Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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[quote Augustbreeze]@IloveJKRowling schools aren't using masks because the DfE effectively won't let them.[/quote]
This is appalling isn't it? I can't get my head around it...

One possibility is to mandate masks in class where there has been 1-2 positive cases, to avoid sending home an entire class or year group to isolate

Or indeed wear masks if the teacher or a student is ECV - since the DfE doesn't allow them to WfH

"This government study ondouble testing for airport arrivalsshowed that
on day of arrival, only 7% of infected people showed as positive

However, after isolation, a 2nd test picked up 86% of those infected on day 6, or 98% if tested on day 10"

I find this confuddling. The accepted wisdom seems to be you must get a test within 5 days of symptoms appearing, or it will be about useless. Yet this government study claims testing at 10 days picks up 98% of infections?
Which is correct? (sorry if this has been covered before, I haven't read all threads)

Schools that can, are opening windows and fire doors.

If viral load is a factor this could be helpful in large classes where they're together for many hours.

@Saisong - following infection, symptoms may not appear from 2-42 days. The usual span is 3-5 days and the majority who are going to get symptoms get them within 14 days, which is why quarantine was set at 7 days initially back in March, but updated to 14 days when the longer infectivity period became known. Once someone has symptoms, the test is most effective from 1 day before up to 5 days after showing symptoms, because it's measuring how infectious someone is to others any the infectivity drops massively longer into the infection.
So, if someone is infected on the last day of their holiday, a test would not yet show them as positive. By day 3 of returning they might get a positive test, by day 4 they most likely get symptoms. But some might not test positive until right at the end of the period, even though they will become infectious.

Or indeed wear masks if the teacher or a student is ECV - since the DfE doesn't allow them to WfH

I think this would be eminently sensible but unfortunately would serve to draw attention to the ECV status of child or adult if the rest of the school is not doing this.

Given the evidence, it seems it might be better for any schools where there are ECV students or staff to just adopt mask wearing for all those who can.

The anti-mask culture in the UK is truly bizarre and so unscientific.

You'd have thought the DfE would welcome masks at least because they don't cost much and don't require any addressing of the ridiculously large class sizes, crowded classrooms, and lack of teachers / TAs.

Maybe it's because they want schools to appear as normal to try and hoodwink people into thinking coronavirus has gone away? I just don't understand, it makes no logical sense what they're doing in UK schools. I think it undermines everything else they're doing. (and as we've seen with pupils isolating, and bubbles and schools closing it's pretty far from 'normal' anyway)

Anecdata so scroll if you don't want to read: Today coming back from drop off my normally sensible friends who have socially distanced all year so far (until the kids went back) were walking along shoulder to shoulder having a good old non SD chat. Because 'our kids are in school together all day so it doesn't matter'.

@cathyandclare
taking an interest in Leeds uni because I went there! I am just wondering if (some) students are getting their tests via usual rather than uni means and not actually reporting them to uni. I'm not sure they would 'have to' as long as close contacts were isolating? Or possibly more likely they are going through the test and trace system and somebody somewhere just hasn't joined up the dots yet.

@IloveJKRowling

Or indeed wear masks if the teacher or a student is ECV - since the DfE doesn't allow them to WfH

I think this would be eminently sensible but unfortunately would serve to draw attention to the ECV status of child or adult if the rest of the school is not doing this.

Given the evidence, it seems it might be better for any schools where there are ECV students or staff to just adopt mask wearing for all those who can.

The anti-mask culture in the UK is truly bizarre and so unscientific.

You'd have thought the DfE would welcome masks at least because they don't cost much and don't require any addressing of the ridiculously large class sizes, crowded classrooms, and lack of teachers / TAs.

Maybe it's because they want schools to appear as normal to try and hoodwink people into thinking coronavirus has gone away? I just don't understand, it makes no logical sense what they're doing in UK schools. I think it undermines everything else they're doing. (and as we've seen with pupils isolating, and bubbles and schools closing it's pretty far from 'normal' anyway)

Anecdata so scroll if you don't want to read: Today coming back from drop off my normally sensible friends who have socially distanced all year so far (until the kids went back) were walking along shoulder to shoulder having a good old non SD chat. Because 'our kids are in school together all day so it doesn't matter'.

... I prefer the German policy of allowing staff, students, or those with an ECV family member to WfH - they have to produce a doctor's certificate first

It does cost some money for additional staff, but that is available
and it takes organising for secondary school especially, so that students are taught by suitable WfH subject teachers,
but it seems to be working (as I've not read any complaints so far !)

However, until the DfE allows this, then masks in classes with someone ECv is probably more feasible than trying to enforce masks for all classes

• much more difficult to oppose protecting a specific classmate or teacher with many still objecting to mask-wearing as a general rule

iloveJk I'm hearing similar a LOT.

I really think they need to address 'risk accounts' and the importance of minimising contacts to stop the spread.

Like a colleague at work takes the view that they could sit in a pub with them, so they don't need to social distance with xyz.

But they would realistically only go the pub with say four other people in their friendship group - so four close contacts, maybe once a week.

Instead, they would have around forty close contacts...common sense dictates that this would increase risk.

In Scotland the guidance is that nobody in school has to wear a mask but anyone can if they feel more comfortable, and NS has spoken out in briefings saying that nobody should be made uncomfortable for their choice. It's not a whole-UK attitude really.

Some schools are allowing mask wearing.

Our school is allowing teachers to do so on medical advice ( which could include anxiety). A handful have asked to and are wearing masks or visors. The children seem fine, interestingly the staff themselves have reported they have found it a barrier only when working with the real little ones on reading and phonics.

