Does anyone else think they know what the result will be?

[WalrusGumboot]

Just a little theory. I think Brexit will emerge victorious. My theory is that no-one predicted the Conservatives would win the general election last year but they did (despite polls and lots of support for the opposition on social media).

I think many people voted for them in order to get the referendum (Conservatives the only party to promise this in their manifesto) and why would you want a referendum unless you want to leave?

Add to that all the UKIP voters and others as well, and I think the majority of British voters will vote Leave.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on which way it will go?

On that note can I ask, does every vote count or is it being counted by constituency?

Every vote is a single count. There are around 300 counting stations. They each count and declare. The final count is announced in Manchester. Expected around 6am - 7am ish I believe.

One vote count make the difference between in and out.

The voting is observed by all campaign groups and they are all able to flag concerns about voting inconsistencies or ask for a recount if they are unhappy.

I think Brexit will win. So many people are voting leave in the hope it will solve all our problems. In reality it won't save those problems and will create more. I find it hard to believe we will be in the EU much longer.

Thank you claig and Red.

I think there are probably roughly the same amount of people who are definite leave voters as there are define remain voters. And they all made their minds up months ago and have no intention of changing. So the final decision will be made by those who are undecided, and their decision could be made on anything that is in the news over the next week. So it feels like a bit of a lottery. Which is worrying for such an important decision.

I'm voting remain but I have a feeling leave will win.

I thought Bremain would win but I am surrounded by hysterical Bremainers so maybe I'm totally wrong.

I see the parallel with the GE but also the Indy Ref was talked about - if I remember correctly - as if Scottish independence was in the lead and in the end it wasn't.

I think there's a gigantic fear of change and that will lead to Bremain.

Does anyone know if they are counting overnight by the way - or are they starting early on Friday?

I feel it's a once in a lifetime chance to escape the effing EU

Sadly I feel Remain will win as the uncertains will choose the Status Quo..

TooMuch, just seen an advert for Sky news saying from 9.30pm, so it's an all nighter again it seems.

I think it will be close, and could go either way. If remain win, people will shout it is rigged regardless. They always do.

I hope remain win. I feel optimistic about it.
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Imperial,* NI has had a lot of EU funding in the last 7 years (3.5bn) so I think they will be in favour of remaining.

Well, these guys have looked at the polls increasing the chance of Leave from what it was and short selling on sterling.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36515816

"BBC economics editor Kamal Ahmed said hedge funds had been placing bets - short-selling - on expectations that the value of sterling will sink further. "The bears are in town," he said."

Wrt NI. In earlier polls, NI has a large (ca.75%) remain majority. This was explained by an enormous 91% for Nationalists and s.thing in early 50's for Unionists.

A more recent poll showed remain was still overall in the majority. However, the Nationalist vote had reduced to s.thing like 75% for remain, with an increased 'don't know'. I don't think the Unionist vote had changed much. It was still a majority remain overall.

I don't know if they were different type of polls where people are likely to say 'don't know'. Say telephone as opposed to online.

Re: Bookies - Several bookies have been saying today they expect Leave to be favourites by the weekend with how money has been put on

Surely not......

I saw a quote attributed to William Hill saying that yesterday. I have been following the betting VERY closely for the last few weeks. I'm not surprised due to how the odds have been shifting.

More bets have been placed on Leave than Remain, though more money has been placed on Remain (though in part this is down to how much return you will get for your money - you need to gamble more to win less on remain still).

Either way, at present the odds are now so close, I'm not sure I would like to put money on either side personally.

Sadly, there are far too many people who wrongly view the EU as restricting their freedoms and opportunities.

I imagine - leave will win (hurray) but the EU will say NO and there will be stalemate. Sadly I think the only way England will escape the EU (since Scotland and Wales seem determined to remain) is by having their own indyref and thereby having to re-apply (or not) to join the EU
I am reminded of the Hotel California lyrics by the Eagles
You can check-out any time you like but you can NEVER leave

mollie I'm in Scotland and firmly believe there is absolutely no appetite for independence now. If Sturgeon wants to force an Indyref after Brexit then she can fire on. She will lose and then be totally stuffed.

The financial case for independent Scotland is now laughable

remain will have a landslide victory :( - at the end of the day there has been so much scare mongering that even though people may like some of what the leave lot are saying they are too scared for change and would go with better the devil they know

Rooner - I agree with what you have said. Financially Svitland are in no position to go it alone. They get a good financial deal from Westminster and the devolution they wanted. Best of both worlds? I doubt the regions and Wales will get as much EU money going forward - we are rich compared to countries in Eastern Europe. The EU is a redistribution of wealth model.

The leave campaign reminds me of the LTB brigade on MN: don't try to renegotiate the terms of your commitment, walk away. You will be poor and miserable with fewer options but you will avoid hard work.

If this is a referendum, doesn't that mean that even if there's a victory for Brexit the government doesn't have to act on it?

bobo that's exactly the point. We have ZERO negotiating power with the EU. We have tried to reform it or influence and have failed miserably

I think it's too close to call. I do worry a bit about the possibility of postal voting making the vote easier to rig (the recent election in Austria looked a bit dodgy due to the postal votes and I remember a huge scandal in Birmingham a few years ago where the electoral system was compared to a third world corrupt country due to postal voting).

I think it will be for remain. I'd like it to be for leave, but I really think people will emotionally want to leave but when it comes to standing in the ballot booth, they'll suddenly lose their confidence and go for remain.