How likely is it that schools will close?

[user246854]

What's the likelihood of them actually closing down all schools anytime soon ?

Luckily for me if they do I won't be massively affected as I work in primary school but can't help thinking about the parents it will affect.

If I'm able to (if we're allowed out etc) I will definitely offer to help out with childcare (I.e Dd classmates Mum is a single parent and a nurse) so others can continue

[IsisCam]

Why? What do you think you know that the people in charge of putting measures in place to manage the outbreak don’t?

The information is all out there for everyone. It’s just that for a variety of reasons most people can’t interpret it.
We now know with reasonable certainty that several millions of people are going to need intensive care treatment during the coming year and the medical care system will be completely overwhelmed. A lot of these people are gong to die without any access to treatment. Some are not going to die of coronavirus but just due to absence of basic medical care which we are now taking from granted. This will have long-standing consequences for about any aspect of our lives well into the future.
All of the above is just a consequence of three numbers: the rate of spread of the virus , the rate of complications, and the amount of doctors and nurses in the uk.
Eventually the government will take about every available measure to slow this process down, closing the schools would be effective so will be done. I doubt they would like to discuss all this on breakfast program or whatever it was, because I foresee that the only consequence for most people would be a decision to hoard even more toilet paper and pasta.

[Hoik]

Several million people are not going to need intensive care treatment, that is utter rubbish and would be the ultimate worst case scenario which many experts have said is not likely to happen. China has been hardest hit so far and did not have several million people needing intensive care, did it?

Its scaremongering like this which leads to people stockpiling 500 rolls of toilet paper and making their own hand sanitiser from hair gel and whisky. FFS.

[Cherrypie32]

Agree with IsisCam above. It will happen. 1-2 weeks extra of Easter holidays to start with I imagine. Do you think Italian,Chinese and other governments are just falling for media scaremongering?

[Babytigerrr]

We now know with reasonable certainty that several millions of people are going to need intensive care treatment during the coming year and the medical care system will be completely overwhelmed

Oh we know that do we?

Its possible, sure. We cant be certain that it WILL happen.

[Michaelbaubles]

By the way, it doesn’t matter what you overhear teachers saying, there’s not one single teacher in the country who actually knows what will happen so they’re just as much in the dark as everyone else and their conjecture is worth the same as the next person’s. Trust me, there’s nobody who secretly knows what will happen, except possibly Dominic Cummings. Teachers will find out the same way as the rest of the population and probably at precisely the same time. I’m not expecting to get any forewarning or chance to prepare.

[cologne4711]

I am not sure schools are spreading the virus anyway. Kids don't really seem to be getting it. Yes there are a few schools where pupils or teachers have had it but they are few and far between eg Churston in Devon.

Everyone seems to think kids are superspreaders. There is no evidence of that.

[PointlessAddict]

I don’t doubt that they will close at some point for at least a couple of weeks but why should they have done now? Most people won’t be able to interpret the data that’s out there true but the government will have people whose job it is to do so. If they thought schools should be closed now they’d have done so surely.

I never thought I’d say this but I think they are doing a pretty good job of managing things. Any response has to be proportionate. It will clearly get worse before it gets better but given they’re now talking about a peak at Easter (or were earlier) I think reports of millions needing intensive care all at once are a bit overblown. A semblance of normal life still needs to carry on and hysteria and panic isn’t going to solve anything.

[cologne4711]

Perhaps they should consider closing swimming pools like they have now done in Italy (interestingly after they closed schools, and still only in Lombardy and their new extended red zones). Going swimming is about the only thing I am mildly concerned about.

[Thethingswedoforlove]

Why especially going swimming cologne? I swim a lot and hadn’t even occurred to me that it could be a place of increased risk?

[BeardedMum]

I asked in another thread but I don’t think I got a response whether people would still go to the gym and swimming pools. I don’t want to give up exercise, but I have been sent home from work as my company has sent home 50% of the workforce to work remotely and been told to minimise socialising

My prediction is school closure 2 weeks before Easter holidays to extend the holiday.

