US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

[RedTagAlan]

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

I know what I mean by Alice in Wonderland in relation to comments on this board and you attempting to define my meaning - let alone lecture me on it - is laughable.

Quote "On these threads, we've also previously discussed the swivel away from buying US military aircraft and tech"

On that, it is worth mentioning Trumps reaction when Canda decided to go with SAAB for some of it's military buys.

Canada opts for Swedish surveillance planes over US bid (thehill.com)

I recall he was not happy.

From the Telegraph:

“Iran’s former president has called for a referendum on whether to continue fighting the US.
At the weekend, Hassan Rouhani called for an end to the war if a ceasefire was in line with the will of the majority of the Iranian people.
Addressing a gathering of former provincial governors, he said that the country’s aims should be put to the public.
He said: “It is very important that the framework of our national goals is clear to ourselves first, and then we present it to the people.
“We say to the people: our plan is to fight the world’s big powers for another 20 years. If the people say they accept it, very good, let’s continue. But if the people do not accept it and show us another way, do we not want to accept that?”
While Mr Rouhani did not use the word “referendum”, political observers interpreted his comments as an appeal to hold a vote.”
“Mr Rouhani called for the conflict to be ended “honourably” and in line with “the overwhelming majority of the people”, so that Iran could repair the damage it has suffered and give investors and young people a reason to hope.
A small minority “who now hold the megaphones and are making noise”, he said, were not the majority of Iranian society.
He also criticised Iran’s state broadcasting, which is dominated by hardliners and military voices, and said a national broadcaster that became “a centre for division” would lose its audience “from the president down to ordinary people”.
Mr Rouhani, who was Iran’s president from 2013 to 2021, was the architect of the 2015 nuclear deal that lifted sanctions in exchange for curbs on Tehran’s nuclear programme, and which was abandoned by the US under Donald Trump.”
“Rouhani’s ‘dangerous’ call for peace
The “sheikh diplomat”, as he was once known, has long been a target for conservatives who never forgave him for the nuclear deal, and his latest comments are a rare challenge to the hardliners steering the war against Washington.
The Fars news agency said his words were dangerous and should not be brushed aside, adding: “Rouhani does not speak out of ignorance. He knows what he is saying, and what line he is pursuing in the middle of a war.”
Tasnim, another news source that is aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), mocked the former “sheikh diplomat”, calling him the “sheikh of loss”.
Mahmoud Nabavian, a politician who is close to hardliners within the government, spoke of a “fake” division between those who support war or peace, which he said was promoted by “cowardly comfort-seekers” whose real aim was “the surrender of great and powerful Iran”.”
“Morteza Mahmoudi, a Tehran MP, called Mr Rouhani the “most hated president in the history of the revolution”.
One speaker during a pro-Islamic Republic rally threatened that people would “knock his teeth out of his mouth”, if Mr Rouhani was seen on the street, adding that the former president “should be hanging from the gallows”.
To Iran’s hardliners, Mr Rouhani embodies a world-view discredited by the war – that Iran’s security can be bought through negotiation and compromise with the West.
That Mr Rouhani can say such things at all, and largely get away with it, shows both his diminished standing and the limits of the hardliners’ reach.
Since the 2021 election that brought the late Ebrahim Raisi to power, hardliners aligned with the IRGC have controlled much of the state, pushing Mr Rouhani and his moderate allies to the margins.”
“Stripped of formal power, he speaks now as an elder statesman rather than a player, which is part of the reason his interventions are tolerated.
But as a two-term president and a cleric, Mr Rouhani retains a constituency among the millions of Iranians who voted for engagement with the West and an easing of confrontation – a bloc the Islamic Republic, its legitimacy already strained, can ill afford to turn on outright.
Some in the hardline camp have blamed the diplomatic engagement championed by Mr Rouhani and his allies for creating the opening that led to the war and the killing of Ali Khamenei, the late supreme leader.
Yet the language of ending the war has crept in from across the spectrum, and Mr Rouhani is not alone.
Mohsen Hashemi, the son of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president, has also warned against prolonging the fighting.”
“On Sunday night, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the supreme national security council, said Iran would soon declare a “prohibited zone” beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
In his first state TV interview since he was appointed to the job last month, he dismissed Mr Trump’s claims that the strait was open and under US naval control as a “big lie”.
He added that American forces were trying to slip five or six vessels through the waterway’s southern edge every day – ships that, he said, “usually get hit”.
Mr Rezaei also claimed that two days earlier, Iran had tested a “special anti-destroyer” missile over a US warship for the first time.
Elsewhere in the region, Saudi Aramco’s Jizan oil facilities were attacked on Monday, leaving Saudi officials to assess the damage after the company’s infrastructure had been hit.”

