So, my postal vote arrived for the Clacton by-election...

[Username19893847477374]

It will take a moment to be visible I imagine, but there are over 30 candidates standing. Many not seriously, as we know. What a farce.

It's normally frowned upon on MN. Are you just being awkward - again?

What is frowned upon?

Betting? Naming a betting company?

Betting companies, with odds. I'm not being precious, just pointing out an anomaly.

Odds are regularly used in threads about elections, or even about politicians.

That doesn't mean you have to place a bet.

Labour are 1/33 to win Manchester today. Reform 66/1.

NF won Clacton with 46.2 % of the vote cast. The other main parties combined share was 52.7%. I think it doubtful that significant number of that 52.7% (Tory/Labour/Lib Dem/Green) will be migrating to Reform this time in the belief Farage is a fine fellow and the leaders of the parties they supported are actually encouraging them to vote Binface.

Throw in some potential support from the 41.6% of eligible people who didn't vote last time and I think it is far from a foregone conclusion that Reform have this in the bag.

Reform have abandoned the Manchester Mayor election and send all their resources to Clacton instead.

All except Nigel.

I hadn’t realised that the Manchester Mayoral elections were TODAY.

Runners are

• Sian Astley, Reform UK
• Geraldine Coggins, Green Party
• Bev Craig, Labour
• Phil Eckersley, Conservative
• Marcus Farmer, Independent
• Richard Kilpatrick, Liberal Democrats
• Marlon West, Restore Britain

Bookmaking doesn't really work on the real world.

It works on peoples perceptions of the real world.

If a lot of people are betting on Farage to win, then the odds on him will go down.

But lots of people betting on Farage, is not lots of people voting for Farage.

In fact now we have the measure of the man confirmed, I would be mildly taken aback if Farage hadn't stuck a few crapcoins on himself to lose. Because that would be a nice payout.

Maybe that's why he isn't campaigning ?

“Cats in a sack” made me snort.

Can't we introduce a Duel to the Death? Winner gets to be Leader, loser gets offed.

The thing about polling is this: when candidates are particularly divisive, people lie to pollsters about their intentions. We've seen it with Reform before, and we especially saw it in Trump's three presidential campaigns despite attempts in 2020 and 2024 to allow for known underestimation of Trump's appeal based on the previous campaigns.