Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

The thing that strikes me most about all this is the need for TM to negotiate a trade agreement whilst negotiating the exit agreement. Her fans are apparently adamant this can happen. If I were the EU I'd be and saying 'you can't even sort your own house out'.

Her speech also smacked of someone who has no understanding of political compromise.

This may be a good tactic at home, but I can't see that within the EU27.

bigchoc misti etc, how's it looking out there?

Any Irish Mumsnetters around ?
There are 18 NI seats.
In the 2015 GE, the DUP+UUP total was 10 seats, Sinn Fein + SDLP had 7 seats, 1 seat alliance.

Is the balance unionists vs republicans / nationalists likely to change ?

Better to get a GE done now so they have 5 years in power than have one when everyone can see the mess they have made of things.

But then, if Brexit is the disaster that many think it will be, it will still be one on 2022, and the responsibility will belong to the Tories only. They won't be able to whine about Labour/LibDems/SNP.

The EU has already said that a GE won't change their negotiating position. Some people in the EU think that it may be easier to get a sensible approach to negotiations if May has a bigger majority and is less in hock to her loony wing.

I honestly don't think most people in France care very much about a bit of unnecessary political grandstanding happening at a safe distance on the other side of the channel. We have a nail biting presidential election of our own to worry about, with four candidates within the error margin of polling.

I can't speak for other EU countries, but I'd be surprised if this merited more than passing attention.

(The above was for hashi, sorry)

Thank misti. Though it leads to the $64m of - is that because they've all had a more realistic view of our government's lunacy inadequacy

Seeing Twitter explode on Farron and his 2015 interview on his lack of admitted views on gay sex I'm guessing he's a real threat too at the moment. Especially as the worst he's done voting wise is abstain when TM has actively voted against any LGBT issue in house. Interesting indeed.

Hashi I'm afraid that in Germany the Uk is only mentioned now as a joke
Opinion about the Uk public and its politicians - intelligence, sanity and (for want of a better word) moral fibre - has sunk massively.

What the UK public - and I fear UK govt too - don't realise is that attention here is focused on the forthcoming German GE.
Similar preoccupation in France, Misti ?

Any spare attention is reserved for Syria, Turkey, refugees, Russia, Trump ....

Politicians here have no time or enthusiasm to dig the Uk out of its self-dug Brexit hole.
A special cake deal is regarded as fantasy
I think politicians are waiting for the Uk govt to realise this before they bother seriously engaging - and only after the German GE.
They are basically leaving it up to Michel Barnier, since everyone else is busy.

Brexit is the overwhelming issue in the UK, but people need to realise it isn't in the EU

At a guess, I would suspect that Farron personally doesn't agree with gay sex, but things like Gay Marriage have passed into law, so the wisest thing is to stay stumm. I think quite a lot of practicing Christians take the same stance.

Interesting points on demograhics Red - sorry to be several hours behind the curve on this having only just red through the thread.

Not sure I concur with

Also how does that work for students? May / June is exam time. The first week in June was the last week of my exams so I wonder if there will be some students registered in the 'wrong' place at the wrong time.

on the contrary students would seem to offer an opportunity as they can register both at their home address and term time address. Obviously for a GE or referendum can only vote in one not both, whereas if council elections being held both at home and in Uni town can quite legally have a vote in each place.

So students, if bright enough to get a place at Uni, should be able to master registering and, if needed, getting a postal vote. And then voting in whichever constituency, home or uni, they can have the potentially greatest impact.

However if the quite significant percentage of 18-24s, and indeed those under 40/45 continue to not bother voting then it looks like it'll just be more of the same. That makes me both and I guess all we can do is our utmost to encourage all those around us, our contacts and networks to make sure they actually do vote.

So students, if bright enough to get a place at Uni, should be able to master registering and, if needed, getting a postal vote. And then voting in whichever constituency, home or uni, they can have the potentially greatest impact.

So it's up to the political parties to stress this and make sure that they register!

What about Scotland ?

With a fluke 56 out of 59 seats, one would expect the SNP seat total to go down, even if their vote share holds up.
It depends how the unionist vote splits

The Tory Party and policies are still very unpopular in Scotland, BUT recent polls show Scottish voters would prefer even May as PM rather than Corbyn !

So, Unionist Leavers : your best tactics against the SNP and for Brexit are ... to Vote Tory !
< waves to howabout >

peregrina he has said his christian views are his own and he won't inflict them on anyone else. Which I took as he doesn't agree with it, but he has a job to do. And tbh I have more respect for politicians that say things like that than those who spout a lot of waffle.

bigchoc thanks to you too. I know they aren't all as epicly consumed by it as we are, but I more wondered if it was noted at all. I suppose in a look at those twats way

Maria I don't think TMay actually gives a damn about Brexit / Remain.
Her priorities are:
1-99) Her career
100) The Tory Party

Much as I despise May, becoming PM is a great personal achievement

• particularly after showing her incompetence as home secretary

Not so great for the rest of us:
stuck with a PM who got the job because she wasn't as laughably inept as the other candidates

Like most over-promoted managers, she'll hang on to her job like grim death.

boys A much larger proportion of 18-24s voted in the referendum and certainly as far as students are concerned the last months have been a wake up call. Suddenly politics, feminism etc are cool. Just been with a group of young people who are planning to get back here on 8 June, even if on a day trip to vote for a 70 year old Libdem.......

So it's up to the political parties to stress this and make sure that they register!

That I think is only a small, and quite probably largely ineffectual part of it, imho

Anyone contributing to and or just reading this thread - let any family members, friends, long lost third cousins twice removed who knows anyone at Uni could let them know, text, skype, facebook, an amusing meme even. Student networks need to promote this. And the message keeps needing to be repeated until it sinks in.. Sorry bit of a hobby horse of mine but we all need to step up and take some responsibility on this. If the June 2016 referendum has taught us anything its that passive acceptance and hoping someone else will pick up the reins allowing us to all live happily ever after just don't work.

Rant over.

Not been on these since about thread 6 but just following along again. WTF is happening to my country?

he [Farron] has said his christian views are his own and he won't inflict them on anyone else.

I wish Theresa May would take a leaf out of his book. I am sick and tired of her parading her religion, when she seems to have a different Bible to the one I know. Where is her support for the poor, the sick, the stranger in her midst? She reminds me of the Scribes and Pharisees, and Jesus strongly condemned them.

"as far as students are concerned the last months have been a wake up call.^ Let us hope so. Not having a dig at you what I think our views on this are probably quite similar :)

What an unproductive day today. How is anyone expected to get any work done these days?

Placemarking to catch up.

swedish Are you in the cabinet by any chance ?

Fwiw Farron's voting record on gay rights is 73% positive. Theresa May's score is 58%, Boris Johnson 65%, Phillip Hammond 43%, Liam Fox a lousy 24% and David Davis a dismal 16%.

www.publicwhip.org.uk/mp.php?mpn=Tim_Farron&mpc=Westmorland_and_Lonsdale&house=commons