Excerpt From
“Iran’s former president proposes referendum on ending war”
Akhtar Makoii
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AL53M6gwNRPSBWmOm-uUpRQ
This material may be protected by copyright.

At times I don't know if your misunderstanding of posts is deliberate or involuntary.
For the final time. My post wasn't attempting to define your meaning, it was explaining why your meaning was wrong, in all contexts, including on this thread.
Pre emptive.
There's no need to remind me of the horse and water next.

Hassan Rouhani either heralds the beginning an important public shift in Iranian attitudes or is a lone voice speaking to the hard of hearing in power. As several comments to the article have pointed out, he might have just signed his own death warrant.
There's also the intriguing idea that it might all be a ruse to deceive the US on the fracturing unity of those in power, but I don't agree with that. However, I can believe that if the speech is reported internally, it could be sending a signal to the US that Iran is open to talks to find a way to end the war/hammer out a more detailed peace agreement than the MOU.

Can Iran even have free elections?

The Islamic Republic of Iran holds elections regularly, but they fall short of democratic standards due in part to the influence of the hard-line Guardian Council, an unelected body that disqualifies all candidates it deems insufficiently loyal to the clerical establishment. Ultimate power rests in the hands of the country’s supreme leader, and the unelected institutions under his control. These institutions, including the security forces and the judiciary, play a major role in the suppression of dissent and other restrictions on civil liberties.

https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2022

It's arrogant to tell me I'm wrong or "misunderstanding" - you're the one who seems to lack understanding re why I use the term Alice in Wonderland to describe this board.

You don't grasp my meaning so stop trying to tell me my meaning is wrong.

And speaking of illegal wars in the Middle East, let’s go back to 9/11 and then the totally illogical war on Iraq.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr4vn1e207go

It seems that the BBC are at least alleging that the Saudi Government at least knew a bout 9/11 in advance, if not actually being complicit in it. Then Bush was told by the FBI but shut everything down.

It really is an amazing story and seems to explain a lot of the strange facts around 9/11.

CNN: Scores wounded as Iran-backed Houthis attack Saudi Arabia in major regional escalation

Saudi-led coalition forces are vowing a resolute response to a wave of attacks from the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen that wounded dozens of civilians and caused fires at energy facilities.

The Saudi Energy Ministry said the attacks had caused fires at several sites in the southern region, temporarily halting some operations.

Oil prices on world markets rose by about 1% in the aftermath. The global benchmark, Brent crude, was trading close to $99 per barrel.

At least 73 people,* *including women and children, had been wounded, said Major General Turki Al-Maliki, spokesperson for the Saudi-led Coalition Forces, who described the attacks as “dangerous” and “senseless.”

The Houthi attacks drew swift condemnation from Saudi Arabia’s regional allies. Egypt described them as “a dangerous escalation”, while Jordan said the barrage was “a blatant violation of Saudi sovereignty.”

The strikes showed “unacceptable disregard for civilian lives and the security of the countries of the region,” Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said. Kuwait echoed the regional condemnation.

edition.cnn.com/2026/09/08/middleeast/houthis-attack-saudi-arabia-yemen-intl-hnk

Most important part of that article:

"In a statement Tuesday, the Houthi military said the attacks were in response to more than 100 Saudi airstrikes in Yemen over the past three days that it claimed had killed many people. It said it had fired “dozens of ballistic missiles and drones.”

