Does anyone else think they know what the result will be?

[WalrusGumboot]

Just a little theory. I think Brexit will emerge victorious. My theory is that no-one predicted the Conservatives would win the general election last year but they did (despite polls and lots of support for the opposition on social media).

I think many people voted for them in order to get the referendum (Conservatives the only party to promise this in their manifesto) and why would you want a referendum unless you want to leave?

Add to that all the UKIP voters and others as well, and I think the majority of British voters will vote Leave.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on which way it will go?

Winter I did say pensioners and I think they're the single biggest bloc of votes? Please correct me if I'm wrong. You couldn't make it up - the econically inactive are going to be responsible for an economic catastrophe.

Sorry winter - just checked my post and an errant full-stop changed my meaning. Apologies for typos but I'm so stressed I can't concentrate

Great way to drive more voters into the Leave camp W8Woman.

Well yes, I agree that its easier to blame 'grabby immigrants' than point the finger closer to home, which would include this govt for its austerity programme and the 13-year Labour govt for getting pretty much every single person in this country onto some kind of benefit. Weaning the country off child benefit, tax credits and what-have-you was always going to be a hideous job for whoever decided to do it.

But to go back to the idea of a 'protest vote' for a minute - if you want to make a protest you're going to have to vote 'leave' because all the major parties have all lined up to support 'remain', including many of those who have voiced serious euro-scepticism in the past (David Cameron and Teresa May, yes I DO mean you!). So what is the pissed off voter to do? The major parties have left them nowhere else to go.

But in the 97% (or whatever) there are things we voted for that we'd rather not have had e.g. the Lisbon treaty.

RedToothBrush - I was quoting the tweet, they weren't my words.

However, IO was talking about (postal) votes, not polling. Read into the quote what you will. A shock for remain could be getting more votes than expected or it could be doing much worse than expected.

The postal votes started coming in a few days ago and apparently they are opened, but not counted, as they come in. This is what I learned today but its only from twitter so it could be wrong.

My "economically inactive" but pensioner parents do a lot of volunteering - if this unpaid, under appreciated grey haired army all stopped tomorrow the economically active would notice...... Not to mention the free childcare many economically inactive oldies provide to enable many parents to work. Be careful here when you dismiss pensioners.

I agree with means testing pensioner benefits though!

But in the 97% (or whatever) there are things we voted for that we'd rather not have had e.g. the Lisbon treaty

C'mon Var123 we voted - we got

This runs completely counter to the impression given by leave that we have absolutely no say in Europe.

Some postal vote opening will have taken place by now. I just read the electoral commission's guidance, and it appears that they get opened in batches starting soon after the first completed postal votes are delivered.
www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/175381/Part-D-Absent-voting-UKPGE-LGEW.pdf page 12, if anyone is interested.

it was pointed out to me today that this is a referendum, not a mandate - the government don't have to act on it (and probably won't if they can help it)

Christ, I hope so.

Breakingdad - what say do you have on where a train goes to? If it goes to York (say) then can you claim you had a say in where it went because you wanted to go to York too?

97/3 (if correct - source?) sounds like a good split to me. You don't always get everything you want in any group decision, so finding something that is going in the direction you want 97% of the time. However, a lot of major things in the EU are not in the UK's interests, even though we voted for them. That's the problem: we have no voice and the voices that do dominate are legislating in their interests, and we can like it or lump it.

If the govt chooses to remain in Europe despite a vote for Brexit (which will mean that over 50% of voters asked for Brexit), then that govt will not last long and the party responsible might as well disband immediately.

By that definition you could just as well say that the UK government regularly votes for stuff that's good for London but not for Liverpool. Which they do, because on balance it's best of the UK.

We often vote for stuff that is best for Europe as a whole, because it's also better for us on balance.

But why is what's best for Europe also best for us? I can see it with London/ Liverpool because we are all in one economy, so it doesn't matter if the NHS, army, civil service, schools etc are paid for by London tax payers or Liverpool ones, just as long as they are paid for and provided nationally.

However, that argument does not hold when it comes to Europe, as far as I can see. Why is helping Bulgaria or Romania or Croatia going to be good for us in the long run?

The latest poll puts Leave ahead by 7 points. I hope and believe that Leave will win.

My bottle of champagne is already in the fridge. If Leave wins I intend to drink a good amount of the bottle, if Stay wins, I shall pour it down the sink.

Oooooh good idea Rorty I'm going to do that, no champagne but I've got prosecco

Are we having a live results thread on the night of the 23rd?

If the govt ignores the result of the referendum people will take to the streets! What would be the point of all this campaigning, build-up and cost of holding the vote etc, if the result is to be rejected?

I'm voting to stay but I've a horrible feeling leave will win

I don't think the vote can be rigged but I do think the government will try to work its way out of it if leave wins.

Var123 - I cant find the original link - but this one is similar and more up to date and has it as 87%. Which to me still seems pretty good.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/11/02/does-the-uk-win-or-lose-in-the-council-of-ministers/

If we were at the other end of the spectrum then that would be something different. But again it dispels the myth that we are being dictated to.

If people want change then vote for someone different at the general elections and stop voting for UKIP people as MEPs, which is like voting for rugby fans to the FIFA council.

Great example by hugh fearnley whats his face who showed the EU can change in the face of handsitters like farage

I'm absolutely convinced that it will be Brexit and I am extremely sad about that. All my friends ( real friends not people I just know) are voting Remain. We are all between 60-70 years old, all have at least one degree and between us usually vote Labour ( most) Lib Dem ( a few) Tory ( hardly any). The acquaintances / neighbours whose intentions I know are voting out and on the whole are over 70 with no educational qualifications although 1 is in his 40s and a graduate .

Bourdic Do you friends also all read the Guardian, listen to Radio 4 and enjoy jazz?

Time for them to do a bit more research into what the future holds for the EU. The Eurozone going into meltdown, the collapse of the Euro, the ongoing migrant crisis, more and more poorer countries lining up to join.

Yes Limer - they nearly all read the Guardian, listen to radio 4 but no jazz fans - mainly folk rock and classical.

I think we will exit- it will be just like Boaty McBoatface. The more it becomes clear it's a bonkers idea, the more people will be determined to do it.

Yup. It's the only explanation as to why Trump continues to succeed in America. Why shouldn't it happen here as well?

I'm relatively young and listen to Radio 4 and am out

I was an avid Guardian reader until the attacks in Cologne on women.

Thanks for the pic BreakingDad77, just goes to show what an apathetic whinging waste of taxpayer's money Farage is. Can't believe he had the nerve to embarrass himself and the entire nation with that little boating escapade of yesterday. Way to go Hugh F-W...that's what fighting for your beliefs looks like in the real world.