There are several recent articles that say Iran is losing control of the Strait. They are getting no oil out and the U.S are helping the Gulf States export some oil
There's losing control and there's losing control.
Since the war began, Tehran has claimed it has laid mines in international and Omani waters in the strait. The International Maritime Organization in June said about 80 had been placed in vital shipping lanes.
US President Donald Trump’s claim last week that “all mines” in the strait’s international waters had been removed or detonated — confirmed by the US military — surprised many onlookers.
Trackers had reported that three Gulf-based US ships normally tasked with mine countermeasures had been outside the region, in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, since at least early June.
Minesweeping an area of sea even in peacetime is a painstaking process that can take months. Specialised vessels must snake up and down the waterway, cutting mines from their moorings and shooting them when they start to float.
But in this case, US Navy divers worked in small teams using inflatable-hulled craft. They located Iranian mines with the help of robot boats and submersibles — such as the US Navy’s Common Uncrewed Surface Vessel — operating towed sonar arrays.
These devices, containing high-resolution, side-looking sonar sensors, can see objects such as mines on the ocean bottom at startlingly high resolution. That enables them to sweep large areas with minimal risk to crews...
“That is usually followed up by a navy diver who’s got to get in the water and approach the mine, and then put a charge on it and destroy it,” said Bill Hamblet, a retired US Navy captain who often operated in the Gulf.
He said it was a “very small, lightweight kind of force”. The US may have staged some operations from the USS Miguel Keith, a floating “expeditionary mobile base” attached to the Gulf naval forces, Hamblet added.
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Shipowners and security advisers said they were optimistic that the southern half of the strait, close to Oman’s coast — through which the US has been guiding ships — had genuinely been cleared, while doubting that the entire strait was mine-free.
Only a trickle of commercial ships have been travelling through the strait since the war started.
One risk is missile and drone attacks by Iran. But the threat of mines, even if they are not actually present, is in itself enough to scare off shipowners and force insurers to quote eye-wateringly expensive cover, up to 10 times the prewar cost. For a typical supertanker that could mean insurance costs of about $10mn.
The power of that threat has led to an information war. Tehran has dismissed the US mine clearance claims, with deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi saying in late August that “no one except Iran knows the location of these mines”.
On the same day that Trump declared the strait mine-free, the US Navy-directed Joint Maritime Information Center said there was a “continued risk of drifting or uncharted mines”.
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The question is whether shipowners will feel ready to send vessels through. That would require confidence that they can keep their ships safe from missiles and drones as well as mines.
The US said it would seek to prevent fresh mines from being laid. “Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed,” Trump posted on social media last week.
Military analysts say the regime has thousands of Maham mines, akin to those used in the second world war. Some sit just below the surface and detonate when a ship hits lead horns on the mine itself, while others operate by detecting changes in electromagnetic fields as vessels pass overhead.
Iranian media has claimed that at least two tankers struck mines in the past week. An Iranian military spokesperson on Thursday claimed Tehran had laid more mines close to Oman.
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“It’s hard to know what to believe,” said Ethan Connell, assistant director of Taiwan Security Monitor and an expert on mines. “Iran is certainly trying to re-mine.
“It’s always possible the [US] navy missed some. But the bigger and more pertinent issue, certainly the most annoying and expensive one, is the threat of re-mining.”
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At the same time, said a tanker industry executive, “it doesn’t take much to put a mine back in because there is a lot of small-boat traffic going across Hormuz every night”.
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The uncertainty is Iran’s trump card. By claiming that mines remain, it has managed to exert control.
Ships have been forced either to comply with Tehran’s recently established Persian Gulf Strait Authority and request permission to pass through the waterway — angering the US and potentially contravening US sanctions — or to risk taking the route that hugs the Omani coast, which the US has said is mine-free.
Hamblet said: “The Iranians have realised that their strongest card is the perception that they control the Strait of Hormuz. If they can convince the world that they can threaten the strait, that’s their strongest source of strategic leverage.”
Conversely, the US does not necessarily have to prove every mine has been removed; it simply needs to establish sufficient confidence that shipping can resume.
That will be a challenge when about one in 30 ships are being attacked by missile and drone strikes at present, according to maritime security advisers.
Hamblet said: “The bigger game is on the information side. That may be as important, if not more important, than what’s actually happening in the water or on the bottom of the strait.”
(FT 6.9.26)