The Saudi backed coalition also attempted a ground incursion yesterday that was repelled.

Looks like a lot of fires at Saudi energy installations.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/yemeni-drones-reportedly-struck-saudi-oil--military-sites--d

Looking at videos of impacts MBS may come to regret restarting the kinetic phase of this war and fighting against Yemeni's with nothing to lose and whose children MBSs blockade killed.

Iran may have captured an intact American naval drone that was deployed to Hormuz. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/09/underwater-drone-captured-by-iran-matches-american-anduril-model/

If so look for them to reverse engineer the tech (if it hasn't been sufficiently locked down) and likely share with Russia and China as has happened previously https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Iran_RQ-170_capture

🙄No need to throw a tantrum.

Strangely, that link opens on the website landing page...and doesn't move. And I don't think the PRC is at work here.
I'm going to retry with a suitable VPN.

I get the same... ahem... where I am.

Seems a pukka site. Since 2019. Owned by a Xavier Vavasseur, a Paris based site.

No reports of the site being down, all access routes I tried do the same lockup.

Maybe under attack by someone ? I don't think the PRC though. Because if that news is true, there will be a PRC team of engineers on a jet to Iran already.

That's so weird I just tested it and the link works here, text below:

Underwater Drone Captured By Iran Matches American Anduril Model
Published on 08/09/2026
By H I Sutton
In News

Click to Enlarge. The photograph, shared by Iranian sources, matches the Anduril Dive-LD underwater drone. 1. Nose cone. 2. Flood holes. 3. Short transparent ‘sail’. 4. Seam. 5. distinctive X-form rudders.
Share

An underwater drone shown by Iran closely matches the American-designed Anduril Dive-LD model. The large AUV (autonomous underwater vehicle) was reportedly captured in the Straits of Hormuz earlier today.
Iran’s IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) claims to have captured an American underwater drone. While currently uncorroborated, evidence shared by the IRGC through public channels appears credible.
The photograph shared online of a partially submerged drone closely matches the American-built Anduril Dive-LD underwater drone. As well as the overall form, numerous small details match the design including flood holes, fastenings and the small transparent mast forward.
The Dive-LD may have been used for ISR (intelligence surveillance & reconnaissance), or mine hunting (MCM – mine countermeasures). It could also, conceivably, be armed.

Reference image of U.S. sailors of the Unmanned Undersea Vehicle Group training with the Anduril Dive-LD in December 2024. U.S. Navy photo.
Dive LD AUV
The large-displacement AUV (autonomous underwater vehicle) is about 5.8 meters (19 feet) long, 2 m (4 ft) in diameter and weighs around 3 tons. It is a long endurance design intended for multi-day missions. Anduril state that it has “Extensive open interfaces, generous payload bays”, and that “the use of additive manufacturing enable rapid integration of a variety of sensors and effectors for customized defense and commercial mission sets.” From the photograph available at this time it is unclear which payload is carried.
The Dive-LD is known to be in U.S. Navy service, specifically with Unmanned Undersea Vehicle Group (UUVGRU) 1 and Undersea Vehicle Squadron (UUVRON) 3, but little has been reported abouit it. Anduril are supplying the U.S. Navy with the larger Dive-XL design, which is similar to the Australian Navy’s Ghost Shark design.
Advancing Iranian Underwater Drone Technology
The Dive-LD is significantly more sophisticated than local Iranian designs. However Iran has been a pioneer of weaponised underwater drones and builds several types, at least two of which were supplied to the Houthi Movement in Yemen. Analysis of interdicted arms shipments to the Houthis reveals pragmatic designs which have been evolved over time.
Access to the Dive-LD may further enhance Iranian underwater drone capabilities. Or possibly it will be shared with Iran’s allies such as Russia or China.

