US-Iran peace agreement discussion, part 4

[RedTagAlan]

Thread 4 for those following and commenting on the above subject.

So apparently the rumours that Iran had been invited to join the Mecca alliance were just rumours, according to Iran. Strange rumour to emerge though but if the Houthi/Saudi dispute can be resolved, I don't think it will just be a rumour. Turkey receives a fifth of its energy across the border with Iran so it is anticipated that they will push back hard against these sanctions. China and Russia have already made their position clear. Because Russia is already fully locked out of Western markets and China utilizes its alternative to SWIFT, the CIPS system, they have zero incentive to comply. The last time he tried this maximum pressure campaign launched against Iran in 2018 it collapsed precisely because the global community refused to comply. If other significant economies also push back, the whole strategy will not only fail, it will backfire disastrously leading to further dedollarisation. This just looks to me like the final thrashings of a drowning man. Count down to TACO!

Re China, look who has been meeting with Xi while this is going on.

Xi holds talks with Jordan's king; visit empowers development co-op to serve as a pillar of regional stability: expert - Global Times

Xi has a full conveyor belt of these State Visits.

"The Chinese leader also exchanged views on the situation in the Middle East with the King who is on a state visit to China, which runs through August 18 to 24, the Xinhua News Agency reported. "

"The state visit marks King Abdullah II 's ninth visit to China since his accession to the throne, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry"

Trumps legacy is going to be the president who destroyed US hegemony but the idiot MAGA supporters are still going to think the sun shines out of his arse.

The new world order that Bannon wanted.

From the BBC:

“David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, cast doubt on the effectiveness of the sanctions announcement.
"With the renewed US naval blockade already strangling Iran's oil exports, the direct impact of 'economic D-Day' on Iran's energy revenues will be somewhat of a damp squib," he said.
"We suspect that the new package will have only a limited direct impact on Iranian energy flows in the short term."
He said that was partly due to the fact roughly 90% of Iran's oil goes to China, a country "which has not recognised US sanctions in the past and is unlikely to be cowed this time either".
"Generally, the Chinese are against unilateral sanctions," said Ali Vaez, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group.
"They would comply with multilateral or international sanctions, but unilateral sanctions just imposed by the US - they have always seen that as illegitimate," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
And although Iran's neighbours like Pakistan, Turkey and Iraq want to maintain good relationships with the US, they "can't really afford to cut off ties with Iran", Vaez added.
He said putting economic pressure on Tehran “doesn't work" because the Iranian regime is willing to "absorb any pain" and pass that onto its people.
Over the course of the conflict so far, previous threats have included Trump saying in April that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" unless Iran agreed a deal to end the war and unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
The US eventually climbed down from that position after mediator Pakistan intervened and called for more diplomacy.
The economic impact of the Iran war is being felt in the US and across the world. Higher oil prices have fuelled concerns over the cost of living, with petrol and diesel prices much higher than they were a year ago.

Aah, Jordan's "Tomato King" as my friends in Gaza called him whilst being bombed. A puppet leader of a family installed by the British after his ancestors were kicked out of Arabia. Both his father and Grandfather are accused of betrayal during the 1948 and 1973 wars.

[Google AI]The Tomato King" is a mock title given to King Abdullah II of Jordan by regional critics and Arab media

Agricultural Trade: The nickname arose due to continued agricultural exports—specifically tomatoes—from Jordan to Israel amid regional tensions and the war in Gaza.

Public Backlash: Critics within the Arab world used the moniker to mock the Jordanian government's maintenance of trade ties and perceived alignment with Western and Israeli interests despite widespread public anger.

Quote " Turkey receives a fifth of its energy across the border with Iran so it is anticipated that they will push back hard against these sanctions. "

Just picking this out because it slots into other headlines in the news today. About Doug Ford in Canada wanting to pull the plug on the electricity it supplies to the USA.

Ontario Premier says Canada could cut off electricity to the U.S. | CNN Politics

The art of the deal.

Apparently when he first came to power he didn't speak Arabic properly. He had to have intensive lessons.

It would be funny if they did but I doubt it will happen.

Why would Saudi Arabia want Tehran to join the alliance, given that Iran have launched missile and drone attacks against them? The rumour was nonsensical.

Saudi Arabia know that they were launching missiles and drones at US assets, not Saudi itself. Same as the other gulf states. The real stumbling blocks are the Houthis and the fact that Saudi are Sunni and Iran are Shia. If they can sort out the Houthis conflict with Saudi and their religious differences; Catholics and Protestants did; they might join up. Cooperation is better than conflict and they know that.

