Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Unfortunately, my politically motivated ds, who will be voting in just over 2 weeks in the council elections (and is currently working out the complexity of strategic voting in an STV system ), won't be allowed to vote in the GE. He's understandably peeved.

It may however mean in the long run that he never gets to vote in a UK GE, which he would be happy about!

In terms of the student vote, early June is slightly less terrible timing than the Referendum. By the time that happened lots of students had already left the accommodation they were registered at and wouldn't have reregistered yet. There were 3 polling cards sent to DS house for people that had already gone home / left the country etc last year. I'm hoping this election may be in time to catch them before leaving.

She just couldn't wait to say that TM had told her about the election before the rest of the cabinet - she was all but wearing a BFF necklace on the strength of it

Well, yes, true. But I still doubt she, personally, will be a Leaver now.

nancy thanks for that, has helped me compile an argument very easily as to why my MP is an MP Pig

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
According to White House Theresa May has called a "Special Election". How does this differ from an election? Asking for British democracy.

Answers on a postcard to the Electoral Commission and CPS.

A "special election" in the US is the equivalent of our by elections.

Even then, they've not got it right though.

The DUP are trying to make this election all about the union, not Brexit. Nigel Dodds came out with 'to assert our power the union'.

In 2015, there were 4 electoral pacts between the 2 main Unionist parties. The DUP and UUP only fielded one candidate between them in 4 constituencies rather than splitting the unionist vote.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Only UUP ran and succeeded in taking the seat from Sinn Féin.

Newry and Armagh: Only UUP ran but Sinn Féin still took the seat.

East Belfast: Only DUP ran and took the seat from the APNI (Alliance).

North Belfast: Only DUP stood to retain seat against Sinn Féin

The aim according to Peter Robinson (leader of DUP before Foster) was to "reduce the number of non-unionists returned" to Westminster."
"UUP leader Mike Nesbitt said their aim was to "get the pro-union vote out" in May's general election."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-31930496

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/northern_ireland

It is quite strategic. This is FPTP instead of pr, of course.

The Nationalist parties didn't do any pacts in 2015, so the nationalist vote is being split. I'm not so sure SDLP voters would transfer to a Sinn Féin candidate so easily in any event.

The only 'other' MP in NI is Sylvia Hermon (widow of late chief constable of RUC, John Hermon). She was in UUP until it formed an alliance with the Conservative Party and left in 2010 to become an Independent.

The DUP are still very keen on the Unionist cooperation model. This is from DUPper Jeffery Donaldson wrt the assembly, but I imagine they want it for the General Election too.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-in-unionist-election-pact-bid-urging-swann-to-do-deal-to-maximise-seats-35608577.html

Noises about a United Ireland from Sinn Féin, but also NI remain Brexit vote. And parties in NI fighting a general election and that impact on fragile Stormont talks.

I don't know whether to vote Labour or LD.

Labour deserve the biggest kicking out into the Atlantic.

From a purely political POV I'd vote LD.

But, going on previous elections LD have no chance in my constituency, so a vote against the Tories would have to be Labour to have a chance of ousting my supposedly Remain Tory MP.

I can't vote for Corbyn, I'd vote for Starmer or Benn theoretically if they replaced him after the election but what if the barnacle still refuses to go?

I'd hate the anti Tory vote to be split so that we don't manage to oust our MP.

Answers on a postcard.

With all the excitement today, I can't remember if this has been posted already so much going on on Twitter, Facebook and MN for some reason

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_58f47aefe4b0da2ff8619ddb?ncid=engmodushpmg00000003

Brexiters getting upset that "Brexit means Brexit" has consequences - and not positive ones for the UK!

I saw that though not on here, don't know if it was posted here.

To be fair it's based on Express readers so par for the course.

I don't see how I can get any work down when there is so much news ATM.