Tags
Iran, IRGC, US Navy

H I Sutton
H I Sutton writes about the secretive and under-reported submarines, seeking out unusual and interesting vessels and technologies involved in fighting beneath the waves. Submarines, capabilities, naval special forces underwater vehicles and the changing world of underwater warfare and seabed warfare. To do this he combines the latest Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) with the traditional art and science of defense analysis. He occasionally writes non-fiction books on these topics and draws analysis-based illustrations to bring the subject to life. In addition, H I Sutton is a naval history buff and data geek. His personal website about these topics is Covert Shores (www.hisutton.com)

Or are they there already 🙃😉.

My VPN didn't work either, but ChatGPT gave me lots of info ie that Reuters has the story and that a comparison of the Iranian drone photo with other accredited photos would tend to validate the Iranian claim.
Plus ALL the tech in it that would be useful.

Iran could potentially examine:

• sonar and other sensors
• navigation systems
• communications equipment
• autonomy software/hardware
• power and propulsion systems
• acoustic characteristics
• payload architecture
• how the U.S. communicates with and controls the vehicle

However, capturing the vehicle doesn't automatically give Iran the U.S. software or classified mission data. The extent of what they can extract will depend enormously on how the particular vehicle was configured and whether sensitive systems/data were protected or erased.

The big thing I'd watch next is whether the U.S. acknowledges losing a Dive-LD. If Washington does, that would move this from "credible Iranian claim" to a confirmed loss—and we'd then want to know whether the vehicle was carrying classified sensors or mission data when captured.

Somewhere in the US, someone in the navy is getting a bollocking, while in the IT control room the delete button is running hot.

Welcome to the thread @kfifki .
Unusual first post, but we have all sorts here.

So what's your take on the discussed equivalencies or inadequacies of the Iranian weapons vs a nuclear one and their effectiveness on underground installations?
How about tungsten vs aluminium based warheads?
And the effectiveness of a change to rocket propulsion in underpowered Russian weapons?
Wasn't the idea of tech guys overselling weapons capability to the political decision makers wild!
Do you think that AI would be used to reprogram drones in flight?

Quote "How about tungsten vs aluminium based warheads?"

This is one of those trick questions on unladen airspeed velocity, isn't it ?

And on airspeed velocity, that reminds me of Trump saying the US would send hypersonic missiles back in April (or was considering it), and this also ties in with Thumps Truths about the "treasonous" reports about low ammo levels. Article here -

The three reasons Trump should think twice about deploying ‘Dark Eagle’ missiles in Iran war (inews.co.uk)

From that

"US Central Command has requested the deployment of long-range Dark Eagle missiles to the Middle East, according to a report.

Centcom suggested the move was necessary because Iran had moved its missile launchers out of the range of the existing American systems deployed in the region, the advanced Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), Bloomberg reported.
US Central Command has requested the deployment of long-range Dark Eagle missiles to the Middle East, according to a report.

Centcom suggested the move was necessary because Iran had moved its missile launchers out of the range of the existing American systems deployed in the region, the advanced Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), Bloomberg reported

While the PrSM can hit targets up to 500km (300 miles) away, the Dark Eagle has a range of 3,500km (2,000 miles), meaning the new missile would allow the US to hit Iranian assets that have been moved beyond the range of the PrSM.."

This PrSM is also one of the systems that the US is reported on being low on. And even back at the start of this war, it looks like Iran could outrange the precision capability of the US in the region. Note the range of the PrSM system that I bolded above. 500km (300 miles) . That is 270 nautical miles.

And now we are getting more news of Iran trying to hit US warships. CNN feed an hour ago - "The US military struck five Iranian tankers on Tuesday, sinking one, after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US Navy warship, in a fresh escalation of fighting".

A few days ago I suggested the US were trying to move carriers closer to Iran to close the range for it's aircraft to be able to target Iranian launchers, without needing risky in-flight refueling.

Checking unrefueled combat radius of US carrier aircraft. F18 is 660 NM, carrying 2 Mk84 bombs (900Kg each) and 1 AIM-9 sidewinder. F35, Naval version, is 600 NM. Similar load I assume, or slightly more because of low drag internal bays v external on F18.

Looking at those numbers, without drawing circles on a map. I would say that is enough evidence that the US is moving it's carriers closer to close the range, because they are very low on PrSM missiles, or systems. They have wanted to keep their ships out of range, but they can't hit the more inland targets without exposing them to more coastal batteries.

