US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

[RedTagAlan]

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

Yup. And Don Jr can look after the drugs side of things. Along with the US Coast Guard.

The U.S is in a bit of a decaying empire bind.

They are living beyond their means on borrowed money and the lenders are starting to demand a much higher price to lend to them, assuming they want to keep doing so at all. So, kind of, in a sense, Trump was being a ‘stable genius’ ,albeit a very cynical one, when he said the U.S military was the solution to the bond market’s problems.

If you can take other nations and demand a share of their wealth, it will solve your money issues. I guess, after Venezuela caved, Trump fancied a cut of Iran’s (far higher quality) oil. That isn’t going so well to date.

As said at the beginning of this term of Trump, he is the first openly expansionary president since McKinley. It’s strange, though. Denmark, for some strange reason, won’t gift Trump Greenland as a tribute, and Canada is being strangely reluctant to become a state under Trump.

It’s strange, though. Denmark, for some strange reason, won’t gift Trump Greenland as a tribute, and Canada is being strangely reluctant to become a state under Trump.

Nowt as queer as folk 😉

Do you think that the new economic sanctions cause financial stress on 'the regime' (presumably you mean the elites who rule Iran) or the Iranian women, the poor ones whom you have professed to support repeatedly? Economic sanctions hurt ordinary people. The have killed huge numbers already, likely hundreds of thousands over the years.

Regime change was what Trump stated initially. That then failed so he has switched to the nuclear issue, which he may well fail to secure too because it is clear that the US is losing and that Trump, etc have no strategy at all.
It appears that Trump got over excited by success in abducting Maduro and stealing Venezuelan resources, which he is currently boasting about, and thought he could do the same in Iran.

Also, there's terrorists and then there are 'US terrorists'.

And yet you think Israel should be sanctioned. Or is hurting ordinary Israeli's fine?

I just posted about this Trump Truth on another thread, but it is also important here I think.

Friday, August 28, 20266:05 PM Truth Social
^EXCLUSIVE: State Dept reveals Portland Antifa connection to Hamas, Iran's IRGC in sweeping terror action: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/exclusive-state-dept-reveals-portland-antifa-connection-hamas-irans-irgc-sweeping-terror-action^

I can't open Fox, but I found this alternate article.

EXCLUSIVE: State Dept reveals Portland Antifa connection to Hamas, Iran’s IRGC in sweeping terror action | The New York Ledger (thenyledger.com)

So this Italian group Autistici/Inventati, are being targeted. On my other post I detailed how this looks to me that the US is propagandizing their Government against the left in general. But that does not matter here, I think.

Of course, the group is blocked where I am. As are their services. I did find this though.

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Understanding How Businesses Can Go Beyond Compliance to Actively Promote Human Rights - July 31, 2024 at 19.39.07 (righttoconnect.org)

Check out this blurb from the above

"A/I is particularly oriented towards supporting activist movements and social change initiatives. Their services are tailored to meet the needs of individuals and groups fighting for social justice, providing a reliable and safe platform for organizing and communication"

Take a second to get ones head around this.

The US is designating a volunteer group that works to help people get around restrictive and intrusive governments as a terror org.

Well I bet the protestors in Iran are just totally fucking overjoyed at that.

Think about the implications in this. Do the US only support right wing Iranian protestors ? Is there an ideology test to be taken before one gets a free smuggled Starlink... that can be traced ?

I can imagine the conversations in the Oval Office.

Aide - " Mr President, the protests are going well in Iran"

Trump - " Send them more guns, tell them we will be there soon"

Aide - " But Mr President, our intel says many of the protestors are left wing"

Trump - " Get the guns we already sent back, Fuck them".

Yet Trumps statement on the day the war started (posted yesterday) referenced the nuclear threat several times.

I don’t know why you are so insistent that it was all about regime change, when the words from Trump himself on the first day of the war clearly state otherwise.

He stated his aim for regime change on the first day too.
In my opinion, as I've already said several times, his aim was regime change, install US puppet (see Venezuela, etc, etc) and then steal the resources and protect the dollar. That is the US's repeated playbook.
You may interpret Trump's statements/take him more seriously/not think that he lies and twists things constantly or whatever but several other people on this thread appear to agree with me. Short of Trump actually telling the truth, which clearly won't happen, no one can be 100% certain.

Why do you accuse people of “misunderstanding” just because you get challenged?

New people are allowed to post, & anyone new to this thread can name change before posting. How is their first post “stalking” you?

The point you made about sanctions and Israel is a valid one @lvndrtwn

Sanctions do hurt ordinary people as well as the leadership. That is why with the UK sanctioning Israel for example, I think we should sanction the Settler community and those enabling them rather than the whole country. I appreciate this is a minority view on here & most people want to see the whole country sanctioned.

In the case of Iran though it’s a bit different (imo) because unlike the UK & Israel, the US is currently at war with Iran. So anything they do to achieve their war goals is going to hurt ordinary Iranians unfortunately. How you treat a country in wartime will obviously be harsher than how you would treat them normally.

