Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Thanks Bigchoc I wasn't clear about EU citizens' voting rights.
Still 16 million Remainers though. And all those recently turned 18. If my DS and his peers are anything to go by, wild horses wouldn't make them vote Tory. Just got to persuade them all to actually vote!

Struth is a good deal more popular with the 55% than she is with the minority pro Indy 45%. I would be gobsmacked if she was parachuted into an English seat. Makes much more sense for her to claim the credit for regaining 2+ Tory seats in Scotland and building from there. She's still young and would be better served going to Westminster with a Scottish seat and a posse of Scottish Tory MPs in 5 years time rather than getting lost in a sea of high profile Tory women - wouldn't rate Liz Truss' chances of staying in Cabinet though.

BigChoc You can get data on this from the British Election Study.

Rush to select candidates in this election means Cons & Lab HQs claim huge powers

Lots is being made about how Labour HQ are making a hash of the election so far. Not so much about Tory HQ. They have already relaxed the standard of selection process because they didn't have enough candidates so they can rush them through. This leaves them at risk of standing someone with a twitter feed as good as Gareth Snell's. And there is lots of talk of local Conservative Party members being disgruntled about who is shortlisted for them and opposed on them.

Guido Fawkes is also reporting this morning that they sent a conference call pin number to their election contacts book: their referendum one which includes Lab and LDs.

It certainly doesn't smack of a well oiled machine.

There is a reason May is wanting a campaign stage managed to the point of control freaky. If HQ are struggling with the wider picture and local parties are annoyed she's not going to want public. Plus she really isn't going to want to have to deal with swivel eyed loons in front of camera. They'll make Brown's Gillian Duffy look tame. How would May tackle that? She's not good at that kind of stuff at the best of times.

I mean with all those Kippers defecting to the Conservatives there is the danger of getting one of those like this one standing in Scotland

(This is doing the rounds on twitter. Note the last paragraph about bring back the guillotine).

I can't work out which group she's aiming for, something to alienate everyone!

It is special even by UKIP standards.

She seems quite green; she likes community gardens and not golf courses. And she likes horses, dolphins and whales.

Humans not so much. Though, she doesn't attack straight young healthy men.

Bigchoc this gives some indication of the scale of the issue re who voted in Indyref.

eprints.lse.ac.uk/63345/1/democraticaudit.com-Scots%20living%20overseas%20or%20elsewhere%20in%20the%20UK%20should%20have%20been%20given%20the%20right%20to%20vote%20in%20the%20independ.pdf

I would haven't seen any hard stats on how rUK voted in Indyref1 and I would be very sceptical about anything based on polling as there was a significant shy No vote, which is why the poll predictions were wrong - the prediction was narrow Yes but the actual was 55% No.

I don't think we ever had the guillotine in the UK - too French.
Apart from those feasome machines you used to get in schools, with a big arm which swung down.

This is an article from the Times by Matthew Paris:
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0ba87434-26a8-11e7-bc20-132b509ff5ce
Tories’ drift to the right may be unstoppable
This election will see the triumph of a more aggressive, nationalistic party — and it’s not clear the PM will resist it

Someone on twitter has very kindly copied this extract. He's a Tory Party member not impressed by what's going on and says he's only staying out of tribal loyalty. He comments that no one under 30 is joining - unless they are a bigot. And no one 'mildly middle of the road' is joining either.

Hester EU citizens are allowed to vote in each others' countries for EU elections, but not for GEs

With the exception of Irish people resident in UK and UK citizens resident in Ireland. They get a vote in the GE of their country of residence.

I a way, I see Matthew Paris's comments as hopeful - the current Tory party is not attracting young people. The young will still be around in 20 - 30 years and in a position to rebuild a broken society. May, Redwood and Co are not even forced to be alive then.

www.economist.com/news/britain/21721216-theresa-may-needs-cushion-moderate-mps-dilute-influence-ultra-brexiteers-tories?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/oneofustorieselectedinjunewillnotcausetheresamaymuchgrief
One of us?
Tories elected in June will not cause Theresa May much grief
Theresa May needs a cushion of moderate MPs to dilute the influence of ultra-Brexiteers

The Economist on a similar subject.

Also seen this:
Stephanie‏@_stephanieellen
Normally I don't discuss my politics / my vote. But both June 2016 and the Conservative shift since has got me fired up and unafraid
Prior to this election, I've always voted for the Conservatives. Shy Tory, Cameronette - call it what you like. But I can't do this anymore
Two big reasons: 1. My (hometown) MP @ben4bath shamefully went against the city, and has supported council policies which seek to ruin it
2. The party I've always voted for has morphed into an autocratic, uncaring, one-purpose machine that seeks to 'crush the saboteurs'
'Saboteurs' like me, who differ from their 'bountiful Brexit' line and think that enabling all to succeed is a social and moral good; a duty
In short - the Cons have left me. My politics have never wavered. I'm the same voter as usual, @Conservatives don't represent me anymore.
As I'm in the South West, pro-EU, progressive, pro-free thought and pro-NHS: I'm swinging this election. If the @LibDems will have me...