No evidence of a softer approach to Brexit from May herself.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaura
Sources say Hammond and Davis and both been urging early elex fora while + PM told them together on Monday she was going ahead

Now i think Davis is a committed leaver. Is he a committed ultra leaver? I'm not thoroughly convinced. Not sure what it is that's makes me doubt it.

Hammond certainly doesn't seem to be an ultra.

Brexit at any cost from these two? That's what i can't get past. May yes. Other Cabinet Ministers yes. These two?

I might be wrong but it just doesn't fit in my mind.

I don't think DD has really looked into it
Hammond I think is a pragmatist, he wants what's best for the UK but that also means economically so won't sit with the uber leavers.

Fuck me the DFail picture and headline is sinister

The 'enemies of the people' front page was clearly just the start, and now they're feeling even more emboldened. All Brexit dissenters will be seen as the enemy.

Cheering times for the UK.

I'm an enemy of the people now, best give up my job looking after disabled children, which I've done for the past 20 years, probably won't pass the DBS check

I thought that May's husband was a staunch Remainer? I thought also that she listened to what he said?

I thought that May's husband was a staunch Remainer? I thought also that she listened to what he said?
Some people are going to be shocked that a woman can think for herself. I mean it's shitty thinking so far, but apparently her own

Yes, he is, allegedly. And she decided whilst on holiday. She claims. I do think she looks very distressed these days. At the start of her leadership she looked almost star-struck when meeting Merkel et al. Now she looks anxious and pained.

Or she's just listening to the men in her party instead

Which polls to believe ? [scratches head]

• Most predict a big Tory win, overall 70-120 majority, plus Labour humiliation.
• Opinium is an outlier predicting only a slightly increased majority. They always have a lower Tory vote - are they badly wrong, or the only one to get it right ?

Variation too with the smaller parties.
The Liberals especially have a wide range of predictions, e.g. just tonight I've seen 2 totally different scenarios:

1) Predictions based on March polls and 2015 GE
As attached bar chart:

• Liberals vote share up, but remain on 8 seats
• SNP retain their 56 seats < that would actually be a huge achievement >

2) Secret Tory Polls: Tories could lose up to 30 seats to Lib* Dem*s

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-polling-votes-mps-elections-lose-to-liberal-democrat-labour-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-lynton-a7669211.html

"Private polling by the party has found their former coalition partners could be on track to regain all the 27 seats they lost in 2015 – including all their gains in south London and most of the former Lib Dem strongholds of Cornwall and Devon."

Lynton Crosby had the joy of informing May
She still decided to call a GE mainly because polls also showed whatever happens wrt the Liberals ....

Tories will SLAUGHTER Labour in many more seats

I don't know which way I'm going to vote yet - never been in that position in a GE before as I've always voted Labour - and I must be quite typical. How can the polls call this one accurately?

Labour voters and Tory Remainers - their votes are up for grabs.

This must be supremely unpredictable despite the polls.

I.e. the opinion polls indicating large Tory lead.

All the Tory voters I know that I've spoken to are not voting Tory.

Timmy Farren..."Go back to your constituencies....and prepare for GOVERNMENT!!!"

Front pages are disgusting. Your press is a joke.

It will be interesting how polling changes now that people have a deadline - ie they're not being asked about a theoretical election in two years, but about voting now. As others have said a lot of business tory types (like a lot of my colleagues) seem to be considering a LD vote.

There is not much I can do to get out the vote, but I'm going to encourage the Britons I know here I'm France to register and organise a proxy vote (as we know from the referendum that postal voting in the UK essentially disenfranchises people).

Horrified by the brass beck of the Tories. Strike whilst the opposition is at its lowest, before Brexit realities become apparent to all and within such a short timescale so as to disadvantage the other parties. I expect they've been planning this for months (unlike having a plan for Brexit). I think we need more time and I hope (forlornly I imagine) that parliament will push it back. 50 days is a disgrace to our democracy, an ambush. Fuming! Another manifesto pledge chucked out of the window and sneakily sidestepping the electoral fraud issue.
[Teaandtoilet]

THIS^^