Ah, so you do understand that sanctions hurt the ordinary people in Iran. Good to hear!

He said, “to the great proud people of Iran … when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take”.

It was hoped that regime change would occur as a result of the war, yes. This is not something I am denying.

What I am challenging is your earlier comment that “ the nuclear thing has suddenly become the alleged US chief goal”.

Not so - it was a main goal from day 1 and was mentioned in Trumps war statement several times on day 1.

Of course I understand that sanctions hurt ordinary people in Iran. All war actions hurt ordinary people though they are not the target. Iran weaponising the SOH hurts ordinary people economically too.

Iran or the dollar? US makes an example of Banque Misr

The US Treasury on Friday labeled Banque Misr’s UAE branches a “financial institution of primary money laundering concern” and proposed cutting them off from the dollar system, marking the first Section 311 action against a third-country bank under Washington’s new Operation Economic Outcast.

The Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) estimates that between January 2024 and June 2026, Banque Misr UAE processed approximately $1.8 billion in transactions for 103 companies it assesses are potentially part of the Islamic Republic’s “shadow banking” network.

The department described the bank as “a critical node for the Iranian regime’s access to US dollars” and said its customers included front companies working for Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics and the Revolutionary Guards, as well as a company described in media reports as a money-laundering conduit for Mojtaba Khamenei.

“We also warned that Iran’s enablers cannot continue to enjoy access to the US dollar and the global financial system,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. “Banque Misr UAE decided to find out the hard way.”

Banque Misr is Egypt’s second-largest bank and is fully owned by the Egyptian state. That makes Washington’s decision to target its UAE operations particularly significant as the US seeks to persuade foreign financial institutions to stop facilitating Iranian trade.

The move nevertheless stops short of targeting larger financial institutions, particularly major Chinese banks involved in financing Iranian trade, a step Washington has so far avoided amid concerns over wider financial disruption and retaliation.

By threatening a state-owned bank belonging to a major Arab partner with exclusion from the dollar system, Washington is setting out the potential cost for third-country institutions that continue handling business it considers part of Iran’s shadow-banking network.

The warning is now explicit: institutions dealing with Tehran may increasingly have to weigh that business against their access to the dollar.

www.iranintl.com/en/202608284624

Egypt's Banque Misr said on Saturday it was reviewing a U.S. Treasury notice to cut off its UAE branches from dollar transactions over their dealings with Iran, while the UAE central bank said it had launched an urgent examination of the branches following the U.S. action.

The UAE central bank said later on Saturday it had decided to conduct a "special and urgent examination" of Banque Misr’s branches in the country, including "a forensic/in-depth lookback covering the period referred to in the statement issued by the U.S. authorities".

"The Central Bank expects banks licensed in the UAE not to expose the UAE’s financial system to reputational risks, to respect the laws and regulations of the countries whose financial institutions are used in conducting transactions, and not to misuse the advanced financial infrastructure of the UAE," it added in a statement.

www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypts-banque-misr-reviews-us-iran-sanctions-notice-uae-central-bank-launches-2026-08-29/

It’s an interesting and dangerous game that Bessent is playing.

At a time when the U.S desperately needs external investment, they risk alienating their investors. And when you read Warsh’s recent speech, it looks like the Fed funds rate will rise imminently.

That’s going to be a very difficult environment in which to auction new treasury bonds.

So, I think that they are going to be very careful whom they exclude from the USD banking system for fear of reprisals. So we are going to see a few small institutions to make Trump’s point, but nothing major and, certainly, nothing significant to do with China.

‘And yet you think Israel should be sanctioned. Or is hurting ordinary Israeli's fine?’

The difference between Iran and Israel is that sanctions would have a far better chance of being effective as Israel is a democracy.

Netanyahu and his cronies may not care but Israel is a fully integrated part of the western economy and has a (reasonably) free media.

So, both the corporate sector and individuals will care deeply. Israel knows how to stop settler violence, put E1 on (hopefully permanent) hold and withdraw from Gaza (in return for security guarantees). I suspect they would do so very quickly if the whole world threatened to sanction them over it.

Sanctions worked in South Africa which, in some ways, was similarly connected to the global economy, both financially and culturally. They hated the sports boycott too.

Ironicallly, the ‘worst’ dictatorships are best able to resist sanctions. Their populations are cowed, their media is tightly controlled and their economy is already isolated from the countries who are sanctioning them.

What I don't get is where is all the money coming from that Trump is spending. Borrowing is through the roof, he wants new planes, new ships, $1.5 trill defense budget, and near every week he is making a "proclamation" about the next thing the guv is going to pour money into. Last week it was mining engineers. Before that farmers. And so on.

He seems to have been banking on tariffs, but SCOTUS knocked that on the head and he has to repay $83 billion. Because they are a tax on folk in the US.

His cost saving ( allegedly) DODGE has gone.

And he is not talking about tax cut, which is the usual Repub thing.

I think the US is struggling for money just now, and he does not care. Just spend spend spend.

He is spending as if he was a Socialist, but spending it on Repub things, apart from tax cuts.