Its definitely part of a trend. To what extent it is happening we don't know. What is worth noting about this group is they called themselves 'shy tories' and don't like to talk about politics publically.

Just how much are this group going to switch? If they are the ones that were difficult for pollsters to find in 2015, are they going to be any easier two years later.

www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/michelle-thomson-will-step-down-as-an-mp-after-the-snp?utm_term=.lakRzLrkn#.wc4v94JpM
Michelle Thomson Will Step Down As An MP After The SNP Ruled She Can't Stand For Them

Edinburgh West. Previously LD until 2015.

I a way, I see Matthew Paris's comments as hopeful - the current Tory party is not attracting young people. The young will still be around in 20 - 30 years and in a position to rebuild a broken society. May, Redwood and Co are not even forced to be alive then.

I don't want my dd to grow up having to rebuild a society we screwed up for her. We should be leaving the young with a better world, not a shitty mess we hope they will sort out in time for my retirement. It's depressing we are at a point where we even have to think like this

My hope is that if there is a real effort to get the 18-35 vote out in June we can at least take the edge off and get some opposition in. I hope we don't have hit rock bottom before that happens.

"Garry Heath, a member of the Wycombe Conservative Association, wrote on the ConservativeHome blog that the Tories should “purge our party and deselect the Remainers”."
From that Economist article.

Steve Baker's henchmen again.

High Wycombe seems to be alt right central.

I find myself agreeing with a lot of Matthew Paris says these days
17 year old me is horrified

If they deselect the Remainers, they ditch Theresa May, Philip Hammond, Justine Greening, Amber Rudd, Jeremy Hunt, and Liz Truss.

I suppose we can live in hope...

This Twitter thread from Helen Lewis has some thoughts about some of the voter behaviour that could shift the results. I was talking to my dad about turnout and he is hoping the remainer vote will be more motivated to turn up as the leave conservative voters will assume a win. I can certainly see voter fatigue setting in after we have local elections early may. I am not sure he is right though and hope it doesn't end up being the other way and the remain stay at home consumed with despair.

I don't want my dd to grow up having to rebuild a society we screwed up for her.

True - so I am doing what I can now.

Re the Tories selection process - since May hasn't given them time to organise this properly, they are likely to get the swivelled eyed loons. I think Remainers won't feel at home in her Government. It could backfire on her spectacularly - she does need to remember that she hasn't been appointed PM by Divine right.

If they deselect the Remainers, they ditch Theresa May,

There is always a lot of talk about Corbyn being crap during the ref campaigning and not supporting remain strongly enough, but May was amazingly quite if I recall. I don't see her as a remainer at all.

*quiet

Ruth can't go to Westminster with a Scottish seat if she has aspirations to be PM. EVEL put a stop to that - in practice if not explicitly .

Now if a proper federal structure were set up with Westminster being the body governing UK only matters and a separate English parliament, then just possibly Scottish based MPs would get a look in again. But while English MPs can vote on everything (including the Scotland Act ) and Scottish MPs can't, there is a fundamental imbalance.

But I don't see that happening

Helen Lewis is spot on.

A HUGE swing to the Conservatives relies - in part - on the UKIP vote collapsing and going to them. And this being as big as, or bigger, than the number of voters they loose to the LDs.

Will that happen? Which group are more likely to turn out? The disaffected Tory or the newly converted kippers? If its not, things could turn out to be a lot less successful than they hope for.

Kippers are notorious for not turning out for by-elections as it is though. And there is this curious group who voted LD in 2010 and kipper in 2015. There was this element of a protest vote against the status quo. You also have 2015 kippers who were previously Labour, who despite all the chances will not go blue unless hell freezes over.

It is NOT all about Labour.

There is a lot of expectation management going on here. Note the stories coming out about how its not a forgone conclusion that May will win. Some of these from Senior Tories.

If turnout is low, strange things CAN happen. This is what needs to be drilled into anyone feeling its pointless to vote in any way against the Conservatives.

Where's Boris? Not a murmur from him. Checked his twitter and he wished the queen a happy birthday and then nothing? We all know he is a scheming opportunist. Is there any chance he could break ranks. He has to put some distance between himself and May's plans if he wants to rush to the rescue when they go wrong.

order-order.com/2017/04/22/david-miliband-phoning-around-veteran-labour-mps/
David Miliband Phoning Around Veteran Labour MPs

In the last 48 hours David Miliband has privately contacted at least one veteran moderate MP to ask if they might step down andgrease his path back to parliament. The impression from one very senior Labour MP isthat David hasdecided not to return at this election.He has until noon on Sunday to put in an application for a “safe” seat…

Raises an eyebrow