How likely is it that schools will close?

@Jumpingintotheabyss I agree, the first trouble is always the least.

I think easter will be 3 weeks or maybe 4. Universities break anyway, lots of private schools have a 3 week break. It might be regional.

It would seem sensible to extend the Easter holiday if the situation continues to deteriorate.
We were already on holiday in China for cny so it was relatively straightforward to extend the holiday. With the Xmas break and cny, my dd has only had three weeks at school since 13th December.

If they close schools now the next step is full on lock down. Which will bomb the economy. Closing schools will have a big enough impact as it is.

In ds class 2 parents are carers, 1 nurse, a nursery worker, a social worker. That's just the mums, not sure what most of the dads do.

I am ok, I wfh so will continue as normal most of the day. But those other parents need to get to work.

Corona virus is serious. We have 3 seriously compromised people in our immediate family. But so is the economy. Without a stable economy everything else crashes. Its not just about being able to afford to pay for holidays and home improvements, it's being able to afford to feed yourself and your kids. With so many already in poverty, already suffering from malnutrition etc how many will suffer and die from poverty, the effects of which will last a lot longer.

If you are worried keep your kids off. Self isolate yourself and your family. Take the consequences of you personally not going to work. Have your shopping delivered. Hunker down at home for however many months this takes to pass.

But some of us are as worried about money and just surviving financially as what we are the actual virus. Plus those who work in front line jobs are needed.

If the schools close now, we will be in full lock down in 6 weeks. Which will decimate everything.

The need to slow and reduce the risk of it spreading needs to be balanced by the needs of the wider economy.

And anyone on these threads of disaster and doom who doesn't pay for the flu joab every year regardless of your risk category is a hypocrite. Flu might not be quite as bad but it still kills. And you might not need it but you can spread it just the same way as CV.

Won't happen. Not with the sheer obsession with attendance rates in this country. Or if it does, it will be very selective i.e., major exam years will be required to attend for revision while the others are let off the hook.

Our school is still going ahead with a ski holiday in a couple week's time--because it has been deemed too expensive for the school to collectively cancel and refund pupils than it is to "carry on" and potentially quarantine a handful upon return.

I know the secondary schools in my area are quietly preparing for shutting, so teachers are making sure there is plenty of work for students to access online. Even if it was just hot-spot towns, or individual schools I think it is best to prepare that they will, whilst hoping that they wont.
But as someone who works in a school, I would happily help out childcare wise for those that don't. I do think that it would be a time where we would really need to pull together as a community and work together.

Probably time to reconsider the importance or otherwise of issues such as attendance rates.
I have been living with this situation since January and my perspective has changed with regard to what is important: my dd missing weeks of school is not important, keeping her happy and healthy is.

Still nobodies addressed the fact that a lot of kids off school will be in childcare mixing with other kids. How will it help?

Ime closing schools will only be effective if you also close child care facilities too. Naturally this causes huge problems for working parents.
My dh is in HK. Schools are closed until after Easter and he has some staff coming in one day per week and working from him every the remainder of the time as children are too young to be left at home on their own.

But a lot of people cant work from home. My dp cant. I probably could but i cant imagine work would do anything to help me out in that respect. So id not get paid.
Our bills and mortgage wouldnt get paid. Then what?
A lot of people will be in the same boat.

Exactly Baby, this is a huge problem with massive economic consequences.
In China it was slightly easier as the govt extended the national holiday so everyone was already off work and stayed home but continued to be paid. However, this did not help people who were self employed.

Germany, France and Spain all have more cases than the Uk and I don’t think that they have shut all their schools yet. But I could be wrong.

I am assuming the attendance rates will be adjusted for any period that schools are closed. I am sure the EWO won’t be visiting every family.

I am assuming childcare facilities would have to close too. Not sure about childminders. Thing is if children are still mixing with each other but just not in a school setting there doesn’t seem much point in closing the schools.

Probably time to reconsider the importance or otherwise of issues such as attendance rates.

Yes

I wonder what impact it would have if the government removed fines for parents for absence and gave them the choice whether or not to keep their children off without financial penalties?

Good point about childcare though why close schools if children are still going to clubs, childminders etc and I guess that goes for clubs/activities like dance, swimming

I presume that small groups of children getting together for childcare is much less of a risk than hundreds (thousands in some secondaries) getting together every day for school?

"England’s Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty has said school closures would have a “marginal effect” and so school closures would only happen if the outbreak reached the worst-case scenario"

They wont close unless cases of CV become significantly higher and push us unto the next phase of the plan.

A school near me had a confirmed case last week. They closed on Friday for a deep clean. Back to business as usual on Monday.

I feel as if I'm living in a parallel universe. I just cannot get worked up about this at all.

Proper flu kills over 10,000 every year, nobody seems to panic about that.

But they are talking about 500,000 deaths on top of the usual flu. That’s a huge number.

500,000 is worst case scenario, it's been stated that it is highly unlikely this will come to pass and the reality will fall somewhere in between worst case and best case.

well, what's 1% death rate (worst case) of 6.6 million population.
Worst case scenario is inevitable now as we have taken no precautions at all.
Mild to moderate cases include pneumonia, we aren't looking at a bad case of flu here.
Those able to get online beyond their speech being monitored are saying what it was like. As soon as they report, comments are taken down by the authority, but it's scary what they are saying.
It can take up to 6 weeks to be able to walk again in some cases. It's on youtube.

Ah yes, youtube. Very reliable source.

Your tin foil hat will protect you devlesko.

So youre absolutely certain that 660 thousand people WILL die?

Really?

I don't need a tin foil hat, I'm just not a sheeple who believes everything I'm told.
all these people believing the gov give a stuff about the proles, it's laughable.
carry on working and oh, your childcare.

But you are believing everything youre told! That x amount of people WILL DIE.

Nobody knows for certain.

Does mocking people who will struggle make you feel better?

Do you think mocking people who need to work is going to help your cause?

IME, anyone using the word "sheeple" is talking bollocks.