Here in an example. $59 Billion for Patriot missiles. That is just short of the whole UK defense budget.

Why the Pentagon's $59 billion Patriot deal is really about production (manufacturing-today.com)

When they say how many billions the Iran war is costing, it is not just the value of what they have fired. No, the manufacturers want paid upfront to expand production to replace them faster.

@RedTagAlan ,

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN

The U.S is actually getting to the point of being in serious trouble over its debt. Government debt has just surpassed $40 trillion and its cost of debt servicing is now 10-20% more than its defence budget. It also has an uncomfortable amount of this at the short end of the spectrum, so it needs refinancing at higher rates.

Trump has spent like an out of control socialist, as you correctly said.

A few years ago the counterbalance to U.S government debt was huge cash balances on large corporate balance sheets. These could be invested in treasuries and so, ultimately, total debt wasn’t so bad (public and private combined). AI investment has totally reversed this and now the large corporates are borrowers too. U.S net debt has exploded!

Bessent has taken to buying some of the debt back using printed money. This can only go on so long until the usd collapses and inflation explodes.

There is no easy way out of this:

1/ reduce spending A LOT and live within your means

I don’t think that is likely, certainly not under the current administration.

2/ print money, create inflation, and inflate the debt away

Started to happen (Bessent increasing treasury purchases) but in a small way. Very bad for poorer people and only increases wealth inequality further.

3/ The Goldilocks result.

AI increases GDP by 10% PA, it ‘solves’ health and free fusion energy and increased taxes easily pay off the debt. Not impossible but I don’t think we can count on it.

4/ tax and steel from 3rd countries.

Well, this actually seems to be Trump’s go-to at the moment! His first round of tariffs were ruled illegal but he has replaced them pretty quickly using another arcane law, and he seems to be trying to take a large % of Venezuela’s oil. I am fairly convinced that is what he wanted out of Iran too, although it’s not working out so well.

I don’t think that forging an old fashioned empire will work well in the 21st century, but anything’s possible (beside the moral issue, obviously).

The scary thing with debt crises is that they build gradually and then explode exponentially (look at 2008 and the Euro debt crisis). I do worry that we aren’t too far from one right now.

Thanks for that. I do not know much about how global finance works, so much appreciated.

I follow politics, and I just see a Trump spending non stop. The only tax cut he has done is on tips, and that is in the millions.

He spends like this though:

US is working on doubling aid to Argentina to $40 billion | AP News

It's as if he just has an Idea. Give Argentina money because he is my pal. And his acolytes scramble around trying to make it happen.

This post is excellent and well worth reading. Trump clearly has no intention of reducing deficit spending at all.
On @Newbutoldfather's points.

1 Impossible because of the US governments existing commitments to the older generation. DOGE did not work and Musk was thrown out very rapidly.
3 This is never going to happen. Even if AI does came out with some amazing discoveries, a) it won't be rapid, b) it will likely cause an unemployment crisis in the shorter term, c) it is an unworkable technology in the longer term because of the immense use of energy and water in a world where these essential things are become less available and more expensive.
4 As you say, Trump is trying-totally agree with your comment here plus Trump's comments about stealing Greenland, Canada, etc
2 This is their only option and they have been doing it for years already, particularly since the GFC. I think they will do QE on steroids when things really break (probably quite soon) and will destroy the current currency system in the process.

Do you follow Gromen's work @Newbutoldfather? He's a very smart man.

I think that's the whole point. The sanctions don't hurt the leaders. They are designed to hurt the people hoping that they will eventually have enough and rise up. So effectively the sanctions are designed to punish the Iranian civilian population for not doing what Netanyahu and Trump wanted.

I think Netanyahu and other potential leaders do care about the possibility of Israel being sanctioned, especially with the elections in October.

The Jerusalem Post reports on his recent condemnation of settler violence (too little, too late I know).

“I strongly condemn the criminal acts of violence committed in the villages of Kusra and Jalud by a handful of rioters who violate the law, cause enormous injustice to the law-abiding settler public, hinder the IDF in fulfilling its missions, and harm Israel’s standing in the world,” Netanyahu said in a statement.

Netanyahu added that security forces had ended the incident “in a short time” and confiscated three vehicles.

The IDF, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), and the police are conducting an investigation, Netanyahu said, adding that he expected the rioters to be arrested and brought to justice.

Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot also issued a response to the Kusra violence in a post to X/Twitter on Saturday night.

“The escalating anarchy of a violent minority and the loss of control over them in Judea and Samaria represent a security, leadership, political, and ethical disgrace that does not reflect the overwhelming majority of Israeli citizens, and it is a deviation from the IDF’s primary mission,” Eisenkot asserted.

Eisenkot went on in his statement to assign responsibility for the violence in Kusra and the broader issues related to the increase in violence in the West Bank to Netanyahu, saying that “this is the result of a governmental policy led by Netanyahu and his coalition partners, in which they knowingly abandon Israel’s national interest out of embarrassingly weak and dangerous political considerations.”

www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-906950