And yes, it is asymmetrical warfare. So while Iranian missiles are not that accurate, they do not really need to be. Just fire lots. But the US needs precise munitions to take them out, especially if the launchers are in emplacements. Unless they go to carpet bombing.

Also note that CENTCOM appears to have been a bit more open with info earlier in the war.

And yes, it is asymmetrical warfare. So while Iranian missiles are not that accurate, they do not really need to be. Just fire lots. But the US needs precise munitions to take them out,

Ooff, sailing close to the wind there. This plus the cost ($4m per unit US weapon vs $30k Iranian drones) was one of the main takeaways in @BelleHathor 's linked video after all the tech spec. By @kfifki's unfathomable reasoning, that should also make you a Putin and Assad supporter.🤔

Moving on.
My interest has been caught by the sudden emergence of South Korea in the Iran War news cycle.

In Paris, South Korean president Lee Jae Myung and French president Emmanuel Macron discussed cooperation on security and freedom of navigation in the strait of Hormuz.
South Korea’s defence ministry said it had sent an inspection team to the United Arab Emirates to assess security conditions in the region, but stressed that the mission was intended to gather information and did not presuppose a troop deployment.
A South Korean official said Iran had expressed interest and sought explanations through diplomatic channels after media reports about a possible South Korean role in Hormuz security efforts.
South Korea’s presidential office separately said reports that the US had set a deadline for Seoul to send assets to Hormuz were untrue.
Seoul said last week it was reviewing various options, including military measures, to contribute to freedom of navigation in Hormuz, but denied reports that the US had set a deadline for Seoul to dispatch assets to the strait.
(The Guardian)

After the withdrawal of US weapons and telling SK that they need to stop expecting the same level of US defence support against the North, what signals are SK actually sending to the WH?
I suspect mixture of 'we are on your side' + 'see, we are using our own initiative' + the political message to its citizens that posturing on the ground info session does not equate to putting men and equipment into an active war situation.

But my brain latched on to the denial of a deadline to send assets. Where did the idea of a deadline initiate? Is there some strong-arming going on in the diplomatic background?

@trumpredcard

I can't see the vids. Almost all bocked where I am.

Re missiles, I get CNN and they have a clip from Jordan. Iran fired 20 ballistics. And that is a hell of a lot of patriots being used up. Screen shot attached.

South Korea. My first thought was helium supplies for their semiconductor industry. But internet restrictions seem to be limiting my ability to check on that. The last report I can get on that is from April, where they said they had enough to get through to June.

Then I thought of fuel shortage. Because they were rationing that back in April too. But again. I can't get any info on that. Latest I can see is April.

That's what happens. If a Government somewhere says something the Government here don't like, any news is just cut.

But anyway, South Korea must be under massive pressure to get the SoH open without the US making threats. And with Trump very recently siding with the DICTATOR Kim very recently, I am in agreement with what you are suggesting.

And France ? Well, they do have nukes, and SK are talking about maybe needing nukes.... so lots for them to discuss.

New world order and all that.

Uhh Such a shame RedTagAlan, Professor* *Postol really explains the technology so well. I know that many people reupload his interviews to other video hosters (I just checked VK) so if you search for him you may be able to find an interview.

On South Korea, Trump is being a total bully, if you don’t help me then I'll leave you to my friend Kim.

You're also right on SKs need for components in the Strait for their tech industry. The current prices of Tech are eyewatering with manufacturers including Intel and Nvidia announcing more price rises. The normal consumer is being priced out of the market. I found a box of old SSDs and SD cards the other day and it was like Christmas!.

I see the navalnews website is working now.

But for me, as is usual, not all the pictures load. That happens because the site passes the censors, but if they use a third party image hosting service... that does now.

Its such a pain! I can empathise a little bit, we banned Imgur (more accurately they refused to comply with a government edict and blocked the uk) and now any sites that link to Imgur we are greeted with a purple placeholder image.

Censorship hey!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzxv5gy3qo