Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

BigChoc - definitely not.

I'm not convinced the Scots are going to vote Tory to keep the union. Maybe I'm wrong but as far as I can see the Tories are still massively impopular. The rape clause petition has been signed in Scotland, not in rUK, and Ruth Davidson appears more popular south of the border than up in Scotland. 1 MP they have now. I think the union is fucked tbh. But I wil vote yes, so I might have rose tinted glasses.

Brexit means the end of 2 party politics in this country
Labour and cons will split
Hopefully ukip will implode
Lib dems may benefit from above

I really hope so. FPTP does not serve this country well at all.

What the UK public - and I fear UK govt too - don't realise is that attention here is focused on the forthcoming German GE.
Similar preoccupation in France, Misti ?

Very much so. Nailbiter election in less than 5 days.

People here look a bit sorry for you when they realise you are British.

Boys3
Well said! Something practical that we can all do in our own personal situations....I've started today by insisting my just turned 18 year old registered to vote, rather than let her get away with "I'll do later......" as per normal nagging.

Yes that's what I've experienced - pity like someone has died. And everyone is really nice to you. Which makes one realise how far up shit creek we really are.

Ds1 registered ages ago when he had just turned 18

He is very politically minded...and a bit excited now he can vote

Ironically the election is on the same day as his government and politics A level

Corbyn's just tweeted that over 2500 people have joined the Labour Party today.

The Lib Dems tweeting that over 5000 have joined their party today.

No idea about the implications of this but the lib dem's have got twice as many new supporters from today's numbers.

^Is there any evidence that TM is, by nature, a soft Brexiteer?
My perception is that, in an Erdogan style democracy, she would Tally Ho to the Brexit cliff.^

None that I've seen. But there have been murmurings and leaks suggesting that the cabinet are belatedly waking up to the self harm of hard Brexit. Is she going to tally ho and ditch the single market and customs union or attempt to pull a soft Brexit rabbit from a hard Brexit hat? She may fudge it and lodge us on a long temporary deal and then resign.

Tomorrow's Daily Mail. We've got seven weeks of this to come.

Fucking hell!!

What the fuck is wrong with them

She looks a bit insane in that photo

I am going to have nightmares

Could they not have found a nice photo

She does have some

I have seen them

twitter.com/schafersam/status/854271857901621248

This is special. The best election leaflet I've seen so far this year.

Amber Rudd on Newsnight now using term like soft Brexit and don't know what kind of deal etc. She did campaign hard for Remain. Despite her playing to gallery announcements about lists etc, she's not dumb - she won't have had a conversion to Leave.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-u-k-snap-election-is-riskier-than-it-seems/?ex_cid=538twitter
The U.K. Snap Election Is Riskier Than It Seems
Theresa May’s conservatives are probably headed to a big win, but polls in the U.K. are terrible.

Says American Pollster who got the US election completely wrong.

Jim Acosta‏*@Acosta*

WH confirms UK PM May called POTUS about plans for special election in June: "President Trump wished the British people the best of luck"

That's Trump who just congratulated Erdogan.

I thought she came across as shockingly dumb in that interview, Edith. She just couldn't wait to say that TM had told her about the election before the rest of the cabinet - she was all but wearing a BFF necklace on the strength of it. Then she just came out with vacuous soundbites about no such thing as hard/soft Brexit, it was going to be a "sensible Brexit" . She's got a not very convincing majority in a seat that is rapidly filling up with disgruntled London diaspora (Londoners don't generally vote Tory except, sadly, in my constituency).

You mean Amber Rudd in a very high Remain Constituency? I wonder why she talks about soft brexit a lot....

She will have been told before others for a reason: she has a seat which is more vulnerable than a lot of other Cabinet Ministers. I suspect it has the word 'TARGET' marked somewhere.

Trump hasn't visited Erdogan yet. TM has. All buddies.
I do not see her secretly going for soft brexit, I think that is hopeful thinking. She committed, or converted, but she is not half hearted.

Hopes and Delusions from Brexitasia

Der Spiegel is typical of the opinion in Germany:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-eu-negotiations-set-for-disappointment-a-1141119.html

"The EU isn't setting out to punish Britain for leaving the bloc.
But it is almost certain that the ultimate deal will be portrayed as such by Brexiteers.
The reason is the completely unrealistic expectations harbored by the British."

They report that Brexit Secretary David Davis said :
"the United Kingdom wanted to have "the exact same benefits" after its departure as it did before."

Corbyn get slated too:
"If the UK isn't as well positioned with the EU on trade and customs as it was before Brexit, his party won't approve the Brexit deal, he told parliament"

If Corbyn means this seriously ...
it suggests that he has lost touch with reality."
< well, at least Germany and the UK agree on something >

I stepped away from the internet today. Did anything happen while I was gone?

Nope nothing eeeeeww

Its been really quiet

There may have been an argument about baby names...but thats about it

Nothing much, just some new cat videos on YouTube.