How likely is it that schools will close?

[user246854]

What's the likelihood of them actually closing down all schools anytime soon ?

Luckily for me if they do I won't be massively affected as I work in primary school but can't help thinking about the parents it will affect.

If I'm able to (if we're allowed out etc) I will definitely offer to help out with childcare (I.e Dd classmates Mum is a single parent and a nurse) so others can continue

Some have already closed - ones which have cases directly linked to them such as staff or parents who have been diagnosed positive. As the number of cases grows, it only makes sense that the number of these type of closures will grow too. But I’m not so sure about ALL schools.
Italy closed all schools when the number of confirmed cases was about 3000 and the death toll was about 100. I reckon we’re a few weeks away from that, but I’m no expert.

Taken from BBC:

The delay phase would focus on trying to prevent cases from rising too sharply, pushing the peak of the epidemic out of the winter period and helping health and social care services manage the flow of patients, she said.
Scientific advisers are due to review the evidence next week on measures such as restricting large gatherings, she said.
Dr Harries said they needed to "balance the benefits" with minimising disruption to people's lives and the economy, as well as ensuring that they are implemented at the time when they will have the most impact.

I think the time to close schools will coincide with the Easter holidays.

The government's chief scientific advisor was on breakfast tv this week saying no point shutting down large events eg the london marathon as spread there would be "minimal". He also said there were no plans to close all schools maybe one or two affected ones "on a case by case basis".

Can we all just do the rare thing of... 'wait and see'?

All this speculation is making me lose faith in humanity.

I’m in the UAE and schools, universities and nurseries are closed for a month (and maybe even longer) Complete nightmare for working parents!

I think it's incredibly unlikely that all schools will be closed down.

Schools with confirmed cases, yes. All schools on England, no.

We could have the same number of cases as Italy next week. That's all it took, 7 days. I suspect they will close schools eventually to try and dampen it down, probably extend the Easter holidays by a week.

I also don't think it will happen that all schools will close. During the Swine Flu outbreak in 2009 it was reported that schools would probably have to close and, despite there eventually being c.700,000 cases, they didn't.

There are 25,000 schools in England alone. i don’t think they’ll be shutting them all any time soon. Except for Easter hols in about 4 weeks anyway.

Even if they close the schools, the current guidance for schools which do any sort of boarding (even part-time, flexi-boarding) are to stay open. Which I think is madness.....keep everyone there so they all get it? Are they going to keep the staff there, even those who live out? I can't understand the thinking with this.....

Is that to take into account that some of those schools will be residential schools for children with complex needs and that some will be for children with parents who cannot quickly return to the UK (e.g., working aborad).

Why are people so sure that schools won’t have to close when they are in other countries? What’s different about the U.K.?

If it gets to the point that they need to close, they will close. Whether we get to that point is another matter. They are putting it forward as a vague idea now to prepare us for it possibly happening.

Even if they close the schools, the current guidance for schools which do any sort of boarding (even part-time, flexi-boarding) are to stay open.

There are definitely some boarding schools that would close if necessary.

I think there may be some that will close in the run up to Easter, leading to a longer Easter break.

They will all close eventually, but should have done already.

Some boarding schools are remaining open over the Easter holiday to accommodate those who cannot return home.

Closing schools needs to be done In conjunction with other restrictions for it to be effective. Dd has had no school since 23rd January and as everything else is shut people are staying at home and this Is the most effective measure ime.

What’s different about the U.K.?

Ofsted
Presenteeism
Government
Stiff upper lip
Stubbornness
Boris Johnson

Need I go on?

@noblegiraffeoble you're so right...now I think about it before the holidays makes absolute sense, or even after. Well done!!!

They will all close eventually, but should have done already

Why? What do you think you know that the people in charge of putting measures in place to manage the outbreak don’t?

We can see from China that closing schools and other public places is effective.
In my province of 70 million we have circa 600 cases and no deaths. We are 280 miles from Wuhan.

My eldest has heard teachers talking about the Easter holidays being moved forward and maybe even tagging week(s) on. It does make sence that if they must close they tag to the school holidays so that children are missing as little schooling as possible especially for those in crucial year groups.

I really really hope it's likely.

I can't image the awful affect on children of loads of gp dying like Italy, sick parents, wondering if they will die as well.

Then not being able to access hospitals because they can't cope with flu, corona and all the other seasonal illnesses at once.
Health care workers like the China dropping dead, falling ill, beds full, all around us total fear and panic... More terrifying figs everyday.

I'd much rather things closed now so we can try and avoid the worst of it.

Butterfly dc with lots of gp going at once won't have the best chances anyway. Even if they weren't close to the gp it's the fall outs that come with death, the administration, family issues...

I'm sure exam boards can come up with fair measures for those doing gcse and a level. For all other dc everything can wait.

I think the government is hoping that they can hold off closing a schools as the Easter holidays are soon.