Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Does anyone else think they know what the result will be?

121 replies

WalrusGumboot · 14/06/2016 15:16

Just a little theory. I think Brexit will emerge victorious. My theory is that no-one predicted the Conservatives would win the general election last year but they did (despite polls and lots of support for the opposition on social media).

I think many people voted for them in order to get the referendum (Conservatives the only party to promise this in their manifesto) and why would you want a referendum unless you want to leave?

Add to that all the UKIP voters and others as well, and I think the majority of British voters will vote Leave.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on which way it will go?

OP posts:
PoisonousSmurf · 15/06/2016 13:55

Sheeple are conditioned to stay with the flock. Remain will get the vote, but the sheeple will moan about it for ever and a day!

RedToothBrush · 15/06/2016 13:58

I think there is much sheeple herding going on. Not restricted to one particular camp though.

BritBrit · 15/06/2016 14:08

For those saying Wales will vote to stay the polls are close, the last poll was dead even, the one before gave Leave a small lead, so Wales could vote to leave

BreakingDad77 · 15/06/2016 14:31

If this is a referendum, doesn't that mean that even if there's a victory for Brexit the government doesn't have to act on it?

Yes its not binding or anything, it only gets real when we enact article 50 and effectively start the 2 year timer (can only be extended if every member agrees) to leaving

Boris et al then got to either get some sort of free trade / free movement which will be a no goer for the 'we want our country back' types or complete retreat to standard WTO.

Thats why some are wondering about a second ref

RedToothBrush · 15/06/2016 14:59

Some light reading about the process of withdrawing from the EUwww.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/504216/The_process_for_withdrawing_from_the_EU_print_ready.pdf

Its already been stated we would hand in our notice 'straight away'.

2.1 The result of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union will be final. The Government would have a democratic duty to give effect to the electorate’s decision. The Prime Minister made clear to the House of Commons that “if the British people vote to leave, there is only one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50 of the Treaties and begin the process of exit, and the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away”

2.2 The rules for exit are set out in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. This is the only lawful route available to withdraw from the EU.

2.3 But the process is unprecedented. No country has ever used Article 50 – it is untested. There is a great deal of uncertainty about how it would work. It would be a complex negotiation requiring the involvement of all 27 remaining EU Member States and the European Commission. Before negotiations could even begin, the European Commission would need to seek a mandate from the European Council (without the UK present). The withdrawal agreement would also require the consent of the European Parliament. Uncertainty during the negotiating period could have an impact on financial markets, investment and the value of the pound, and as a consequence on the wider economy and jobs.

2.4 The UK’s withdrawal from the EU would mean unravelling all the rights and obligations – from access to the Single Market, to structural funds for poorer regions, to joint action on sanctions – that the UK has acquired both during our accession to the EU and over our 40year membership. As well as negotiating its withdrawal, the UK would also want to negotiate its post-exit arrangements with the EU.

2.5 The complexity of the negotiations, and the need for the UK to negotiate adequate access to the Single Market after it leaves the EU, would make it difficult to complete a successful negotiation before the two year deadline expired. Any extension to the two year period set out in the Treaty would require the agreement of all 27 remaining EU Member States.

2.6 If the UK was to reach the end of the two year period specified by Article 50 without having reached an agreement, and if any of the 27 other Member States vetoed an extension of this period, this would lead to the UK leaving the EU with no immediate replacement agreed, without any protection under EU law for the rights of UK business to trade on a preferential basis with Europe or the EU’s free trade agreement partners, UK citizens to live and work in Europe, or UK travellers to move about freely in Europe.

2.7 Regular EU decision-making would continue while we negotiated to leave. Our vote to leave, and the withdrawal negotiations themselves, would have an impact on our ability to affect the EU’s decision-making. But we would be bound by new EU legislation up to the moment we left.

2.8 While these negotiations continued, we would be constrained in our ability to negotiate and conclude new trade agreements with countries outside the EU. The countries with which we currently have preferential trade agreements through the EU are likely to want to see the terms of our future relationship with the EU before negotiating any new trade agreements with the UK. In addition, many of our trading partners, including the United States, are already negotiating with the EU. Before they start negotiations with the UK they are likely to want those deals to conclude.

2.9 It is therefore probable that it would take an extended period to negotiate first our exit from the EU, secondly our future arrangements with the EU, and thirdly our trade deals with countries outside of the EU, on any terms that would be acceptable to the UK. In short, a vote to leave the EU would be the start, not the end, of a process. It could lead to up to a decade or more of uncertainty.

If someone wanted to be a bitch to us about leaving there is tremendous scope to do so, and in doing so make it difficult for us to make new trade agreements elsewhere.

Also note here that:
French Presidential Election is due April – May 2017
German Federal Election due August – October 2017

The likelihood of us being a political football for 2 years is high. (I'm not really sure how that gives us back control of anything).

It carries on in a similar vein. Its worth reading.

We are due to take our six month turn as president of the EU the second half of next year. This could also get 'interesting'.

juneau · 15/06/2016 15:13

I also predict a decisive win for 'leave'. Just think about it.

