Does anyone else think they know what the result will be?

[WalrusGumboot]

Just a little theory. I think Brexit will emerge victorious. My theory is that no-one predicted the Conservatives would win the general election last year but they did (despite polls and lots of support for the opposition on social media).

I think many people voted for them in order to get the referendum (Conservatives the only party to promise this in their manifesto) and why would you want a referendum unless you want to leave?

Add to that all the UKIP voters and others as well, and I think the majority of British voters will vote Leave.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on which way it will go?

Limer
Oooooh good idea Rorty I'm going to do that, no champagne but I've got prosecco

Are we having a live results thread on the night of the 23rd?

As long as its bubbly

I hope so - I don't see us getting much sleep that night, do you?

There's another poll out today, again giving leave a 6 pt lead. This one is a phone poll from Ipsos/ Mori.
I want leave but I really think that there will be a swing to the status quo at the last minute.
I saw this on wikipedia. Its a referendum about sovereignty in Quebec. The equivalent of the leave side were ahead in all the polls for the last fortnight, but the "remain" equivalent won by a whisker on the day because the news stories about how leave were ahead prompted the normally passive voters to turn out to vote.
I think this is what will happen this time (unless Juncker intervenes next week as is rumoured today - then leave WILL win!)

Yes Limer - they nearly all read the Guardian, listen to radio 4 but no jazz fans - mainly folk rock and classical.

I hope so - I don't see us getting much sleep that night, do you? My plan is to go to bed shortly after the final exit poll at 10pm, then get up around 4am when the counts will be coming in thick and fast.

She has died. She has two little children. Its awful. It makes everything seem very unimportant.

Counters are supposed to sign in at 9:45pm, keep going until they finish (lots of friends are counters). I presume results announced when verified.

Var123 - The man shouted "Britain First" according to reports.
There's the referendum turning point right there - who wants to be associated with him?!

I'm sorry but I find that completely wrong and offensive, I want to leave but under no circumstances should anyone be to use your phrase associated with him.

I still want to leave

I agree JelliedEels. That is an awful thing to say Var and I hope you now realise that.

Such a terrible thing to happen. Her poor family

Michael Gove got a very unnervingly enthusiastic clap on his debate last night- his brexit arguments are clearly winning people over. I think I've gone from a state of brexitential crisis to a state of brexitential panic- I'm seriously losing sleep over this! Am reminding myself that statistically, referendums usually uphold the status quo.

I don't think any reasoned person would associate the man with severe mental health problems who shot this lovely MP with the Leave campaign.

To do so is utterly offensive.

I would like to understand why a man like him was able to get a gun in the first place.

That certain groups are trying to capitalise on her death, is atrocious.

var making a political point out of Jo's death is disgusting.

Hope you are proud of yourself!

Also maybe wait until police confirm things before jumping to conclusions hey

God no! I did not mean it nastily!

The first comment was when i first heard and I was thinking/ expecting / hoping that she'd not been badly injured (which seems stupid now). I spoke to DH about the horror and madness. Then, later I wrote the comment which didn't reflect my whole view at all, or even 99.99% of it . That's the problem with forums - you only write brief stuff, not your whole view.

Roonerspism - you are writing with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight having had a chance to absorb the info. It is a lot different to the circumstances in which i commented. I was writing based on the reports at that moment.

I wish I had not commented, but I did not mean it nastily. I am sorry for causing offence, and I ask you to accept my apology.

I have asked for the comment to be removed. It is completely inappropriate under the circumstances.

Actually var I didn't aim my comment at you and rather Avaaz who have started a petition on the back of it.

I think things will be quiet today hopefully

Don't beat yourself up. It was an ill thought comment but we have all done it. Don't worry.

(I'm on different political sides here. Everyone is horrified by this)

Var - I get what your saying and appreciate that it was not nastily.

Terrible thing to happen to anyone. There was nothing political.

I thought you might end up regretting that comment Var, but good for you coming back to explain it.

Colleague quipped something callous about politics wrt JC's death. Then we talked about a mutual acquaintance who died suddenly (assault in the street by someone with mental illness). Like JC, acquaintance had lived in or visited extremely dodgy places (stories about tea with the Taliban). Both survived all that, only to die somewhere seemingly very safe. :(

Situation is so shocking, we are clumsy trying to make sense of it.