow. And its only 8:15 on Wednesday

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Quite a lot of cards seem to be falling in Theresa May’s favour
-super fast vote rather than time to allow worries to grow
-TM addressing 1922 straight before vote
- No10 very much appeared to know last night tho they deny this

Will some in brexit camp question 1922’s approach?

Still early days. This might not last long.

they lose the shaky majority and we go into general election?

Not necessarily, minority governments can stagger on, although I am not sure what happens now with Fixed Term Parliaments.

But surely if they split then they lose the shaky majority and we go into general election?

The suggestion is if she wins, the DUP will stop supporting the Tories anyway!

The ERG seem to think they will walk a leadership contest with the candidate of their choice. It was bad enough having BoJo in the FO let alone PM. And if JRM gets chancellor i will cry, given his feelings towards benefits claimants.

I found myself agreeing with Ed Vaisey on Today this morning. What a clusterfuck!

Brandon Lewis @ brandonlewis
I fully back our Prime Minister. We have the right Leader of our Party, we have a duty to deliver for our country & I hope all my colleagues will join me & support @theresa_may to deliver for UK.

James Cleverly @ jamescleverly
I fully back our Prime Minister. We have the right Leader of our Party, we have a duty to deliver for our country & I hope all my colleagues will join me & support @theresa_may to deliver for UK.

May to give statement outside no 10 shortly. She was told last night and wanted Brady to announce ASAP.

TM is going to make a statement outside number 10 in 10 mins

James Plumb @ jamesrplumb
What might be on the mind of many Tory MPs is that if Theresa May survives confidence vote, there is the prospect of the party fighting another General Election, with her as leader. Not sure if that would be winnable with her in charge.

BTW it's CCHQ Christmas Party tonight. I'm sure that'll be a barrel of laughs.

Rory Stewart @ rorystewartuk
@theresa_may continues to work with immense integrity to avoid the polarising dangers of no-deal/no-Brexit. And I will of course be voting for her tonight.

Well it wouldn't be right if Rory wasn't doing his full on loyal puppy routine.

Alan Sugar making a lot of sense on GMB. How many of those bloody MPs have read that 500+ Deal document?

I don't like May and I don't like her deal, of course I'd rather remain, but her deal is better than anything else that involves leaving. And I hate hate hate the ERG. So I hope she faces them down and wins. And that they then fuck off to UKIP or the further depths of wherever they deserve to be.

I'm with you on this @borntobequiet

DUP won't support TM I agree. It makes no difference if she wins the vote. Next step would be Labour tabling No Confidence and triggering GE with support from SNP/Green/DUP/LibDem/Plaid.

I see no logic to Tory Remainers backing TM. It just runs the clock down further which narrows the options for hurtling towards the cliff.

TheFairyAstronaut Oh you remainers and your burgundy passports,

PMK

I have surgery on my face today so I'm going to be missing a lot until later, if Corbyn has any sense (starting to question whether he has) he could now table the vote of no confidence in the government just to add a little more fuel to the fire, an exciting day and please try not to fill this thread up before I get back I dont want 40 pages to catch up on lol

Sajid Javid @ sajidjavid
The last thing our country needs right now is a Conservative Party leadership election. Will be seen as self-indulgent and wrong. PM has my full support and is best person to ensure we leave EU on 29 March

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
Looks like the PM is using time as a weapon.

Eurosceptics were last night planning for a vote next week.

Instead Graham Brady confirms she wanted it done and dusted tonight.

Will Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dom Raab other contenders now say publicly it’s time for her to go?

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
Strongest arguments on each side:

Pro Theresa May: The Parliamentary numbers don’t change thru a change of leader - so you’re still stuck

Anti Theresa May: DUP will never support her deal so the government doesn’t have a working majority

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Justice Secretary David Gauke says Brexit would have to be delayed by up to 6 months if Theresa May loses tonight. #r4today

Thanks RaTB

In that case I wish that

1. She wins the CV
2. Meaningful vote returns to parliament
3. It gets voted down. By opposition and disgruntled DUP plus anyone else as before.
4. TM realises PV is the only option

5.Then what?

Unless Labour changes to supporting the Withdrawal Agreement TM needs ERG votes to get it through. She won't get them even if she wins today's vote imho. They will just keep blocking everything till 29 March unless Labour etc pull the trigger on a GE.