Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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Has there been any reports yet as to where these figures have come from?
Surely if it's a few labs (or area for example) then someone would have noticed, wouldn't they?!

Genuinely cannot believe we are still being threatened with fines/prosecution for not sending our children to school in these circumstances.

@Shitfuckoh

Has there been any reports yet as to where these figures have come from? Surely if it's a few labs (or area for example) then someone would have noticed, wouldn't they?!

Doing a bit of a random search around a number of widely separated geographical areas suggests that all areas have gone up more than would be expected for a day, which suggests the issue is at least England wide.

That said, Manchester has gone up 1,054 on its own today! And Liverpool 899, and Leeds 968. that's 13% of cases in just 3 areas. So there are definite clusters too.

That’s quite a lot of misplaced results!

Confused by results could someone explain the results tonight please.?

It's nearly an extra 2k per date between 25th September and 2nd October, assuming they're shared equally.

How on earth was this missed?

Jeez. Does anyone remember when Whitty etc were saying we needed to ensure numbers were below 1,000 per day or lockdown should kick in?

Wtaf

Eek

Lockdown needs to be done properly if it’s happening again.

I’ve just added up all cases declared from September 25th to today for a total of 79507. That’s an average of 7950 cases per day for the past 10 days.

What are the deaths and hospital admissions?

33 and 422

This is a breakdown by date from RP131 on twitter

"An issue was identified overnight on Friday 2 October in the automated process that transfers positive cases data to PHE. It has now been resolved."
Well that's specific enough, the integration script as suspected, so it has to be linked to timings. I see we now have a day with over 9000 cases by specimen date. That's quite crap, but I was braced for worse. I'm getting dots now, so can't review more closely.

The ever helpful RP131's Twitter thread has this useful graph which shows cases by specimen date.

How on earth can local DPH and teams work to manage local outbreaks with the system failing like this. In my area we were running at about 80 per day (under local lockdown) yesterday this jumped to 120ish because of the backlog... today my area has 'posted' 450' cases.....

There is an official quote saying local decision making not affected but I struggle to see how an increase of that magnitude would not have been taken into thinking about a local response (I hope there was good local knowledge that was feeding into outbreak control teams)

@2X4B523P

I’ve just added up all cases declared from September 25th to today for a total of 79507. That’s an average of 7950 cases per day for the past 10 days.

But with the figures the way they're being reported, we don't know if the 25th & 26th (for example) were one figure, with then genuine increase leading to almost doubling today. I don't know what the 'amended' figure for the 25th / 26th was, I'm just saying due to these issues, I'm now struggling to work out whether cases are rising quicker.

Hopping over from the higher education threads and seeing some familiar names here.... this is bad!

@2020hello

Confused by results could someone explain the results tonight please.?

It would seem that there has been a problem in collecting the positive results from around the UK, which was identified on Friday. This has led to the discovery of an extra 15,841 cases that should have been announced spread over the week or so prior to that, but weren't. So they have all been announced today, but relate to specimen dates going back over more than a week.

Does that help...

Does anyone remember when Whitty etc were saying we needed to ensure numbers were below 1,000 per day or lockdown should kick in?

Only he has never said that....

1,000 cases a day translates into 10.6 cases per 100,000 people per week which was a pretty low number even during summer.

The potential warning indicators discussed back then were 20 cases per 100,000 people over 7 days for enhanced monitoring and 50 cases per 100,000 people over 7 days for further restrictions. The latter is equal to roughly 5,000 cases a day.

Of course, we are now way past this threshold but it's useful to get the facts right.

Utter shambles. Am so angry we are being failed like this

And why isn't this hitting headlines? Like last night, it seems to be being ignored?

@Jano69

Hopping over from the higher education threads and seeing some familiar names here.... this is bad!

Welcome, this is good!

Sky and guardian have picked it up, bbc...... still waiting......

@herecomesthsun thank you, in shock....

I figured they had released them after the cut off for the press... printed press at any rate. Maybe?