That’s the way you see it not necessarily how SA sees it.

@Twiglets1 ,

Yes, I think that is quite funny too.

I can just see the French missiles streaking over the East Anglian coastline towards
RAF Lakenheath, and then us inviting the French into a military alliance as we knew they were just targeting U.S assets!

You mean like German doodlebugs used to?

That was within living memory.

Edit. Not East Anglia of course.

But their bombers did.

Within living memory yes. But a lot of years plus water has passed under the bridge since WW2.

I think it's a bit too soon for Iran to be invited to join the Mecca alliance!

US President Donald Trump has said that the US Navy has removed or detonated all mines in the Strait of Hormuz - the vital waterway which Iran has largely closed since the beginning of the war in the Middle East.

"Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed," Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform.

There is no comment from Iran.

Worth the risk?

I agree with you, regarding the discussions going on in the region as to come up with a new regional security arrangement.

Russia and China have been involved in promoting this as both Iran and Saudi Arabia are part of BRICS. China was the country that brokered the detente between Iran and Saudi as fighting is not good for business and there are big plans for trade routes that will enrich everyone.

The crux of it is that many Countries in the region realise that having American bases on their land or in the region at all is no longer worth it. During the war America moved a lot of Air defences to protect Israel (extra insulting as the GCC countries with US bases fund almost everything) and these countries were left naked. As so many of the bases have been severely damaged, now is a good time to evaluate whether they will allow America to rebuild.

The problem will be whether they can successfully detach themselves, as a lot of investments are held in dollars, so could be subject to retaliatory seizure (as we know Trump cares little for the law).

The Sunni/Shia issue is not as much of a problem as there is growing realisation that this schism has been exploited by nefarious parties in order to keep people fighting. The fact that Iran are Shia and stood up for Gaza (mostly Sunni & Christian) means that a lot of younger people see the schism as arbitrary.

Edited to add: From the discussions I have from the Iranian side, the issue may be that these countries allowed missile to be launched that killed Iranians, especially in Minab.

So it will likely take years as there is a lot of distrust on both sides, but something hopefully will happen and the region can be a lot more peaceful and prosperous.

Well as Donny said it, I would think not. From CNN:

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the US Navy has cleared mines from the strategically vital waterway, including in comments last week, as he seeks to project progress amid the war with Iran. He has also insisted that the US controls the strait.

It's those kamikaze dolphins again.

What I found interesting was an interview with Professor Mohammad Marandi with Al Mayadeen, a Lebanese news agency, saying that even though Turkey did not come to the aid of Iran when it was attacked by Israel, Iran would not hesitate to come to Turkey's aid if Israel attacked them.

"The Sunni/Shia issue is not as much of a problem as there is growing realisation that this schism has been exploited by nefarious parties in order to keep people fighting. The fact that Iran are Shia and stood up for Gaza (mostly Sunni & Christian) means that a lot of younger people see the schism as arbitrary.".

I actually agree with this statement so much. Both sides, especially amongst the younger generation, can tell that this has been a tool used to divide them. This relates to the other thread on here about Western Interference being the cause of ME issues. If these powerhouses can start to cooperate properly after US hegemony is properly degraded, we might finally see peace in the Middle East.

That's exactly what we did in WWII. Bombed the hell out of France and then joined Nato with them.

Yes, I watched another interview with Marandi where he said that about Turkey.
That ability to "forgive" and send aid is a quality that many others do not possess, usually it would be seeking vengeance or schadenfreude as an enemy is destroyed.

It speaks to seeing the bigger picture though and thinking in centuries not just the here and now. Iran helped Iraq to fight ISIS in 2014 by providing economic and military aid. This was less than 30 years after the Iran/Iraq war where Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons on Iranians.

This interview with Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson (former aide to Colin Powell) speaks about how powerful the region could be if they unified (I think around 30 mins in):

Yes Britain bombed France in WW2 targeting German -occupied infrastructure. However the war ended in 1945.

NATO not formed until 4 years later ( Germany not initially invited for obvious reasons though France was). That is still rather different from the rumour that Iran would be invited to join the Mecca pact with their very recent actions against Saudi Arabia.

The ability to forgive also seen in Europe and other countries involved in WW2 who have forgiven Germany for what must have seemed unforgivable behaviour at the time of the Nazis.

Read the two examples much slower. The UK bombed German assets in France and then France joined a military alliance afterwards. Iran bombed US assets in Saudi Arabia and then Saudi Arabia may join a military alliance afterwards.