Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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Has anyone posted this:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/04/delay-in-reporting-uk-coronavirus-cases-risks-further-spread-say-scientists

We are updating the data....do not refresh until 9.38pm ....

Figures on way, website refreshing...

23,000!!!!

fuck

22,291
With the message ''The cases by publish date for 3 and 4 October include 15,841 additional cases with specimen dates between 25 September and 2 October — they are therefore artificially high for England and the UK.''

Oh the number went up from when I saw it to now!

Fuck. And there I was thinking the Liverpool score was the biggest numbers shock I'd get tonight.

@Piggywaspushed

This is a concern:

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/04/gp-surgeries-england-left-waiting-flu-vaccine-supplies-covid

Certainly DH has not had his invitation from his surgery yet.

I work in a GP surgery and think the biggest problem this year is the demand. On a normal year we chase around trying to get people to come in and many of those eligible don't. This year everybody wants them and many who do not normally take the offer up are clamouring to be ahead of even those who do have it annually. I have an appointment next week at my GP as NHS guidance now states if you are entitled to a free vaccination you should access this at your own GP. I am entitled to an annual jab due to asthma but DH has been told those aged 50-65 with no health concerns will be done in a second round if stocks remain

GPs are getting a really unfair rap at the moment in my opinion. We have remained open throughout with a system of telephone triage, video calls and some F2F appointments. As part of my job I ring patients and find, fairly often, if I suggest someone needs to speak with a GP I get the response that they can't as GPs can't or won't see patients. This is not at all the case but the media have convinced people that it is.

I’m glad they added that message re artificially high!

And how many more days are going to be like this, or does the message mean this is the end of it, I'm not sure?

wtf does this mean
they are therefore artificially high for England and the UK.

artificially high? wtf

15,000 additional results reported over 3 and 4 Oct according to the site, but it's still a big increase.

Wow! I see why they wanted that to be as late as possible.

Is that the last of the catching up, do you reckon? I hope so.

The cases by publish date for 3 and 4 October include 15,841 additional cases with specimen dates between 25 September and 2 October

So maybe 8k higher than it should be today. Still very high.

If you add together the last two days and then delete the extra 15k, and then divide by Terry, that means an average of 10k the last two days. Roughly.

Divude by two not Terry

@Frazzled2207

wtf does this mean they are therefore artificially high for England and the UK.

artificially high? wtf

To be honest if they are for previous dates, that means those were artificially low then? It also means we may have more added for today a few weeks down the line, how can we know what is actually going on with the way these figures are reported.

What are the deaths and hospital admissions?

wtaf

@Regulus

Fuck. And there I was thinking the Liverpool score was the biggest numbers shock I'd get tonight.

Sorry I shouldn't, but this made me laugh

Deducting the 15841 leaves 19992, which is still quite high figures spread between the 2 'daily reported figures'!

I can't see prior to the 30th but the figure for that day is showing as 9466 for me.

Really hoping that's the figures up to date now.

If that's an extra 15k over the last 2 days that still averages out as over 10k over the last two days.

This is rubbish.

This is shambolic. A leaked report suggest data scientists are alarmed as it becomes impossible to calculate R or really work anything out.

Also, this in The Guardian:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/04/leak-reveals-possible-harsher-three-tier-covid-plan-for-england

Does anyone know when the next briefing is going to be held, I noted they said there would be weekly ones so assume Tuesday at 5pm again. I feel they need to be asked lots of questions regarding these figures and the way they are reported so people like me can understand the significance.

I hope the public/media broach the subject with them as this must be concerning many others too

Wtf. Surely they can't be this incompetent? It has to be a strategy of some sort surely?