Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

@PatriciaHolm thanks for the clarity on the 75.000 and 44,000 numbers.

Is the 75.000 just for the designated London boroughs? Or does it include the bits of Essex and Kent as well? The wording seems to imply the former in the govt statement, although no numbers specified for Essex and Kent.

The London part referenced staff, students and their families.

The last ONS mid year estimate has 168,000 11 to 17 yr olds (eg 7 year groups) or 165000 12 to 18 year olds for those 7 London boroughs - city of London not included, that would add another 500 to either group. Uplift for parents and staff and we are in the region of 450,000 to 500,000 people.

For context London overall had around 180,000 p2 tests (PCR and LF) in the last full 7 days. So an extra 75,000 for seven boroughs is a good short-term uplift.

Uptake will of course be key.

Indeed re uptake.

A quick look at Newham for example - 10 secondaries, one of which is already closed for christmas, one is closed to all but year 7 and 11, and one to all but year 11. So in at least 3 schools, the great majority probably won't be tested.

DS secondary school in Redbridge is closing to IRL schooling for Christmas today apart from key worker children. They just can't carry on due to the number of staff ill or isolating. They provided the numbers to parents and I think they have done an amazing job to have kept going this long.

@ancientgran

Luton is labour It is also in Bedfordshire which isn't all Labour and it isn't in the "red wall" so not quite the same as Leicester and also closer to London. There are probably several reasons why London and SE get different treatment, look at the financial help that was offered once London was involved, GM and Liverpool didn't get the same sort of help as soon as they were in trouble.

Doesn't really matter that some of the surrounding areas is Tory. Luton is labour and has a v labour council. There can't have been any "Tory favouring" as people imply

A labour council has managed to get mass testing and they are only tier 2 (how I don't know. They should be tier 3 every day of the week.... again goes against the Tory favouring line)

Bizarrely their awful numbers has never made too much impact on the surrounding areas

Luton is considered "east of England" not SE.

Is it just me or is anyone else worried that there has been no update yet?

@TheSunIsStillShining

Is it just me or is anyone else worried that there has been no update yet?

It does seem to be bad news more often than not!

Yes I’ve been frantically refreshing....

@TheSunIsStillShining

Is it just me or is anyone else worried that there has been no update yet?

Me four!

It does seem to be no news is bad news as far as this goes.

because of medical condition I can't drink alcohol. Very limited food types I can eat (plus now have a teeth problem). And it seems that I am running out of chocolate. I don't need this added stress in my life. Refresh ffs whatever the number is!!

Hmmm still no update as if a couple of minutes ago. Always creates a slightly queasy feeling

@TheSunIsStillShining completely off topic but DS2 bought me a chocolate orange flavoured bar of bourneville. I’d didn’t last long I’m embarrassed to confess

@boys3
One of my all times favourites! :) your DS is a very good boy, congrats, you raised him well :D

Wonder what the delay is today 😬

@boys3 pls. send you boy around with chocolate. I have ran out. and still no data.
Only thing left to do is actually make dinner. Which involves onions so I will go and shed a tear for us (in general).

Do people think they will change the plans for Christmas if the numbers start to spiral again?

Still no update??? I wonder if they have backed up a whole load of uni testing as the LF test numbers so far suggest test take up really quite low. Unless they have been saving them all up specially and now the official travel window has finished. I quite like this as a reason as although it would bump up test numbers the actual number of positive cases found would hopefully be fairly limited.

@lunar1
I don't think so. Their popularity is more important than anything. In the face of no-deal brexit they cannot go ahead with being the meanies who stole xmas.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@lunar1
I don't think so. Their popularity is more important than anything. In the face of no-deal brexit they cannot go ahead with being the meanies who stole xmas.

Ugh! Makes me anxious when the data is late. And after the big rise in cases yesterday, it seems a bit ominous....

cases 21,672; deaths 424. Working on mobile but not desktop!

ah. reverted on mobile too, though still claiming to be friday....

@PatriciaHolm can you reverse the 2 and 1 ? 12000 has a better ring to it than 21000

it would, wouldn't it!

I can see the updated data on the home page, but the detailed pages don't seem to have updated yet.

Cases going up a bit worryingly. @littleowl1's covid messenger dashboard is a stark picture of what's happening: 2 weeks ago most areas were falling but now there's a whole load more red. And Christmas is coming...

This from Guardian:
"UK sees rise in Covid hospitalisations as positive test numbers fall"

Am I misreading something? The numbers are going up, right?