Lots of Tories are voting leave. Lots of traditional Labour voters are voting leave. All UKIP voters are voting leave. It seems to me (from reading the papers, watching these debates, etc), that generally speaking its the urban elite who are voting to stay, and there really aren't a huge number of them nationwide.

juneau · 15/06/2016 15:18

Oh - and lots of people who wouldn't normally vote Tory did so to get this vote. Plus, old people will overwhelmingly vote leave (and old people always get out and vote).

On the 'stay' side you've got liberals, urbanites, Scots, young people, educated elite ...

But I think 'leave' voters are waaaaay more motivated. Many of them have been waiting years and years for this vote and they can't wait to get in that voting booth and mark X next to 'Leave the EU'.

eyebrowse · 15/06/2016 15:19

The Faroe Islands voted to leave Denmark but they could not work out a way of doing so and particularly a way that would not make them a lot worse off so they are still part of Denmark

BungoWomble · 15/06/2016 15:22

Bloody hell I hope they do. If they don't I think the shit really will hit the fan.

It'll be close. I'm still hoping for remain, but fearing brexit may win.

BungoWomble · 15/06/2016 15:23

(meaning I hope the referendum gets acted on: thread moved on!)

CareFusion · 15/06/2016 15:28

I am in Wales and have already voted leave ( postal vote).... why do people think all of Wales want to remain? Could not be further from the truth in my circles.

shinytorch2 · 15/06/2016 15:30

Juneau - that would go against the bookies currently 60%\40% ish for remain.

i hope leave but think remain will nip it ( everyone take a black pen into the voting booth.....)

shinytorch2 · 15/06/2016 15:32

CareFusion - I think people think Wales will remain because it has been a big recipient of EU funds (otherwise known as our taxpayers money Wink) in the past. Problem is looking forward 2-5-10 years, Wales is rich versus some EEuropean countries and the new ones being lined up to join.... I predict it's not going to get that much going forward......

Var123 · 15/06/2016 15:38

Isabel Oakeshott tweeted yesterday evening

"1/2 Rumour circulating that @tom_watson told v high level media contact postal voting results from northern towns are 'shocking' for Remain"
"2/2 Not spoken to @tom_watson -may be untrue"

If that does turn out to be true, then it looks like it will be Brexit after all.

Banks, pension funds etc trade info without the sentiment/ spin. Until yesterday, they were putting the risk of Brexit at around 25%, then yesterday it jumped to 33% and today (following George Osborne's playing of his trump card) its 39%.

Var123 · 15/06/2016 15:42

Sorry that last one was according to Bloomberg, which services the City with info (although the briefings that the investment banks send to their clients looks much the same)

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

LondonKiwiMummy · 15/06/2016 15:45

I think we will vote leave, to my despair, as I am for remain.

post Brexit, i definitely won't be wanting to hear any Brexiteers whinging on about not having a job in our brave new world.

or indeed any of the other little inconveniences of becoming an irrelevant country in world trade or international politics.

Var123 · 15/06/2016 15:48

I think where we are irrelevant is in the EU - its fine when we agree with the rest of the EU, but when we don't, they just outvote us every time.

RedToothBrush · 15/06/2016 15:57

1/2 Rumour circulating that @tom_watson told v high level media contact postal voting results from northern towns are 'shocking' for Remain

Just to point out this is STILL only polling, NOT a 'postal voting result'. It may well be true, but its misleading to say its a 'result' in anyway.
No counting takes place until after the polls close.

BreakingDad77 · 15/06/2016 16:01

But var123 we when UK voted for something it passed 97% of the time.

That terrible EU sticking it to us for those 3% Hmm

juneau · 15/06/2016 16:03

I read an article yesterday (I think it was in the Guardian, but I can't find it now), where the author was travelling around the north of England and canvassing working class voters (i.e. traditional Labour voters), and couldn't find anyone who was voting in, expect for a Bulgarian guy (who can't vote in this referendum).

To me that means that Remain are in trouble, because Labour voters are going against the grain (and their party leaders), in voting 'Leave'.

But we'll find out next Thurs (when I know I won't get a wink of sleep).

Afishcalledchips · 15/06/2016 16:06

I am voting IN.

However, I too think that 'leave' will win. And then we're fucked.

I do hope that it's a case of the 'vote leave' people are also the type to shout about it loudly... while us quiet 'in' voters just turn up on the day and do our thing.

W8woman · 15/06/2016 16:16

I am voting "in" but think Brexit is an inevitability. Pensioners, long term dolies in northern constituencies. and the losers in life that are UKIP supporters are going to destroy the economy and still be denied the roseate 1950s Britain they crave.

juneau · 15/06/2016 16:17

Here is a similar article talking about working class concerns:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/15/brexit-working-class-sick-racist-eu-referendum

The thing is that its the government's austerity programme that's changed life for them, not the EU. But for many I think this vote has become a protest vote a 'I'm really, really unhappy with the way things are and I want them to change' vote.

Winterbiscuit · 15/06/2016 16:20

W8woman most Brexit supporters aren't Ukippers.

W8woman · 15/06/2016 16:24

Yes, agree Juneau. So much easier to blame the grabby immigrants than admit you've failed at life despite your free housing, education and healthcare.