Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Isn't alcohol use supposed to be one of the biggies?

Whilst not quite a sofa PHE seem to have discovered some cases down the back of a small armchair.

384 cases added today with a specimen date of 15th Nov and just under 700 overall with 03 November and 20 November spec dates. Have not looked yet at where, does not appear to fit with the MK lab issue dates.

More cases than last Tuesday I believe and fewer tests?

More than1/5 of secondary pupils were out of school last week.

@sirfredfredgeorge

We may not care about R so much if people aren't dying of covid

Given that the restrictions cause significant harm, we have to not care if people aren't dying of covid, just because the restrictions that lockdown bring (lack of exercise, over-eating, poverty, mental health) have much longer timescales on deaths doesn't mean that the harm isn't happening.

Unfortunately we don't have data on how many people have managed to replace their day-to-day moving with exercise after becoming more home bound, and how many have managed to reduce their calorie intake to make up for the 15-20% less they'll typically burn, we really need it though to find out the harm that it's causing.

Whilst I'm not saying you are wrong... but...

1. those things are not communicable issues.
2. long-covid has the potential to do way more harm and is potentially unmanageable or untreatable.

Yes, I agree that obesity, lack of exercise and alcohol problems need to be addressed. On the other hand though, they have "cures" and can be fixed. Heart and lung damage might be not that easy to repair.

So I think it's more realistic to try to not get covid than to allow spread so that people don't get fat.

How accurate are the hospital admission figures usually, and is there a "standard" lag to them?

@boys3
do you have the reported numbers for those dates and the new numbers based on the added ones?
I want to say that this is an example of them trying to massage the numbers to fit the narrative, but I'm not sure if it's not only my cynicism talking. As much as I hate it, it could be due to sheer incompetence and stupidity on their part....

Restrictions won’t remain but due to obesity issues but because SD costs sectors far too much and is bankrupting them.

As soon as we drop hospitalisation economic issues will be the priority.

@MarshaBradyo

Restrictions won’t remain but due to obesity issues but because SD costs sectors far too much and is bankrupting them.

As soon as we drop hospitalisation economic issues will be the priority.

I don't want to cloud your sunshiny day: economy is the only factor for this gov... just in case you haven't noticed....

Sunshine I’m as concerned about economic hit as I am no available healthcare ,so fine by me. Once this healthcare pressure goes no Cons MP will back restrictions. Their constituents don’t want it.

Just to update Mrex who was so kind, after much struggle, DH finally got his flu jab! It turns out mitral valve prolapse and replacement valves were taken off the NHS lists for flu jab priority a few years ago. The British Heart Foundation are not aware, and nor is DH's consultant who is gobsmacked!

It's always all about the money...

I'm not sure it's as clear cut as lockdown generally making people less healthy.

I know more people who have upped their exercise than those who have cut it down. Many have more time, or are wfh which opens up the possibility of daytime walks / runs / cycles.

I also know as many people who have gone in a health kick as who have put weight on.

I'm not saying lockdown has been good for physical health. But it's not cut and dry.

@Piggywaspushed

Just to update Mrex who was so kind, after much struggle, DH finally got his flu jab! It turns out mitral valve prolapse and replacement valves were taken off the NHS lists for flu jab priority a few years ago. The British Heart Foundation are not aware, and nor is DH's consultant who is gobsmacked!

It's always all about the money...

Gosh, really? my DH had something similar and I think is on the priority list (but in practice he's below over-65s as he's only 40s). He's been getting messages telling him to book a jab but has been unable to. He's more worried about getting Covid while going out for the jab though...

As much as I hate it, it could be due to sheer incompetence and stupidity on their part.... Which unfortunately is all too believable.

This is for flu jab. DH is now 51 but was not in their list for 2020! At present , he is at point 6 on Covid vaccine list.

Piggy yes, sorry, mine is re flu jab too.

@Piggywaspushed - great to hear, well done on getting it sorted out.

@ILoveYourLittleHat - sorry if this was something you tried, but has he tried calling local pharmacies? Many pharmacies do the jab and he won't have to pay, he just completes the form with his NHS entitlement info.

@Piggywaspushed

More cases than last Tuesday I believe and fewer tests?

More than1/5 of secondary pupils were out of school last week.

Wasn’t there a problem with the cases last Tuesday? I seem to recall eg NI recording 76 cases or something like that and a problem somewhere else as well. So not sure there is any point comparing them.

Probably true : there do seem to have been a lot of mishaps of late!

Probably didn't need of late there....

A rather grim milestone:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/01/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-75000

@piggy. Your GP clearly updates their records better than ours does. My DH still gets offered a free flu jab each year because of immune surpressing medication he was on about 5 years ago! He's not reminded them to update it and is hoping they'll put him down for a Covid vaccine too as a vulnerable under 65 (though I'm not sure they will as he didn't get a shielding letter, so suspect it's just the flu jab list that's out of date)

Our GP is great then! I got the flu jab by mistake because the receptionist booked me in without batting an eyelid.
The nurse asked why I was getting it and I simple said I booked it. I did offer to not have it (and pay for it) if they are in short supply, but she reassured me they have enough for vulnerable ppl and gave it to me anyway.
I would have thought that on booking they would check

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@boys3
do you have the reported numbers for those dates and the new numbers based on the added ones?
I want to say that this is an example of them trying to massage the numbers to fit the narrative, but I'm not sure if it's not only my cynicism talking. As much as I hate it, it could be due to sheer incompetence and stupidity on their part....[/quote]
yes, although the additional one are fairly spread across a number of regions and council areas. No one council has any particularly big number added, so low teens at worst. Whilst there are always various corrections up and down going back months, this lot do stand out but are at least quite recent.

Quite separately the number reported today with a Monday (eg yesterday) specimen date is almost 1600 as opposed to c.500 reported last Tuesday for the day before. Hopefully that is due to tests simply being reported more quickly rather than a harbinger of anything else. Last Monday (in England this is) by specimen date was 16,166 as compared with 23.704 the week before. So really we need a good percentage decrease as cases for yesterday start to feed through.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55142152

Vote has been passed - 291 to 78

Thanks @boys3 !

At multiple points in my career we ran simulations on how to break stuff or how to manipulate data to show specific desired outcome. Than had to figure out how to close those loopholes so they can't happen. So it is all very possible that I'm seeing things that are not there simply because of "training" and past work experience :)

Also at uni when I was doing my journalism ba we had 2 semesters on how to re-write the narrative to suit certain facts/opinions. We had this training so that we will be able to spot it in the future and thus we -the new generation of journos- will be less prone to being led by our noses :) a lot of good that did...