[AvocadoOwl]

The Easter school holidays will present spreading issues of their own so that's not going to be a panacea without some pretty strict rules about travel and local out and aboutery.

Half term ski trips didn't do us any favours.

[Babytigerrr]

Will private nurseries be forced to close or will they be able to do what they want?

[VivaLeBeaver]

If they extend the Easter holidays are they going to take steps to close down all the holiday clubs? Because otherwise they may as well just be in school.

[PointlessAddict]

They can’t tell their staff to minimise socialising @beardedmum they don’t get to control people when they’re not at work, and I’d be bloody telling them that too

[BeardedMum]

Yes obviously they can only advise us not to socialise, but I already have cabin fever so socialising as normal. Don’t miss the commute at all!

[PointlessAddict]

I hear you, I am hoping we implement home working soon for that reason

[mac12]

How likely are schools to close?
Increasingly likely if Prof Whitty, who was directly tagged in the WHO Tweet, reads the latest research out of China:
twitter.com/doctorsoumya/status/1236378362886660096?s=21
Frankly embarrassed for us as a nation right now.

[VivaLeBeaver]

Obviously that’s good for children that their symptoms are milder but worrying from a pandemic point of view that they’re just as likely to be infected. I wonder if we currently have lots infected but their symptoms are so mild they haven’t reported them?

[BestZebbie]

Is it the changing rooms you are worried about at swimming, or the actual pool? I'd think (with no medical knowledge) that it would be hard to catch a surface droplet infection whilst submerged and moving around in water (unless someone sneezes in your face, as always). So if the issue is communal changing rooms, at least cubicles stop most people coughing directly on you (not the people in there right before you, admittedly) and you could hand wash/shower on your way out and when you get home?

[Divebar]

They can't just shut school across the country unilaterally without impacting massively on the delivery of essential services. ( unless you're proposing parents carrying on working?). Children in Italy are off school for a month but they're not self isolating so what's the point of that? ( parents are taking care of each other's children so they can carry on working.... children are out and about in playgrounds and parents are in work) Interestingly that report posted above stated the median recovery time was 32 days so we will perhaps start to see even greater numbers coming through it over the next couple of weeks.

[Hoik]

Closure of facilities and workplaces alongside strict social distancing (e.g., stay at home except for going out to get essential supplies) only really works in authoritarian countries such as China. It tends to work less well in countries where people are used to freedoms, choices, and autonomy such as Italy or here.

I know of several people who have symptoms and by symptoms I mean the actual published symptoms of fever, dry cough, aches, flu-like illness, etc. All have been in contact with someone recently returned from an affected area who is also showing the same symptoms, and none of them have reported this as they're adamant that they just have the flu. I don't think for one second that they are the only ones and there will be many others across the country believing they have "just the flu", not reporting it, and spreading it around. Reports I've read on Italy have stated that they believe many more people than recorded actually have it but have not sought medical advice and are either asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, or unwell but coping at home with self-care measures.

[MyHipsDontLieUnfortunately]

@cologne4711, you're minimising which is unhelpful to anyone in the long run. You need to wake up and realise that this is going to be a difficult period whatever your conjecture about who is and isn't at risk.

[ShanghaiDiva]

@Hoik
Social distancing worked in China as the govt closed everything so there was nowhere to go. Additionally, non residents could not enter compounds (all compounds have security guards /entry measures) so you could only have contact with household members and those who lived on your compound.
I also think you are overlooking one key factor: we practised social distancing because we were scared. Numbers were going up, there is no vaccine, incubation period is long...

[SisterAgatha]

ShanghaiDiva just want to say that although the subject matter obviously isn’t great, I’m enjoying your posts and have been reading since the start. I’m really glad you are posting, I’m finding it very reassuring

[SisterAgatha]

Also, there is no point closing schools now, they need to close at the optimum time to cut down the chance of reinfection when they open again. If they go too early they’ll have to be closed for much longer.