We also allow children to where parents request it. A small handful of children are, although the number has dropped. Parents are responsible for ensuring their child is aware of how to wear and use a mask properly. None of the parents of the younger children have so far requested to wear masks. Our borough is fine with this approach.

Re ECV children ‘standing out’ - one of my children has SEN ( sensory issues) so wouldn’t be able to wear a mask - if mask wearing was compulsory he would ‘stand out’ so I’m not sure that alone should be a reason for requiring whole class mask wearing ( although I get you could argue for reduced transmission). He also has greater difficulty with the teachers wearing masks due to how he processes information - I don’t use that to argue against mask wearing but just to note that there are downsides for some children.

The problem with the school not mandating mask wearing is that it puts off children who otherwise would like to. My daughter would like to but hell will freeze over before she's the only one doing it in a class of 28.

But I think personal choice shouldn't be as big a factor as reducing transmission. Agree where there are ECV staff/ students then they should be wearing masks but I'd be surprised if it happens.

Children aren't allowed to say they don't want to wash their hands 'because they don't want to'. There are some children (those with eczema) who are exempt from this for medical reasons too. So it just doesn't make sense.

And arguably washing hands does a lot less to prevent transmission of coronavirus than masks since it's primarily transmitted via the respiratory route.

Agree that Germany's method seems sensible (allowing ECV staff and students to WFH) but requires money which is probably the stumbling block. But the bigger difference with Germany is their excellent test and trace which allows them to stop community spread before it gets out of hand - not so in the UK.

Many countries have children wearing masks from the age of 6 all day so I don't really see the mental stumbling block.

Risk budgets (anecdata): the problem here is choice. I am very sympathetic to my friends actually. For both families, both parents WFH so almost their entire risk budget is taken up with sending their kids to schools. So they've decided to completely ignore all SD rules between families. Whilst they do go shopping and do some other socialising, it's all with SD and/or masks.

It does seem rather strange when your children are literally sitting touching shoulders for 6 hours in an enclosed environment breathing each others' air to then have to tell them to separate once they get out of school and a bit weird that the parents would do so too. I know they were against schools going back as is - they are being forced to accept that risk with no other option. That's when you get people who are pissed off and don't comply with other nonsensical rules.

atm, optional mask-wearing seems best,
maybe with compulsory masks for corridors, stairs and other tight spaces, where learning is not going on.

I ahve a small number of students who choose to wear masks, and it is honestly fine.

Our school is no longer following DofE guidance. ECV children are allowed to stay at home and are being taught by the ECV staff who are in school but in single person office only, they are uploading all subjects and supporting the children at home. They have no deregistered.

The problem is with optional mask wearing is that in secondary teens tend to be very self conscious and if the overall feeling is that it's useless, not something that is a good option, etc than even the kids who want to wear them won't. My son would be perfectly fine wearing one, but he refuses to go in being the only one in class with a mask on. He also argues what's the point really, as it is only him and not the whole school. (hence him staying home)

I don't think that breaking transmission should be an ethical or political question. It's a scientific one. See asian schools.

Compulsory masks fir corridors and communal areas (unless exempt) compulsory for canteen - if you are exempt from mask wearing you have to bring packed (get pp packed lunch) and masks optional in lessons apart from in four rooms with no ventilation when they are recommended. 1800 student senior in low numbers area.

DS school most of the teachers wearing masks/visors. From next week kids are wearing masks everywhere except lessons/eating but can wear in lessons if they want

Option mask wearing: my daughter said "Mum, there's nothing worse at my age than standing out"

The adults in the room need to model what's expected and what will work.

Personally I'd prefer masks than handwashing given the choice (obviously not a choice as you can do both but it just seems bizarre to push the handwashing when the virus does not primarily transmit via touch).

It's not black & white "go with the science" at this stage

There are always conflicting rights and harms / benefits to be balanced, according to how serious the situation is:

A student or teacher who cannot medically (including PTSD wear a mask has no choice but to be the odd one out,
whereas someone merely self-conscious about wearing one can do so if they really want to.

Masks would very probably become mandatory at some stage before deaths reach the 200+ daily level - if they ever do -
but atm there does not seem to be sufficient consent for this to be politically possible

I'm in NI, my older two are at school in Belfast (they're 12 and 15, so in their 2nd and 5th year). The pupils and teachers wear masks in the classroom and everywhere else apart from outside at break and lunchtime. The younger one only moves between 2 classrooms in a day, the older one, in her final GCSE year does obviously moves much more frequently. They have sectioned all of the school grounds into areas where each class can stand at break/lunch time so there's no mixing and its alternate weeks for the canteen otherwise they eat in the classroom. Each school is taking it's own decisions, most of their friends schools have masks only in corridors. Apparently the kids are compliant, there was a lot of grumbling at the beginning but it's been fine since apparently.

The teachers in my youngest ones primary school class wear visors, they have a very similar set up for outside space.

What about a child who doesn't want to be bullied for being the only mask wearer but is scared their ECV parent could die if they catch coronavirus? Is that fair?

The teachers, fair enough, they're adults, but I think it's unreasonable to expect children to decide to stand out. If masks aren't actively promoted by the school, children won't wear them even when they want to and are scared by not doing so. Unless they're an exceptionally confident and self assured child.

I agree BigChoc there is a clear ‘go with the science’ as yet particularly for primary.

And I don’t want to derail but as I mentioned abject there will be children ( like my DC) who are unable to wear masks. They equally have a right not to be bullied and stand out ( or forced to have a packed lunch as per the suggestion above!) particularly at this point when the balance of risks is still seen by many as not falling definitively either side of the argument.

Many parents and teachers also do not support compulsory mask wearing.

Should read isn’t a clear .. apologies!