Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Oh Chaotic I absolutely do notice ,I just don't know how to translate my feelings about the huge injustice into practical action .

I feel so politically powerless and hopeless about government .

[quote Chaotic45]@ceeveebee you think that is slow. Try living in Leicester. Nothing has been done, and we have to sit and just watch the big guns being rolled out elsewhere whilst we remain in tier three having spent just 3 weeks out of lockdown since March.

I don't begrudge any region getting help. However, it really is incredibly unfair and it is hard to settle knowing that your community matters less than someone else's.

We really aren't all in it together and it is very sad. [/quote]
What they have done in Leicester (or not done) is terrible. I’m in Greater Manchester so we did get a summer of freedom before being under restrictions again from end of July, so I feel some of your pain but not anywhere near as bad as Leicester.

I think anyone with a brain has to feel for Leicester, what can we do? Are your MPs doing anything, I don't know who your MPs are so don't know if there are any senior people in there but I think I'll go and have a look.

Just had a look, is it right that all your MPs are Labour? I wonder if areas with Conservative MPs are getting priority and if so that is a scandal.

If London boroughs like Barking, Newham, Tower Hamlets etc, are the ones getting the schools testing, that's not a Tory bias (in this case).

@ancientgran The majority of MPs in London are Labour and the majority of London Boroughs are controlled by Labour councils - 21 out of 32.

I think it’s unfair the bias London seems to be having, but if I look at it generously it could also be due to the proximity to Christmas and the fear it will spread out through the country and up to more vulnerable age groups.

Does anyone know if there’s data that breaks down positive tests by age group in each region? That would be important data for the Govt. to provide now - if it shows 60% positives in London are 12-18year olds compared to say 15% in Hull that would support this approach, but if they don’t provide this data people will assume it’s a London/SE bias.....

Luton is labour...

Only caught a garbled list on the bbc news channel about the list of areas for increased testing for schools. I’ve deliberately not used the m word. Some overlap with the areas with the current 7 day highest rates for 10-14s and 15-19s, and I’d hope of course the decisions have been made on a more granular level of age, probably at year group level.

10-14s

Runnymede 1169 per 100,000

Basildon 781

Medway 692

Boston 659

Woking 638

Broxbourne 631

Swale 620

Thanet 605

Hartlepool 602

Kingston 595

Havering 552

Waltham Forest 546

15-19s

Swale 887

Runnymede 760

Medway 696

Basildon 651

South Kesteven 633

Thurrock 632

Maidstone 631

Broxbourne 625

Kingston 582

Tonbridge 557

Havering 555

Bexley 523

Wow! @boys3 hard to argue that there’s not a problem in those age groups with those numbers....

Unfortunately 10 and 11 year old are at primary school. I am sure they won't touch primaries.

I feel for Leicester : I think it is appalling (and actually symptomatic of a general political attitude form both sides to the Midlands) but I wondered whether the London thing is a panic about social mobility partly and spread around the country and, also, that they seem to be very specifically able to pinpoint an age group to play whack a mole with. In Leicester it was pockets of communities, infecting across many age groups iirc?

I’d be interested in how people would define mass testing.

Slovakia according to a recent BMJ blog with a population of 5.4 million tested 3.6 million people 67% of the total population, and 97% of the eligible population aged 10 to 65

In contrast the enhanced testing in Luton covered around 8% of the overall population based on the data published in the weekly surveillance reports.

Leicester was a little higher verging on 10%

Liverpool has had just past 180,000 LFTs in total. These of course will include care home testing, key workers, universities etc. However that overall figure represents 36% of the total population as a rouge guide.

University mass testing, all very quiet on the numbers front. I can’t imagine why that would be.

Apparently 44,000 at home kits to be issued for the latest East London, Kent, Essex bits. I must find the full list of council areas that these are going to. 44,000 could then be compared with the secondary / sixth form age group population for those areas. How many actual tests that will be issued and then completed remains to be seen.

@lurker101 yes, although there will be some population differences

The Havering actual 7 day case total for their 15-19 rate is 77, the number for south Kesteven is 47 and broxbourne is 33. Medway is 112 but Runnymede 42.

All however have super high rates for that age group. Go back a few weeks and we’d probably find similarly high rates in other parts of the country though.

The majority of MPs in London are Labour and the majority of London Boroughs are controlled by Labour councils - 21 out of 32. I think more ministers live in London than Leicester which is also a factor.

Luton is labour It is also in Bedfordshire which isn't all Labour and it isn't in the "red wall" so not quite the same as Leicester and also closer to London. There are probably several reasons why London and SE get different treatment, look at the financial help that was offered once London was involved, GM and Liverpool didn't get the same sort of help as soon as they were in trouble.

Sorry the red wall reference was wondering why areas that I thought the Conservatives would be hoping to keep on side don't seem to be getting the attention I would expect, not that it is Leicester.

Not that I think anywhere should get special treatment but don't see why it is always London.

The only reason to treat London differently (it's a stretch): the density of the population is very high.
I haven't looked up other big cities in the UK, so I might be grasping straws.

Apart from this I cannot see any other logical reason either.

It’s London because of economic reasons

Which is not as much as a negative as U.K. needs it

@boys3 - The 44k is just the home kits "for school staff"; apparently there will be another 15 MTUs with an additional 75k for "staff, students and their families" in those boroughs.

www.gov.uk/government/news/targeted-testing-to-be-offered-to-children-in-north-east-london-kent-and-essex

News on university testing finding very few positives:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55267010

Presumably this is because so many of the students had it in September and October.

Data from here

data.london.gov.uk/dataset/office-national-statistics-ons-population-estimates-borough

suggests those London boroughs had a population in 2015 of 11-18 year olds of 231,807.

so 75k kits, if all taken up by students would be roughly 30%.....

I agree. I think it ripped through the student population (well, the social or communal living sections) and there's a level of immunity.

Not data but DD in Bristol ( where there was a later peak) says no one is testing positive now an, in nearly all the cases she knows, close housemates, partners and contacts didn't get the infection. The testing was widespread and easy to access, so not a case of people being asymptomatic.

Isolation for contacts reducing to 10 days: mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1337380758000979968?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet.

Not sure if it's ripped through all students, my dd peers all did isolation etc in the run up, not wanting to affect their families on return , so ther might be a behavioural aspect after students felt blamed for the September rise